weatherCCB Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS was just noise imo. Basically the same as 12z in general. I think I've seen enough to know what to expect for my yard. Bar 1.5" Max 3" Min .5" The min would happen one of 2 ways (or both). Simply get screwed with precip before sunrise or never hit freezing with .2 qpf overnight. Hoping for a chance at 40" for the season. Would be great way to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS was just noise imo. Basically the same as 12z in general. I think I've seen enough to know what to expect for my yard. Bar 1.5" Max 3" Min .5" The min would happen one of 2 ways (or both). Simply get screwed with precip before sunrise or never hit freezing with .2 qpf overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS was just noise imo. Basically the same as 12z in general. I think I've seen enough to know what to expect for my yard. Bar 1.5" Max 3" Min .5" The min would happen one of 2 ways (or both). Simply get screwed with precip before sunrise or never hit freezing with .2 qpf overnight If 850s were right at 0 I would be more nervous...we have some wiggle room. Maybe further west would mess that up. Either way we lose some to warm ground but time of day is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Did u guys see the follow up wave? It's not awesome but would be some snow tv I think...and that may be the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 ame="weatherCCB" post="4032351" timestamp="1456956344"] If 850s were right at 0 I would be more nervous...we have some wiggle room. Maybe further west would mess that up. Either way we lose some to warm ground but time of day is money. We'll see how it goes. I'm probably ok with surface. Meso's don't have me going above 40 tomorrow so it's a fairly quick trip to freezing in the late evening. If I hit 43+ tomorrow afternoon then it gets more difficult. I think 1.5" is a pretty good middle ground for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 We'll see how it goes. I'm probably ok with surface. Meso's don't have me going above 40 tomorrow so it's a fairly quick trip to freezing in the late evening. If I hit 43+ tomorrow afternoon then it gets more difficult. I think 1.5" is a pretty good middle ground for my location. You'll get that. Wintry weekend. But I'm with you that it's fine if that it the end. Even the best March still transitions to spring. If I get 2 in it puts me over 30. More than I ever thought in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Being out west and in the shadows of the mountains I think I am lucky to break 1 inch. Coating my min 2 would be my max. Even with a little colder temps, I am so on the edge! A nice fringe band would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 You'll get that. Wintry weekend. But I'm with you that it's fine if that it the end. Even the best March still transitions to spring. If I get 2 in it puts me over 30. More than I ever thought in December. Same here, I'm close to 30 on the season, and it would be remarkable to accomplish that after the December torch. Granted, of course, nearly all that fell in the blizzard, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Has anyone else seen the "snow" (not snow showers or flurries) listed in the point and click for central MD for Saturday Night and Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Has anyone else seen the "snow" (not snow showers or flurries) listed in the point and click for central MD for Saturday Night and Sunday morning? Yes I also have 30% chance of snow Saturday night and Sunday- any thoughts on that? Haven't seen it discussed here anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yes I also have 30% chance of snow Saturday night and Sunday- any thoughts on that? Haven't seen it discussed here anywhere. It's been on guidance but it's a weak and sheared vort. Euro twins kinda have it. The one thing going for it is overnight timing so whatever falls should be snow and not rain. But it won't amount to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Has anyone else seen the "snow" (not snow showers or flurries) listed in the point and click for central MD for Saturday Night and Sunday morning? Shows up closer into the DC area, too. I think that's the follow-up disturbance that the GFS has been showing, might be good for some snow TV as BristowWx mentioned above. (Gah! Internet cut out at random for no apparent reason again...f'ing Verizon modem!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 FWIW GEFS looks real nice.. mean is 4" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 FWIW GEFS looks real nice.. mean is 4" at DCA. Does this include whatever happens Saturday night cuz the 18z op gives a few inches then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Does this include whatever happens Saturday night cuz the 18z op gives a few inches then... A few? Like 3? Didn't look that impressive but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Does this include whatever happens Saturday night cuz the 18z op gives a few inches then... No, this falls before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 A few? Like 3? Didn't look that impressive but who knows Ehh a tiny spot of 2.5... It looked better on tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 No, this falls before Nice. A bit of upside possible? Here's to hoping for March dynamics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 1-3 in the zone forecasts for Thursday night for most of the region per 630 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 1-3 in the zone forecasts for Thursday night for most of the region per 630 update Advisories by afternoon package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD402 PM EST WED MAR 02 2016VALID 00Z THU MAR 03 2016 - 00Z SUN MAR 06 2016DAYS 1-3......MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TO THE MID ATLANTIC/COASTAL NORTHEAST...A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE ARRIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN WILLSTREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH/TNVALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH THURS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACEWAVE OVER NRN KS WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MO BYTHURS MORNING AND THE TN VALLEY BY THURS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTINGWITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLEUPPER FORCING... WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPICSNOW. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE... DUE TOCONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON QPF... FOR A STREAK OF SNOW FROM EASTCENTRAL IA THROUGH NRN IL INTO NRN IN AND WRN/SRN OH. THEN LATETHURS THROUGH FRI... THE FCST SHIFTS TO THE NRN MID-ATL STATES.THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS JUMP TO THE NC COAST AND AN ASSOCIATEDSURFACE LOW JUMPS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NC COAST. THIS LOW ISEXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND GO THROUGH THE BEGINNING STAGES OFCYCLOGENESIS... THUS ALLOW AN INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT TOFILTER BACK INTO THE ESTABLISHED COLD SECTOR. HOWEVER ENOUGHSPREAD REMAINS WITH THE GUIDANCE... THOUGH THIS IS NARROWINGCONSIDERABLY TOWARD A TROUBLING DIFFICULT FORECAST. WPC WENT WITHA BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS AND NAM WITH 09Z SREF MEAN ON A WIDEAREA OF SNOW THURS NIGHT/FRI BUT A POTENTIAL STREAK OF HEAVIERAMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NRN NECK INTO SOUTHERN MD TOTHE DELMARVA COAST AND POSSIBLY LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SRN NEWENGLAND. THIS FORECAST STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO VARY BUT THENARROWING OF SPREAD WITH THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TOWARD MORE OFCONSENSUS IS ALLOWING MORE CONFIDENCE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERTHE MID-ATL STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Advisories by afternoon package? Agreed. A passing flurry Thursday night. GFS should be along to confirm this idea in 30 min. I will stay up to witness the demise of this threat and winter 15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Advisories by afternoon package? Agreed. A passing flurry Thursday night. GFS should be along to confirm this idea in 30 min. I will stay up to witness the demise of this threat and winter 15-16. http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2016/01/29/stephen-colbert-moderates-a-trump-vs-trump-debate/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z Strange...because the 18Z NAM was actually somewhat of an improvement over its 12Z (and earlier) runs. But yeah, the latest 21Z SREF definitely moved things noticeably farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2016/01/29/stephen-colbert-moderates-a-trump-vs-trump-debate/ LOL....that's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Advisories by afternoon package? Agreed. A passing flurry Thursday night. GFS should be along to confirm this idea in 30 min. I will stay up to witness the demise of this threat and winter 15-16. I'm on medication for this but sometimes I forget to take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z I haven't tried to access total precip on those but I'll bet my total actually went up slightly on them. Also, is this slowing slightly? When you look at 24 hr precip at 21z Friday you can see the differences on the western edge from the 15z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'm on medication for this but sometimes I forget to take it LOL....just messing around with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I haven't tried to access total precip on those but I'll bet my total actually went up slightly on them. Also, is this slowing slightly? When you look at 24 hr precip at 21z Friday you can see the differences on the western edge from the 15z run Looking at the 24 hours that would cover the event, it appears to me that the 0.25" contour is similar on its western edge (maybe expanded a tad more west?) comparing 15Z to 21Z. However, the northern edge in MD is definitely "collapsed" more to the south/southeast. As is the 0.50" line. Not sure if it means much, or if the SREF is the most useful now, but not good to see anyhow. Interesting that the 18Z GEFS actually upped the snow amounts from the plots posted a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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