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lilj4425

Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

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Lookout the 4K nailed this on its 12z run as I posted earlier. Also at least for my area despite the heavy returns over me it's a light to moderate at best rain. It's just an average sounding shower outside. While I imagine that WAA will overcome and the rain will become harder, as of now it's a nice shower. (Zr) in dawsonville. Temp is steady at 31.

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If it stays light to moderate it might but looks like reports of heavy rain in that band. I'd be surprised if there is a lot of freezing. regardless,  yeah the 4km nam had slowly been coming around. Before it came around with actual surface temps, For the last day or so i've been following  it's dewpoint temps as a more realistic representation of where the temps were likely to be this evening and that proved to be the right way to go. '

 

 

IMO, the model that is doing the best right now when it comes to the temps is the French one. The NAM and RGEM did good too. The Euro and GFS should be thrown into the garbage can. HUGE fail with those two.

Absolutely. First image was the 06z gfs forecast for 0z tonight...ie 2 hours ago. 2nd image was the 12z.   I hope folks remember this the next time.

 

 

gfs_T2m_seus_4.png

 

gfs_T2m_seus_3.png

Did the HP build back up? Seems like the cad is building again.

Lack of solar insolation combined with an increased pressure gradient between the low center and pressures over nc are partly responsible for the expansion imo. It's decreasing now but The gradient peaked a few hours ago which is when the cad expanded down this way.

 

 

 

 

Lookout, what's your obs? Radar shows zr, down to you!

32.4 over 30 :axe: Rain just started.

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I'm still trying to figure out these boards so I don't know how to upload the text, but Robert from WXSouth just posted on FaceBook and he seems to be more on the WYFF bandwagon than not...saying the next eight hours have the potential for a damagin ice storm.

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Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models.

 

the 12z gfs..at 06z tonight. Yes..low 50s from gsp to charlotte. :lol:

 

gfs_T2m_seus_4.png

 

oh and for 03z..or right now. Think it's off much?

 

 

post-12-0-19187600-1455590913_thumb.png

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Still some pingers mixed in here.  27 so yes it is warming.  NWS forecast for tonight now just says freezing rain with rain for tomorrow.  The text of the WSW says .2 - .3 Ice and that was updated at 9 ish I believe.  Hoping pingers keep the lights on around here!!!

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Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models.

Care to give an analysis?

 

Looks like low js in N Al!?

Bingo... a mid level low.

 

Riding along the CAD boundary pumping in WAA.

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Funny how some thought this would be nothing but rain. One thing we have learned is the models really don't know how to handle CAD and the wedge, at least the long range models.

I don't know that computers will ever be able to nail down a true wedge. So many variables that enhance, expand or strengthen them. The exact position of the high and when it retreats. The rate of precip in the cad regions. Pressure gradients as Lookout just eluded to. I guess you could say it's still mother nature and not computer science. It would be a nightmare to predict these type of events. I don't know of one single forecast or computer model that got all of this right in my area. I've just come to expect when we have an actual cad happening that things are going to change and usually over perform...so many variables makes my noggin hurt!

Anyway kudos to Lookout (cad specialist) and props to burrel for never giving in!

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That's why I say from now on all I am going to take away from the models when it comes to winter weather here is there is a potential for some kind of event, but what actually happens can go either way. Just too hard for them to get it all right here.

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Wonder if GSP looking at possibly making this an ice storm warning? That qpf turning from heavy to light in NE Georgia has me getting deeply concerned.

Be careful lilj, don't want to you slip and fall............  :sled:  It worries me when you get deeply concerned!  :(

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When are all the negative nancies that wrote this storm off for the upstate gonna come eat their crow? It looks like there has been close to 200 accidents in the upstate in the last few hours!

 

i know - some kept hope alive lol.  can verify the reports from ne ga - heard thunder (dog ran and hid) its 29.5 with freezing rain, deck and trees have a good glaze going.  not sure how much longer will last, but i think moto said nam had freezing temps in the ne ga CAD areas until about 11 (if not, whatever model had that is verifying pretty darn well)

 

image what a whopper of a storm we could have had with the precip in by early afternoon, ah what could have been lol

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i know - some kept hope alive lol. can verify the reports from ne ga - heard thunder (dog ran and hid) its 29.5 with freezing rain, deck and trees have a good glaze going. not sure how much longer will last, but i think moto said nam had freezing temps in the ne ga CAD areas until about 11 (if not, whatever model had that is verifying pretty darn well)

image what a whopper of a storm we could have had with the precip in by early afternoon, ah what could have been lol

amazing how that works, it's 46 up here.

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amazing how that works, it's 46 up here.

 

yes it is - really good CADs are always amazing to watch unfold as they happen....they cause strange quirks in the micro-climates around ne ga, western nc and the upstate.  heavier returns are on the proverbial doorstep - and i am guessing 11 will be about when we go above freezing.

 

just saw on the local news site that several roads, and the bridges over the highways, have been closed due to ice.  it didnt take but a couple of hours to really ice things up.  this was a great wedge

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Heavier precip moves in here in Pickens and the latent heat kicked in. We went from 29 to now 32.8 in less than an hour. What Ice we got will probably be washed away in a few hours. But it made havoc for rds around here wrecks were everywhere!

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Justus and John C., don't expect the escarpment western foothills of NC to ever go to all rain. They expect it to be frozen through the night.

 

They were right on this.  The temperature is 31.8 F currently IMBY after very heavy rain at times overnight.  Everything is encased in a thick crust of ice.  It's actually quite beautiful.  What an amazing display of CAD!

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