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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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Should we really be looking at models? looking at actural temps/winds trends? Seems like what will affect most of us in the upstate sc area is coming into auburn AL I think we should wait till that batch moves into Atlanta and take a hard look at temps and dew points. Really don't see this a a major event south of the state line.

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Having said the above, looks like the 4K 12Z NAM is warmer a little earlier than the 6Z - it takes GSP to 33 by 1am, where the 6Z had GSP at 32 at that time. 

 

Interestingly, it has CLT go from 34 at 1am, to 52 at 4am, then back down to 39 at 7am. Pretty wild. 

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Temps rising , DP's rising, precip hours and hours away, Feb sun angle doing work through the clouds , we are safe, especially down my way! If it hits 32/33 and dp's 30/31, = cold rain!

That's what will happen.

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Temps rising , DP's rising, precip hours and hours away, Feb sun angle doing work through the clouds , we are safe, especially down my way! If it hits 32/33 and dp's 30/31, = cold rain!

You'll live.

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Two things from the radar.

 

1) You can clearly see the precip starting to band off the Atlantic feed, as the NAM has shown for several runs. This should keep Raleigh in the ZR for quite some time. Charlotte looks to see some ZR/drizzle in the next couple hours.

 

2) The main batch of precip appears to nearly all be heading west of the Appalachians. I guess the LP is not scared of the wedge after all.

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Temps rising , DP's rising, precip hours and hours away, Feb sun angle doing work through the clouds , we are safe, especially down my way! If it hits 32/33 and dp's 30/31, = cold rain!

Not sure where you get temps are rising. I dropped from 27 to 26 around 2am this morning and been at 26 ever since then. Only thing rising here is my DP went from 7 to 21 but that the atmosphere moisting up

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Not sure where you get temps are rising. I dropped from 27 to 26 around 2am this morning and been at 26 ever since then. Only thing rising here is my DP went from 7 to 21 but that the atmosphere moisting up

That's strange.

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Yep --- that's a road block.

 

TRAFFIC ALERT: All lanes of I-95 North are closed near Fayetteville due to a crash. The road is expected to reopen by 9 a.m. (Photo: NCDOT)

12715267_10154081842484750_2812768338920

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Two things from the radar.

 

1) You can clearly see the precip starting to band off the Atlantic feed, as the NAM has shown for several runs. This should keep Raleigh in the ZR for quite some time. Charlotte looks to see some ZR/drizzle in the next couple hours.

 

2) The main batch of precip appears to nearly all be heading west of the Appalachians. I guess the LP is not scared of the wedge after all.

 

On the point 2) - Apps runner west of the eastern continental divide is a typical path. and not into the CAD wedge, which is east of the divide. The point was that if the slp made it south of the Apps and east that it would not run up the piedmont (which is where the wedge is) but tend to stay south and head toward the coast before turning northeast and running up the coast.

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For those in Wake County this isnt going away for a while....the radar returns keeps redeveloping along and west of the US1 corridor southwest of Raleigh and its moving northeast right over Wake. They were just discussing on the news.

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For those in Wake County this isnt going away for a while....the radar returns keeps redeveloping along and west of the US1 corridor southwest of Raleigh and its moving northeast right over Wake. They were just discussing on the news.

And apparently to our south in Harnett County it's changing back over to snow?

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And apparently to our south in Harnett County it's changing back over to snow?

Where did you see this report? shouldn't be cold enough, maybe IP...should change to ZR relatively soon as cold layer/CAD erodes and warm nose gets stronger, whichever one prefers. Most are reporting IP in and around Wake at the moment...I'm in a precip hole so I have nothing atm

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Not sure where you get temps are rising. I dropped from 27 to 26 around 2am this morning and been at 26 ever since then. Only thing rising here is my DP went from 7 to 21 but that the atmosphere moisting up

At my house, it was 27.9 at coldest point, about 9 AM, it's 28.4! A half degree warming for the next 6 hours , gets me to 31.4 and no room to WB, heavy band hits, latent heat release , boom 33-34 cold rain

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Yes, worried about this feature. Fairly limited in scope, but could mean heavy zr for some folks,

especially since those in IP currently are due to change to ZR within the hour or two. Thankfully ZR is self limiting. lol

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Been a mixed bag here this morning. Several rounds of light zr, occasionally mixed with some ip. Right now, the tiniest snowflakes I think I've ever seen are falling. Very light - you need a dark background to see them, but they're there. Ended up cancelling my wife's 11:00 Dr. appointment. Not worth the risk.

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At my house, it was 27.9 at coldest point, about 9 AM, it's 28.4! A half degree warming for the next 6 hours , gets me to 31.4 and no room to WB, heavy band hits, latent heat release , boom 33-34 cold rain

your profile says your temp is currently 26 and winds still coming from the NE. I'm like an earlier poster....it's a waiting game now.

The precip is starting to get it's act together over the lower Miss. Let's see how Atl holds up to temp change as that moisture moves in.

One thing for sure, it's going to be a stormy night!

 

Let me add, enjoy seeing all the folks from the upstate area chimming in!!  This has been one of the more enjoyable systems to observe and discuss!!!

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