Tacoma Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 why is all the moisture going around the central and southern mtns. and upstate, unreal, will it fill in sometime tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 HRRR is still not initializing with the current snowfall in western nc as well.. Good signs for snowlovers That looks very plausible. Those stringy banding signatures of sleet/zr over southern NC are pretty classic for isentropic/CAD situations. Slight forcing aloft/southerly flow will spark light snow/sleet/zr. I can see this basically being a scattered shower type event all day tomorrow with .2 to .4 totals. Just a nice icy mess. Roads will be rough early tomorrow. If the NAM/GFS are right and some locales don't go above freezing till early Tuesday morning, could be slightly more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 369 WWUS82 KGSP 142127 SPSGSP SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 427 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-150400- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE... STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON... FORK CHURCH...MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO... MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS... SALISBURY...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS... GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE... VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...MARION... NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD 427 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 ...DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... LIGHT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S AT BEST AND IN SOME CASES ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THESE AREAS. IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SNOW...OFTEN LESS THAN AN INCH...TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ON UNTREATED ROADS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT PRECIPITATION ONSET. AS SNOW FALLS ONTO ROAD SURFACES...FRICTION FROM TIRES MAY BRIEFLY MELT THE SNOW...BUT MOISTURE WOULD RAPIDLY REFREEZE RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY OFF ROADS TONIGHT AND AVOID TRAVEL IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 why is all the moisture going around the central and southern mtns. and upstate, unreal, will it fill in sometime tonight I was kind of confused with some of the call maps in the MTNS thread for this storm from some of our board members. I won't go as far and say what Raysweather just posted saying "This is not your storm" for SW NC....but I did post yesterday evening that there will be a night and day difference between the north-west Piedmont counties, northern foothills, northern mountains, vs GSP coverage area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 18Z NAM still gives KGSP .50 in of precip while temps are equal to or below 32.6. Currently only showing a trace of glaze but it sure would not take being off very much to have a much different result in the sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hrrr has snow popping around Rdu at midnight or so and looks pretty steady thru 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Tried to say this earlier in the week. West to East lows just don't perform well for the GSP area. It takes years of living here to know that. Umm if I'm not mistaken the Jan storm was moving west to east and we did pretty good, or here in my part of upstate anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 18Z NAM still gives KGSP .50 in of precip while temps are equal to or below 32.6. Currently only showing a trace of glaze but it sure would not take being off very much to have a much different result in the sensible weather. I know someone mentioned this earlier, but the 18z NAM (for example) is about 2 degrees too warm for the current temp at GSP, and about 4 degrees too warm for the current dew point. That's not really a big deal, and it may very well correct itself in the next few hours - but if it's off similarly at about this time tomorrow, we're talking about a much more significant storm than currently expected. Having said that, since most modeling has trended a tad warmer, I suspect that we'll wind up going above freezing around the currently expected time, but who knows? NWS GSP doesn't seem too concerned about it though, so I'm probably just excitable over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Spit and dribbles until the temps warm late tomorrow is how I read it. My forecast is snow likely after 10 pm until 10 am total around an inch. That is spit and dribbles on a cold ground. Heavy rain tomorrow night and early Tues. I would imagine we will end up with a flood watch before tomorrow night is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Spit and dribbles until the temps warm late tomorrow is how I read it. My forecast is snow likely after 10 pm until 10 am total around an inch. That is spit and dribbles on a cold ground. Heavy rain tomorrow night and early Tues. I would imagine we will end up with a flood watch before tomorrow night is over. Bingo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 18Z NAM still gives KGSP .50 in of precip while temps are equal to or below 32.6. Currently only showing a trace of glaze but it sure would not take being off very much to have a much different result in the sensible weather. Well I'm sitting at 30/8 at the moment. We will be in 20s here once sun goes down. Once precip starts falling we will cool even more. I can't help but think we would be looking at a Sig Ice storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 5 a.m. HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 anything from Lookout today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Flurries in Greensboro, per FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 18 z RGEM looked like junk. I don't trust the hrrr. It can't get the precip over the past few hours right. It goes poof on hour 1 every run. How can I put any faith in it 12 hours from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well I'm sitting at 30/8 at the moment. We will be in 20s here once sun goes down. Once precip starts falling we will cool even more. I can't help but think we would be looking at a Sig Ice storm here. Isn't the bulk of the moisture coming in tomorrow night still? It will be above freezing by then. Maybe some light frizzle in the morning FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Check please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So much virga tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ouch...latest NDFD (composite of NWS office forecasts) really backed off on totals. old new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ouch...latest NDFD (composite of NWS office forecasts) really backed off on totals. old new That looks about right in this area.... if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 They should have never been that high. Even with the HRRR's "surprise band", it's only, at most, an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Dry air, folks, dry air. When will folks learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 They should have never been that high. Even with the HRRR's "surprise band", it's only, at most, an inch of snow. Yeah, my forecast was <=0.5" for RDU, not sure what some were seeing with 1-2" forecasts for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 KGSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 More concerned about trajectory at the moment. Radar shows everything headed across the NC VA border. Almost ready to shut off across SW NC. Not looking good for anyone across the southern piedmont. Gonna need some pull from the atlantic later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Umm if I'm not mistaken the Jan storm was moving west to east and we did pretty good, or here in my part of upstate anyway. I wouldn't classify that as a low pressure storm...that was more like an upper level low. I could be wrong though...so forgive me if so. As far as right now, all we got to do is look at the radar and satellites...there is nothing near us. Now, the secondary low will develop and pull gobs of moisture our way...not sure we will see much before the temps change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 More concerned about trajectory at the moment. Radar shows everything headed across the NC VA border. Almost ready to shut off across SW NC. Not looking good for anyone across the southern piedmont. Gonna need some pull from the atlantic later tonight. The low we're worrying about is still down near Louisiana. The moisture will be here. The cold is the question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is there ever a time when models increase snowfall totals as we move in? That hardly ever happens, unless you live in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The low we're worrying about is still down near Louisiana. The moisture will be here. The cold is the question mark. Sorry, meant for the front end snow. The moisture from the LP tomorrow I have already written off as a little freezing rain and then quickly to rain. I just want to see 2-3" by tomorrow morning which will come from this initial wave (maybe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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