Johnno Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wrong thread for it but I always thought western SNE was west of the River. Western, then central areas are like ORH/TOL to the river, and eastern New England is 395 in CT east. Atleast for wx purposes it seems to be the perfect line the last few years... Oh how I pray for those "NW of I84" storms again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 06z runs were impressive....esp the RGEM. The RGEM would be warning snow back to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 No...we want it hung up, that keeps everything west Yeah for a further west solution you definitely want the front to hang up and stall. Even in the EURO depiction, Tolland for example will be 35-40F and then cool to 31-32F after a tenth of QPF or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Becket MA down to 38, Winchester CT 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOX's disco basically said they were hesitant to go higher because of the ARW so they took the GFS as a compromise. BOX is a great office and they do a good job usually, but that's a head scratcher for sure. I'm gojng up to c-2, 2-4, 3-6 from west to east across CT but might go higher this evening. Want to see one more round of models before I go for warning level totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 What did I tell ya... your area up to BOS is going to be by far the closest to normal snowfall this season when all is said and done. Congrats. Take some pics. I don't know about that but I think it had to snow eventually this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This could end up being the biggest dump of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 AM gang. Looking real good down these parts. Nice to see models trend better as we close in on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm of the mindset that this easily 6 inches from river valley on east . Jacks get 8-12 n Ri to Canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm of the mindset that this easily 6 inches from river valley on east . Jacks get 8-12 n Ri to Canal I am coming to that camp as well. Kudos to you! (and SRAirglide) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Haha, I'm just the one that posts the most regularly. The rest of those getting missed have just dropped off the board pretty much. Its hard to type when your busy doing other things with your hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Today will torch. Colder Air not really until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Today will torch. Colder Air not really until tonight. Hanging up the front is a good thing anyway...as already mentioned by a couple folks. You want to keep this whole thing tilted as negative as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We go to bed with rain and wake up to heavy snow. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Front coming thru here now. Rain, gusty wind from NW. Temp down to 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Haha, true. That bump up from 00z to 6z on the GFS west of the River from 0.00" to 0.04" helps. LOL--I'm looking forward to my overcast to transition to a sunny afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Starting to get the ooze here on light northerlies, down from 54 to 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOX AM AFD &&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERNRHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***OVERVIEW...COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATIONTONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACHFROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THETROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THISLOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELDBACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.UNCERTAINTY...STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THEPRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RESGUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALFOF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTIONON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYFRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C ASWINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTSARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDESHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD ASWELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.QPF...THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THEUKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTOSOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THENMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THECAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTHOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THEROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ANEMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00ZGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.SNOWFALL...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THEGUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANALAS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODEISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIMORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGALIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDINGCLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALLDUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICHWILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIPSHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTERMENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BELESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOWCOULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVESHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPSAND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTEDSNOWFALL RANGES.IMPACTS...THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BEPOTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWERLINES.SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still skeptical for anything up here, I guess 12z should be telling if it still moves NW or if it holds, Then I would probably expect a late tic east like most have done this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Problem with using the GFS as the middle road is that it already caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Temp crashing thru the 40's now..Down to 46.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Problem with using the GFS as the middle road is that it already caved You have to remember that they aren't using 06z guidance when making their forecast for overnight package. So the 00z at the time looked more like a compromise. I'm sure they will expand everything this afternoon assuming the 12z guidance stays with the robust solutions. I probably would have put a little more weight on the euro than they did though and not bothered with the NMM junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Temp crashing thru the 40's now..Down to 46.6 Be careful out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You have to remember that they aren't using 06z guidance when making their forecast for overnight package. So the 00z at the time looked more like a compromise. I'm sure they will expand everything this afternoon assuming the 12z guidance stays with the robust solutions. I probably would have put a little more weight on the euro than they did though and not bothered with the NMM junk I thought it was 6am? I admit I don't know the particulars of how the afds are administered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Problem with using the GFS as the middle road is that it already caved I think it's still too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wonder if I can beat my season to date total with this would love this to trend just a little more today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Srefs running 15 to 30 minutes late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still skeptical for anything up here, I guess 12z should be telling if it still moves NW or if it holds, Then I would probably expect a late tic east like most have done this year I'm expecting zilch. SE SNE is new snow belt of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I thought it was 6am? I admit I don't know the particulars of how the afds are administered. They'll usually start putting together the discussion well before that. They could have had that portion already written by 430 or so. Who knows. Though 6am is definitely a bit later than they normally put it out. Either way I do think there were some head scratchers in there like focusing on SREF members like the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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