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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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Latest RAP warms us (Upstate SC) exponentially over the next several hours...and NWS GSP keeps backing down on icing totals by a lot.  Next...

And that's a wrap

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Yep , heavy stuff still 5-6 hours away! Wedge can't hold on forever! What might have been! :(

It keeps acting to me like the stiff NE winds are acting as Downsloping does and is just drying up the moisture. The wedge was no problem it was there and still is, hell may even hang on until early morning! But anyway this has been one strange event especially for CAD areas.

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I think temps are going to skyrocket in a few hours for almost everyone. Meso high in VA is gone and the warm boundary is on the move through NW through coastal NC/SC.

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Temp waffling and actually just dropped .2 degrees. Sitting at 30.4, rain on the way, it's a race, heavy precip vs wedge! Even latent heat and all that jazz, if it's 30 degrees at onset, some will accrue on the already thin glaze! And we are losing the radiation from the strong Feb sun angle and winds are still gusty out of NE

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

443 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND

SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE A MOIST COLD FRONT

CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM

WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE DRY AND MILDER HIGH

PRESSURE RETURNS AND REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 430 PM...GROWING CONCERN ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA THAT

WE MIGHT END UP WITH DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE TEMPS MAKE IT

ABOVE 32F. A LOOK AT AREA RADARS REVEALS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERY

PRECIP TRAINING NWD FROM ROUGHLY THE WEST SIDE OF THE COLUMBIA METRO

AREA NWD ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. WET BULB TEMPS BELOW 32F

EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRFIELD AND KERSHAW COUNTIES. PRECIP IN

LAST TWO HOURS HAS BEEN ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH. IF MORE

TRAINING OCCURS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PLACES AROUND

CHARLOTTE WILL GET BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID. THIS WILL

NOT ALL FREEZE ON CONTACT. SOME WILL RUN OFF...BUT THE LONGER IT

CONTINUES THE MORE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PROBLEM. THIS IS A

DYNAMIC SITUATION. THE REST OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY WEST OF I-77 AND

EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...SHOULD HAVE ONLY FREEZING DRIZZLE

FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST

LATER IN THE EVENING.

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18z NAM did it again. Initialized my backyard at 34 degrees when I'm really at 29.1 right now. Where is this model pulling it's observations from???

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Johnny C still looking concerned, Chris J then saying it's going to change over to rain in one breath, then saying it may never change over in places like TR! Contradict much !? I'm more confused than ever! It's almost like they are wish casting the wedge to break down, but they know it probably won't ! Temps 30 degrees down to Gainsville, I'm down a 1/2 degree in last 30 min!?

About to get real!

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Johnny C still looking concerned, Chris J then saying it's going to change over to rain in one breath, then saying it may never change over in places like TR! Contradict much !? I'm more confused than ever! It's almost like they are wish casting the wedge to break down, but they know it probably won't ! Temps 30 degrees down to Gainsville, I'm down a 1/2 degree in last 30 min!?

About to get real!

 

Hanging on to 28 here... drove to South Gastonia, was 31

 

Wind coming from the North... how bout that?

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Hanging on to 28 here... drove to South Gastonia, was 31

Wind coming from the North... how bout that?

But wait, someone said there was no such thing as an in-situ wedge!?? :(

I can't see us jumping 2 or 3 degrees in the next 3 or 4 hours and that could be scary, and as I said and someone else just mentioned, short range models are initializing at 3-5 degrees too warm

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Hi-res models have shown strengthening Northeasterly winds in the upstate just ahead of the front. That's why we are holding on to the wedge longer than anyone. Here's winds at 10pm tonight, 10 to 12 knots.

post-309-0-51326000-1455576507_thumb.gif

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now that's a wedge....

The wedge is weakening at 925mb, but is hanging on pretty strong at the sfc (image below).  As of now, there's no southerly component to the wind in E SC/NC.  Hard to tell how this plays out.  The air at the sfc is cold and dense, but the increased southerly flow into the wedge should takes its toll as the sfc low approaches.  Figure it hangs on a little longer than any model is showing.

post-2064-0-49724500-1455576670_thumb.gi

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Boy the Euro really did awesome with this one, sending the low up the Apps and scouring out the wedge this morning. All hail the king!

Yep. Can't hug any of these models in my opinion.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

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Boy the Euro really did awesome with this one, sending the low up the Apps and scouring out the wedge this morning. All hail the king!

    Those of us that have lived here all our lives (51 years for me) know that the wedge is tough to erode. It has happened so much that forecasters in this area have learned to delay its' breakdown, despite what some model might be showing. This is nothing new. What makes me upset is when we say "models are underestimating the wedge" we are accused of wish-casting. Go figure...

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Those of us that have lived here all our lives (51 years for me) know that the wedge is tough to erode. It has happened so much that forecasters in this area have learned to delay its' breakdown, despite what some model might be showing. This is nothing new. What makes me upset is when we say "models are underestimating the wedge" we are accused of wish-casting. Go figure...

When you have this kind of bone dry arctic air in place, the models ALWAYS miss it, by a lot. It just got above 32 all the way over here in SE Wake Co. And much of the area really never achieved maximum wetbulbing. If we would have had area-wide steady moderate to heavy precip, we'd probably be even colder now.

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