MDstorm Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That's the most sorry probability map I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0.5 still goes through DCA on the 15z map? Yeah, still does just barely...but the overall precip contours kind of shifted east. Or tightened up, not really sure. Probably not really a difference to be honest overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like an Arlington to Rockville jackpot...Bob Chill would be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That's the most sorry probability map I have ever seen. It is a bit odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0.5 still goes through DCA on the 15z map? Someday you'll figure out that not everyone here has their eyeball glued to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Someday you'll figure out that not everyone here has their eyeball glued to DC. It's not much of a noticeable shift in the DC area, yeah, so I see what you mean. As you said in your previous post, the 0.25" contour did shift notably east from what I saw. Looked like the precip overall had a slight eastward shift, but hard to say how significant that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looking over the 12Z runs and we are really close to a good outcome. I can see several areas where a very minor tweak could tip this whole thing in our favor. Still sticking with my idea of a 1 to 3 but will definitely keep track of the next few runs to see if we can roll a seven vs. crapping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z para GFS out... decent hit IMO... esp for those around I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looking over the 12Z runs and we are really close to a good outcome. I can see several areas where a very minor tweak could tip this whole thing in our favor. Still sticking with my idea of a 1 to 3 but will definitely keep track of the next few runs to see if we can roll a seven vs. crapping out. that chance is knocking on the door with the NAM...would like to see it move...its now or never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z para GFS out... decent hit IMO... esp for those around I-95 How's it compare to the 06Z ops GFS (or the 12Z ops)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 well it's sorta mainly the zone between the spots that get precip mostly from the northern wave and then the main low. good luck figuring that one out. but that northern wave is going to keep the shield from expanding super far north/northwest and also tend to keep the low from amplifying.. just not sure how we can get a way better solution from this range. but the north trend is usually real so there's that. It's very easy actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 How's it compare to the 06Z ops GFS (or the 12Z ops)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z para GFS QPF through hr 57.... which according to dom precip type is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Psu- Good points earlier in regards to shield orientation/development of miller As vs. Bs. Thanks for the info I'm not a big fan or the srefs at this lead. They seem to do a common waffling deal like this between 24-36 hours. Been watching that all winter. Not scientific, just anecdotal Euro many many times under does the precip shield. I understand development is later and not miller A. But even if this thing spins-up a little harder a little earlier, we'll get banded based on the current spot most guidance has us now. I still think 2-3 for nova in general with the upside during now cast time of 4-5 if this thing decides to do its happy dance a touch earlier. It's march.. Sometimes these coastal waves like to intensify quicker. Seen it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z NAM looks good at the 12km level. Wetter on the front side through 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z para GFS out... decent hit IMO... esp for those around I-95 D.C. gets brushed by the good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z EPS improved a bit.. mean bullseye is 4" near Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 4km 18z NAM is juiced up pretty good on the front end. Looks like rain or a mix to start but steady snow by 00z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 we cant ever catch a break. When we need one thing to trend our way...it always trend the opposite way and then 2 other things fall apart. Seems almost impossible to get a good snowstorm anymore these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z NAM looks good at the 12km level. Wetter on the front side through 06z. I would like to get NAMd one more time before it's over. Looks more consolidated so far through 6z. Less of that split screw zone look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM has improved from 12z. It is an 18z run but H5 looks better and equates to higher qpf on the front. Gives 2-4" event over a good portion of the area on the 12km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z EPS improved a bit.. mean bullseye is 4" near Fredericksburg That bullseye looks closer to Richmond than Fredricksburg. Or I'm just bad at Geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Para euro about the same as the op but a little better than the op with the front running stuff. Still not great and same general qpf max SE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 we cant ever catch a break. When we need one thing to trend our way...it always trend the opposite way and then 2 other things fall apart. Seems almost impossible to get a good snowstorm anymore these days climo is a cold hearted b$&ch around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That bullseye looks closer to Richmond than Fredricksburg. Or I'm just bad at Geography. Your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 4km NAM is advisory level for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 1/30/2010 or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Updated point and click for my area has 2-5". Mount Holly a tad bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 1/30/2010 or bust if we get the same adjustment west we got the last 36 hours with that January teaser before the blizzard we will get crushed. Where is that Ravens guy to bring this home??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 4km NAM is a solid 2-4".. Winchester area would like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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