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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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LOL -- 18z RGEM had low in Jackson KY at 6z Tuesday. 0z RGEM has it in Gatlinburg on TN/NC line. This is at hour 30! What's a couple hundred miles among friends in the super-short range?

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There is some back-building southward from the stronger cells in the works if you watch an animation loop north-east of Knoxville, TN. This will increase our coverage again in the blue area in a few hours to Moderate/Heavy Snow.

 

12745773_964474186978909_707881441731632

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This just now from wyff Chris justus

REALITY VERSUS THE MODELS: Pictured first is the current radar followed by the Canadian, GFS, hi res and NAM models. Comparing the models to reality the evening run of the NAM and hi res are performing the best. The activity over Alabama did not show up on earlier model runs and is helping to moisten up the very dry air mass over Georgia. This trend could mean more moisture and therefore more sleet/ice overnight and tomorrow morning. Also, an earlier batch of heavy moisture will further entrench and help lock in the cold air against the mountains longer tomorrow...meaning more ice potential as the heavier precip moves into our area. I'll watch these trends over the next few hours and keep you posted. This unfortunately isn't the kind of storm like last time when we can tell you precisely how much your area is going to see hours and days away. This storm will be an hour by hour event that can go from good to bad quickly. Right now I still think our forecast is on track but these trends have me a little concerned.

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Well there are other factors to consider:

1. The parent high moves offshore tomorrow and we lose our cold air source.

2. It's mid-february so solar-insolation will have an effect on surface temps even with clouds.

3. It will be really warm in the mid-levels by the time the heavier precip gets here. That means the rain droplets will be warmer and emit that much more latent heat as the cool off and potentially freeze.

4. We will never wetbulb down to 20 because we aren't getting any signficant precip in the upstate until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. (unless the short-range models bust really badly). That means the 3 factors above will take there toll and leave us right in that 31/32/33 degree range where it's too close to call.

Will not wetbulb to 20 really? My actual temps are still dropping, I'm sitting at 26. I could easily be at 22 or 23 before anything starts falling which would wetbulb me actually under 20! Also don't agree with #1 cause it wouldn't take much precip to lock in an in-situ CAD. This is not a classic CAD.

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This setup is such a tease! 26/5 in Easley at 11:00pm. I think that would wetbulb to about 19 or 20. If the track had been closer to what was shown a few days back (South GA to Chas) this could have been Jan 88 part deux. I'm not impressed with the radar so far. The flare up in N AL right now will have a tough time tracking through the N GA mtns (as always) and is a very thin and broken line anyway. The other developing precip trailing behind is also very broken and thin. All the models are showing very patchy and broken precip through the upstate tomorrow with the "big" line coming through late and quick. If there is not a ton of infill overnight the rain totals will even be spotty and generally unimpressive. We'll see if the low can tap enough gulf moisture to bring more in or not. As Burrell and Upstate Bud have said though, if the wedge is more stout than anticipated, one would think the SLP would have a harder time and could thus be pushed a bit more south still. In reality, I don't think anyone really has a good grasp on it. Congrats to the NC guys who got some snow today - I'm quite envious!

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afd update

 

...however concern is that strong warm air
advection up through the Tennessee Valley may begin to change this
renewed activity over to mixed precipitation. Temperatures west of
Crossville Tennessee have warmed into the middle 40s and there is a
distinct warm nose aloft with models bringing the 0 degree c line at
850 mb to Boone and Bluefield by 12z/daybreak in the morning. 

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afd update

...however concern is that strong warm air

advection up through the Tennessee Valley may begin to change this

renewed activity over to mixed precipitation. Temperatures west of

Crossville Tennessee have warmed into the middle 40s and there is a

distinct warm nose aloft with models bringing the 0 degree c line at

850 mb to Boone and Bluefield by 12z/daybreak in the morning.

Amazing really, at 12 currently and haven't gotten out of the teens today so it's crazy to think 850s will hit 0 by daybreak. Depressing really given the circumstances.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Amazing really, at 12 currently and haven't gotten out of the teens today so it's crazy to think 850s will hit 0 by daybreak. Depressing really given the circumstances.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Brad's future-cast is in agreement maybe an hour later...Boone will be 6 degrees warmer than Greensboro...the above freezing temps stay in Boone and can't progress eastward with the CAD banked up against the mountains tomorrow afternoon.

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Brad's future-cast is in agreement maybe an hour later...Boone will be 6 degrees warmer than Greensboro...the above freezing temps stay in Boone and can't progress eastward with the CAD banked up against the mountains tomorrow afternoon.

I'm probably wrong but i don't buy boone going above freezing at daybreak

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I'm probably wrong but i don't buy boone going above freezing at daybreak

 

If that low goes to your south then maybe not, but the GFS set-up would do it.

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afd update

 

...however concern is that strong warm air

advection up through the Tennessee Valley may begin to change this

renewed activity over to mixed precipitation. Temperatures west of

Crossville Tennessee have warmed into the middle 40s and there is a

distinct warm nose aloft with models bringing the 0 degree c line at

850 mb to Boone and Bluefield by 12z/daybreak in the morning. 

 

We actually observed a slight warm nose at 800 mb level from our 3z and 6z balloons. 

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Anyone care to make a small generic forecast for the next 5-10 hours or so for the Greenville-Spartanburg area??

 

First 5 hours are pretty straight forward. Subfreezing surface temps with precip chances increasing. the 5 hours after that is a little murky. Keep an eye on the short-range models and the radar trends.

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I am in "NOWCAST" mode and studying the radar extensively. It appears that the lower Piedmont of North Carolina and potentially the Upstate of SC (areas closer to the NC/SC state line) will be fighting a tough battle to gain any appreciable precipitation during the optimum times of having the cold in place. It seems there are issues with dry air, convection back towards the gulf states and overall track. I hope I am wrong and we can get some lifting going soon. Right now, the Apps seem to be splitting the precip as well, like I have seen a million times before for my area and respective areas close by. Hopefully, things can pick up in the next 3 hours. I am glad to see some areas pick up 1-3" (depending on your location)! 

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hdIUWkY.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0402 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / WRN AND CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 151002Z - 151600Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND LATER TOWARDS AND

AFTER DAYBREAK FROM THE CHARLOTTE VICINITY TO THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE.

FREEZING-RAIN RATES AT OR ABOVE 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WSW-ENE

ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SRN MIDDLE TN MOVING

ENEWD TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A STRONG WAA

REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD/STRENGTHEN E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING

ATOP A COLD DOME IN PLACE E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 00Z GSO RAOB

SHOWED A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. GRADUAL MOISTENING

FROM THE W AND S HAS LIKELY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUAL COLUMNAR

SATURATION/WET BULB COOLING IS EXPECTED. THERMAL STRATIFICATION OF

FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER ABOVE 0 DEG

C BETWEEN H9-H85 AND ADDITIONAL WARMING AROUND THIS LAYER WILL FAVOR

A TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER OVER

THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO SLEET AND

LATER FREEZING RAIN OCCURS OVER NWRN NC. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL

PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SWATH

OF HIGHER RATES OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

..SMITH.. 02/15/2016

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36357826 36228307 35488395 35318292 35717803 36357826

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