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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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So I'm not sure if anyone's noticed or not, but the NAM is definitely a bit colder IMBY/the CAD areas through 24.

18Z:

sfctrv.png

0Z:

sfctrv.png

Very interesting! JB is hugging the NAM! I can't recall the last time I was this cold, waiting on moisture! Wind is still gusty from the ENE, I'm at 29.8, could wetbulb to about 23/24 if mod precip got here in the morning, and doubt if that happened, we would ever reach 32 tomorrow evening! That NAM run was concerning, to say the least! Paging Lookout

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I'll say this. I think think there is a small chance that we could be looking at similar ice totals as the December 2005 storm for Georgia and SC. One potential saving grace is it seems like this storm won't have that much qpf, and what does come through will be moving quick. So maybe not too much ice would accrete even if temps bust on the low side, (say 30 or 31 tomorrow night).

 

For this to turn into a big event in the upstate, we would need to see more precip streaming out ahead of the main front tomorrow afternoon from the gulf. The Hrrr seems to be hinting at this a little bit. It will come down to how the radar looks when we wake up in the morning and where we stand on our temps/dewpoints. I'm sitting at 29/7 currently. 

 

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but possible.

post-309-0-87081500-1455504015_thumb.gif

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quick thump and it's over, radar looks horrible!!! got a quick 1 1/2 inches.... the lull tomorrow should allow for enough warming for a cold rain tomorrow night! If we could get the moisture tomorrow to hold temps down would have been a nice Ice storm...

Your at 19 degrees, c'mon Brick

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at this point i dont know what to believe anymore lol - the models may be showing this or that, but they are all close...thinking that for mby, at least, its just going to be a matter of complete now-cast.  what is the temp/dewpoint when the precip starts - just a few degrees will make all the difference and right now just appears too close to call for the lower parts of the CAD ares

I'm not sure we are in model watching mode anymore. Just check out the satellite, very impressive in motion. The low is over TX, but the precip is filling in quickly ahead of it. El Niño is once again living up to his habits this winter. An abundance of moisture.

http://www.weather.gov/satellite

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NAM is close to being really nasty at RDU. The difference b/n sfc and 900mb is unreal on some of the skew-t plots. When the wedge breaks, the temp will skyrocket. That said, there's quite a bit of precip before we go above freezing.

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NAM is close to being really nasty at RDU. The difference b/n sfc and 900mb is unreal on some of the skew-t plots. When the wedge breaks, the temp will skyrocket. That said, there's quite a bit of precip before we go above freezing.

Not sure why so many are either saying we won't get the precip or it will be all rain. Even just a little snow and ice would cause a lot of problems on the roadsame here tomorrow.

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Totally agree, but soundings in Shelby (EHO) really didn't reflect the better looking maps. 2ms still at .6C -- about 33.1 F, which is what the NAM has been advertising during peak precip for the last couple days.

Latest NAM is faster with the precip band tomorrow evening for the upstate and a couple degree's colder at the surface. This is getting really close. Also, it made a huge shift south with the surface low and now tracks it from just north of Macon, GA to Charlotte, NC.

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NWS Raleigh is playing catch up...they will issue Winter Storm Warnings tonight for the Piedmont Triad.

 

Yeah they raised us to 3-5 storm total which I think is hogwash.  I think next round is sleet.  Even though we already had 2 inches, I cannot see 5 any way you slice it.  Hope I'm wrong.

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Yeah they raised us to 3-5 storm total which I think is hogwash.  I think next round is sleet.  Even though we already had 2 inches, I cannot see 5 any way you slice it.  Hope I'm wrong.

 

The HRRR says we start going again around 2-3 AM as a band forms over us.  Probably less out your way further west, though (verbatim, but it will change, so meh).  We'll see what happens with that, but it's been insistent on it.  That band looks to start out as snow and go over to IP towards morning, it would appear.

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RGEM, isn't quite as cold as the hi-res NAM at the surface and is a touch slower. It would imply mostly rain for the upstate; however, I do believe there will be areas along the eastern escarpment in NC that gets crushed with freezing rain, even if precip is slow to arrive.

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I'm not sure we are in model watching mode anymore. Just check out the satellite, very impressive in motion. The low is over TX, but the precip is filling in quickly ahead of it. El Niño is once again living up to his habits this winter. An abundance of moisture.

http://www.weather.gov/satellite

i agree - whatever my temp and dewpoints are tomorrow as the precip is knocking on mby is probably when i will know lol (unless the temp jumps too much above freezing to matter).  i am just not that confident in enough longer lasting precip around here.  even if its a little below freezing, heavy rain will cause the latent heat to self-limit the ice accumulation. 

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RAH just uncorked Winter Storm Warnings for Guilford and Forsyth Counties.  Woo.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
959 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
 
...WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
 
.A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
 
NCZ007-021>023-151100-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-160216T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0002.160215T0400Z-160216T0200Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM
959 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016
 
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY...
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
 
* LOCATIONS...ALL OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD
  REGION... BURLINGTON AND AND ROXBORO.
 
* HAZARD TYPES...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
  TONIGHT...TRENDING TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
  MORNING... AND TO JUST RAIN MONDAY EVENING.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH
  A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.
 
* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
  TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN
  MONDAY EVENING.
 
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY EVENING.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
 
&&
 
$$

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NAM is close to being really nasty at RDU. The difference b/n sfc and 900mb is unreal on some of the skew-t plots. When the wedge breaks, the temp will skyrocket. That said, there's quite a bit of precip before we go above freezing.

