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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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Freezing Rain advisories for the upstate expire at 7pm... seems like they should be extended until midnight??

 

Edit: nevermind, they've been extended until midnight as of 6:33pm.

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Mike Dross (@MikeWDross)

2/15/16, 18:25

Significant Freezing Rain likely across Northwestern North Carolina overnight. Power Outages quite likely. #NCwx pic.twitter.com/FW9nKOYNMz

HRRR

pTF98ey.jpg

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It still warms up later tonight, but could be heavy damage before hand, when heavier precip gets here and we are all around 28-29, could be rough!

 

Yeah, exactly. I'm surprised at how strong this wedge has been, especially with little/no heavier precip to keep it in place. I thought for sure that would allow it to scour out more quickly. 

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Nothing like extending it a few hours at a time, lol

Yeah products should never be adjusted to account for varying wx conds.

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This is starting to look more and more ominous for the upstate. We could still see temps rapidly warm above freezing when the heavy precip gets here though.

 

If they don't, we could be looking at widespread power outages with a 1/4+ inch of ice accretion maybe followed by gusty winds from a squall line.

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This is starting to look more and more ominous for the upstate. We could still see temps rapidly warm above freezing when the heavy precip gets here though.

 

If they don't, we could be looking at widespread power outages with a 1/4+ inch of ice accretion maybe followed by gusty winds from a squall line.

yeah I think the heavy qpf will overwhelm the remaining low level cold, but she's been a heck of a wedge.  Like some folks said yesterday.  Each one is a little different and we learn something from everyone of them.

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This is starting to look more and more ominous for the upstate. We could still see temps rapidly warm above freezing when the heavy precip gets here though.

 

If they don't, we could be looking at widespread power outages with a 1/4+ inch of ice accretion maybe followed by gusty winds from a squall line.

Agreed John and Chris on WYFF are nervous right now as wedge extends almost to Atlanta and as I mentioned in the other thread Greenwood as dropped from 34 a few hours ago to below freezing..

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You guys actually want that big band to lighten up some. If those current rates come over as freezing rain it will quickly rise the temp to 32 or higher. Best freezing rain is lighter banded type precip; like what the Triad is currently getting.

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Well it looks like the heavy rain is moving in to the upstate. I think we all will be watching how long the wedge holds once the precip gets heavy. Still holding at 27 degrees here.

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John C just said at 8 pm cut in update, major ice storm incoming!

Until GSP issues an ice storm warning I just don't see it. I trust them wayyyy more than the local tv mets.

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The latest HRRR run came in a tick colder than the last.  Not much of a difference, but considering we're talking about 5-6 hours out, it might make a bit of a difference if it trends like that again.  Looks like it has a couple tenths as ZR in the GSP area before the changeover to rain around 12-1 AM (about the same time GSO goes over to RN).  The HRRR blew this current band here pretty bad, though, as we are way above the QPF it had for this are (0.4"+ compared to 0.2").

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John C just said at 8 pm cut in update, major ice storm incoming!

I just don't see it. Droplets will be too warm and the rates too heavy. I'd expect modest accrual at most. TW

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the precip has finally made it to ne ga - took long enough lol.  its 29 with freezing rain - and surprisingly fairly gusty ne winds still. 

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