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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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12z Euro follows the Nam and now tracks the low through the Piedmont of NC. That will possibly allow WNC to get in on some backside snow.

Still watching for flooding rains across the western Carolinas. 850mb wind speeds exceed 50 knots tonight on the NAM and Euro. Increasing chance for moderate upslope-induced showers ahead of the main line of storms and ground is frozen solid. Something to watch tonight. Could be a lot of run off.

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Better hope the prime CAD areas get above freezing.. there are still some mid 20 readings along the escarpment and moisture is increasing 

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lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

Is this a duel low kind of transfer or is there a more southern solution in play?  Last Hi res NAM had the low in south central VA and it did look like there was some potential for a good changeover in the mountains.  Sweating the heavy rains into the wedge tonight...

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Huey Lewis wrote a song about it. It's the power of wedge!!! Amazing what a wedge can do...... I'm glad I live in the wedge area, being I can't move to the mountains for NWFS.

I would rather have flow snow.

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So when is the temp supposed to get above freezing here? Precip coming in heavy now and still 29 here. I thought it was supposed to warm up by now.

 

Few more hours....I see above freezing temps from Warsaw, NC to south of Fayetteville headed your way. 

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I would rather have flow snow.

No way, flow snow is lame, heavy snow one minute then bright sun to melt it all away the next and high winds. But if i lived where you did i would like flow snow more too ;)

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No way, flow snow is lame, heavy snow one minute then bright sun to melt it all away the next and high winds. But if i lived where you did i would like flow snow more too ;)

honestly, I would rather have lake effect snow.

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honestly, I would rather have lake effect snow.

I would like to experience lake effect for sure. What a dynamic storm though, lots of tornado warnings

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Is this a duel low kind of transfer or is there a more southern solution in play?  Last Hi res NAM had the low in south central VA and it did look like there was some potential for a good changeover in the mountains.  Sweating the heavy rains into the wedge tonight...

 

I think more southern solution than transfer...I'm leaning heavy on a CMC/GFS track no problem tracking through the Asheville mountain areas but then they seem to show having a problem crossing the northern CAD in north-west NC and take it east out to Greensboro NC instead. 

 

This supports icy conditions through 6z Tuesday at least in the northern CAD zone...I don't see much change over to snow in the mountains to amount to much...far better flooding concern than additional snow IMO.

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All of the models, (including short range), have busted badly here with the wedge. We had a high of 29.7 and are currently at 28.7 and dropping.

 

The coldest models had my location at 32 right now. Those same models actually drop the temperature a couple degree's after dark when the heavy precip arrives so it will be interesting to see where we wind up.

 

My gut tells me heavy freezing rain accumulations will be limited by the heavy nature of the precip, and the rapidly warming mid-levels which the heavy rain will begin to carry down towards the surface eroding the CAD. I still wouldn't be surprised if we got a decent amount of ice-glaze before that happens. We will find out soon enough.

 

I believe the foothills in NC will get absolutely hammered tonight with the freezing rain. A small band through that area will get 1/4 to 1/2 inch glazing, IMO.

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Hmmm,

 

just looked at the 4km NAM at 3pm it has my temperature at 34 degree's??? How can it be 5 degree's off with a 3 hour lead time; talk about poor initialization.

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Unfortunately, heavy convective type precip like we have on the way tonight really puts the squeeze on CAD. I rarely see heavy ice accrual in such situations. Warmer droplets, heavy rates, and marginal temps will result in modest accrual at most. Hope I'm wrong as I love a good ice storm. 28.2 in Colfax.

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Unfortunately, heavy convective type precip like we have on the way tonight really puts the squeeze on CAD. I rarely see heavy ice accrual in such situations. Warmer droplets, heavy rates, and marginal temps will result in modest accrual at most. Hope I'm wrong as I love a good ice storm. 28.2 in Colfax.

Agree heavy rain most just runs off. Sure some will freeze for a while but you need steady lgt/mod rain for a good Ice storm!

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EDIT:  Pivotal Weather graphics are much tamer than Stormvista's. So if those are correct, a much more benign situation than I was alluding to below.

 

"IF" if we were still watching global models for this little event, the 18z NAM would scare me to death for the upstate.  Both the NAM and Hires NAM initial temperatures are too high by 4 degrees.  If one were to compensate for this by just looking at the precip that falls while the temp is 33 F and below......well.....Not Good. 

 

Disclaimer.....this is based solely on the Stormvista graphics, they were somewhat more omnibus than the actual data for the 12z.  Hopefully that is the case this run as well.

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EDIT:  Pivotal Weather graphics are much tamer than Stormvista's. So if those are correct, a much more benign situation than I was alluding to below.

 

"IF" if we were still watching global models for this little event, the 18z NAM would scare me to death for the upstate.  Both the NAM and Hires NAM initial temperatures are too high by 4 degrees.  If one were to compensate for this by just looking at the precip that falls while the temp is 33 F and below......well.....Not Good. 

 

Disclaimer.....this is based solely on the Stormvista graphics, they were somewhat more omnibus than the actual data for the 12z.  Hopefully that is the case this run as well.

 

It is interesting that the 18z NAM actually builds the 32F line a bit further south over the late afternoon and early evening timeframe.

 

Looks to show around two-tenths of ZR here before we warm up into the 40s and get rain (10 degree increase in 3 hours, which I think is probably overdone, but maybe not).

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I rarely see heavy ice accrual in such situations.

 

Agreed this is NOT a really heavy ice event for WNC....in order for that to have occurred we would have wanted ice to start immediately after our snow accumulations yesterday evening without stopping through now...that didn't happen far from it.

 

Don't get me wrong...some may still see a quarter inch of ice which is considered a heavy ice event even Ice Storm Warning criteria. The best chance of this is north or west of Winston-Salem, NC.

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