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Moderate Snow Potential 4/4


ORH_wxman

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ALB dropping 0.08" in the bucket each hour for the past couple hours now... probably solid 1" or more rates per hour especially if the ASOS is under-sampling.

 

Opps... the always great GGEM blows the 6-hour forecast in Albany, NY hard.

 

Through 18z today ALB will probably get 0.3" during the time the 12z run thought there'd be nothing.

 

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Will that warm layer we saw on soundings looks like it got washed out quickly here. The brief sleet quickly transitioned to all snow. Deep deep winter

 

 

The dual pol isn't really making any further north advance...mostly just a few wobbles...we may have seen the max advancement and things should start collapsing back to the SE in the mid-levels as we go through the afternoon.

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I'm impressed with the temperatures.  My lowest maximum temperature for April since I started keeping records in 1985 is 30° and I'm sitting at 23° now. 

 

Light to moderate snow again after the pause...had 1.2" this morning.  Let's see what we can add this afternoon.

Feels and looks like mid January out there today, it's amazing for April.

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There's always some surprises in these overrunning systems...hard to pin them down perfectly. That area has always been a wildcard playing with fire on the ML warming. I remember I had a very good overall winter forecasting in '07-'08 during all those overrunning events and still had plenty of misses. They happen. I always told my clients if they complained about a bust..."it won't be the last time either". Lol.

Lol. Yeah looks like on RadarScope precip detection thingy is showing mixing and rain for the heaviest echoes. HRRR is going with a 10-1 ratio too and the snow down there will prob be very wet, get some sleet and rain on it here and there, and overall not reach its QPF potential for snow. But who knows, could be another lesson learned for these type of events. 

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Got 1 inch on driveway, 1.5 on the car roof, and 1.7-2.0 on the grass. Wish I had a board set up. I'll prob end up do a mix of car and grass measurements if I send in a report.

 

The extra is just the air trapped by the grass.  I'd roll with the car roof over the grass measurements as you almost always have a half inch head start sticking a ruler into the grass.

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I think snow is getting a little farther north, up by the NH border, than I thought, and a little further south due to slightly colder than expected temps. Everyone wins. I just hope RI/MA border make up for that dry slot earlier cause I'm in this for the forecast, not the snow since I'm not expecting more than 3in in the Merrimack Valley. We still got idk, 4 hours for northern areas, 7 hours for south shore. Half in an hour or so will yield 2-3 more for north of Pike and 3-5 for south. Question is how much of those 35dbz echoes end up being snow and sticking in southern parts? Thinking someone could jackpot 8+ in along Route 44.

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All snow here in Warwick,RI and huge flakes too, like quarter to golf ball sized. Prob snowing 1-2"/hr here. Visibility is a couple hundred yards at best. Heaviest snow I've seen here in Warwick all year. This is fricken awesome. If this can last till 5-6pm well easily verify those HRRR and NAM totals here. Prob at about 2-2.5" for the day.

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The extra is just the air trapped by the grass.  I'd roll with the car roof over the grass measurements as you almost always have a half inch head start sticking a ruler into the grass.

Good looks. Yeah unless the snow is really heavy and there's a lot of it to compact, a couple inches on uneven grass leads to some inflation issues for sure. 

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