 

 

Based on the latest NAM thermals with it's known bias to under-shoot CAD.....the Triad looks like it could get thumped tomorrow pretty well from an ice perspective

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RGEM, isn't quite as cold as the hi-res NAM at the surface and is a touch slower. It would imply mostly rain for the upstate; however, I do believe there will be areas along the eastern escarpment in NC that gets crushed with freezing rain, even if precip is slow to arrive.

Well you tell me this with 2m in the mid 20s in upstate or here anyway I'm already 27. We wetbulb down to around 20. I'm would be looking at a heck of an Ice storm probably not warming over 32 until sometime Tues morn. That includes you as well. Gonna be hard to go from 20° to 32 with ZR falling. We should be concerned.

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From Chris Justus:

Latest 0Z (evening) NAM tracks low 30-50 miles further south compared to 12Z (this (morning) NAM. Also the models didn't show as much activity in northern Alabama that's moving through now. It could arrive after midnight. Likely won't amount to much since we are so dry but it will help moisten up our dew points which are around 2 degrees right now! These are things I'm watching as we "nowcast" this storm. If this trend continues we could be looking at an earlier start and therefore more moisture at the beginning while temps are cold. I'll keep you posted.

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Amazing how much colder 0z RGEM is vs. 0z NAM at just 6 hours -- as much as 5 degrees in central/western NC with widespread areas 1-3 degrees colder. FYI, 0z RGEM at 6 hours coming in colder than 18z run at 12, esp in Upstate of SC. Only takes 1 degree in a lot of places ....

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Totally agree, but soundings in Shelby (EHO) really didn't reflect the better looking maps. 2ms still at .6C -- about 33.1 F, which is what the NAM has been advertising during peak precip for the last couple days.

 

I haven't checked soundings, but I'd guess Shelby is a little bit east of the best surface temps. It looks like the coldest air will hold a little closer to the escarpment. Maybe somewhere like from Travelers Rest up to Chesnee up to rutherfordton would be the coldest spots.  

 

But, who knows, everybody may wind up with 99% 33 degree rain in the end. We'll see.

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Based on the latest NAM thermals with it's known bias to under-shoot CAD.....the Triad looks like it could get thumped tomorrow pretty well from an ice perspective

 

Thinking much the same thing.  ZR will be an issue in the triad tomorrow at some point.

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Amazing how much colder 0z RGEM is vs. 0z NAM at just 6 hours -- as much as 5 degrees in central/western NC with widespread areas 1-3 degrees colder. FYI, 0z RGEM at 6 hours coming in colder than 18z run at 12, esp in Upstate of SC. Only takes 1 degree in a lot of places ....

 

You see that moisture coming out of the Atlantic around hr 24 on the RGEM with temperatures still below freezing for a lot of areas?

 

Looks like it initialized a few degrees too warm, as well (24 when it's 21), though that probably doesn't matter.

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Well you tell me this with 2m in the mid 20s in upstate or here anyway I'm already 27. We wetbulb down to around 20. I'm would be looking at a heck of an Ice storm probably not warming over 32 until sometime Tues morn. That includes you as well. Gonna be hard to go from 20° to 32 with ZR falling. We should be concerned.

 

There will top down warming but still agree with what you said.  Hard to scour that much cold air out.  Timing is everything.

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Well you tell me this with 2m in the mid 20s in upstate or here anyway I'm already 27. We wetbulb down to around 20. I'm would be looking at a heck of an Ice storm probably not warming over 32 until sometime Tues morn. That includes you as well. Gonna be hard to go from 20° to 32 with ZR falling. We should be concerned.

 

Well there are other factors to consider:

1. The parent high moves offshore tomorrow and we lose our cold air source.

2. It's mid-february so solar-insolation will have an effect on surface temps even with clouds.

3. It will be really warm in the mid-levels by the time the heavier precip gets here. That means the rain droplets will be warmer and emit that much more latent heat as the cool off and potentially freeze.

4. We will never wetbulb down to 20 because we aren't getting any signficant precip in the upstate until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. (unless the short-range models bust really badly). That means the 3 factors above will take there toll and leave us right in that 31/32/33 degree range where it's too close to call. 

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Amazing how much colder 0z RGEM is vs. 0z NAM at just 6 hours -- as much as 5 degrees in central/western NC with widespread areas 1-3 degrees colder. FYI, 0z RGEM at 6 hours coming in colder than 18z run at 12, esp in Upstate of SC. Only takes 1 degree in a lot of places ....

A few posts up, Burrel said RGEM was warmer than NAM?

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Well you tell me this with 2m in the mid 20s in upstate or here anyway I'm already 27. We wetbulb down to around 20. I'm would be looking at a heck of an Ice storm probably not warming over 32 until sometime Tues morn. That includes you as well. Gonna be hard to go from 20° to 32 with ZR falling. We should be concerned.

 

my concern is we get enough WAA to start warming things up a bit above us. as the heavy rain comes it brings warmer temps, and the latent heat release of heavy rain, gives a lot of us (well ne ga at least) plaint rain

 

 

I haven't checked soundings, but I'd guess Shelby is a little bit east of the best surface temps. It looks like the coldest air will hold a little closer to the escarpment. Maybe somewhere like from Travelers Rest up to Chesnee up to rutherfordton would be the coldest spots.  

 

But, who knows, everybody may wind up with 99% 33 degree rain in the end. We'll see.

 

or worse, 32.1 cold cold rain lol

 

as others have alluded this is a nowcast of the actual temp/dewpoint as the precip moves in - since it only take one little thing to go wrong for a n ga winter wx event, and that one little thing usually does go wrong, i will be pleasantly surprised if we get some decent winter wx

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