Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 8-12 from Ginx east and not done correcting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Fun commute for e sne tom am. Should bang big and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 8-12 from Ginx east and not done correcting west Doubt it. Nam being too ampy. Still Looks good though from hfd east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Nam 4 km is a tad east of the 12 km. .5 precip contour is east of the Valley into Tolland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 4km NAM similar to the 12km in snow distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 4km NAM similar to the 12km in snow distribution. QPF distribution is better up this way on the Hi Res Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 namconus_asnow_neus_12.png 4km by comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 QPF distribution is better up this way on the Hi Res Nam NAM-HIRES_QPFtotal_ne_f36.png Looks like 0 QPF for MPM on the hi-res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looking at the fields on the NAM verbatim, it pounds parts of CT into RI and EMA tomorrow morning into early aftn. It actually has G-waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I bust your stones when you say nutty things, so let me give credit where credit is due as well....Congratulations Kevin on holding your ground on this one! Nice Call :-). Hope I can get in on some accumulation too.?? Nice job! he has scored more than a few coups...he nailed a system that was a grazer back in dec of 12 i think and he said it would come closer and be six plus for most folks and it sure did...i agree credit has to be given where it's due..great job Kevin and Forky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Doubt it. Nam being too ampy. Still Looks good though from hfd east.Still not done playing catchup. By 18z it should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 he has scored more than a few coups...he nailed a system that was a grazer back in dec of 12 i think and he said it would come closer and be six plus for most folks and it sure did...i agree credit has to be given where it's due..great job Kevin and Forky! Kevin never saw a snow threat he didn't like....except the Blizzard of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like 0 QPF for MPM on the hi-res. Does not look good for Pete as well.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I tend to think that this has a tighter gradient than forecast. Any thoughts on p-type issues for UUU? This reads to me as one of those situations where there's an extra couple inches of snow on the north side of aquidneck island, compared to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Kevin never saw a snow threat he didn't like....except the Blizzard of 2013. lol, Many would fall in that category as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM has a few unstable layers a12z-18z on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I tend to think that this has a tighter gradient than forecast. Any thoughts on p-type issues for UUU? This reads to me as one of those situations where there's an extra couple inches of snow on the north side of aquidneck island, compared to the south. Might start as -RA or RASN down there. Even where I am, might be a mix to start. I do think any mix isn't lasting long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM has a few unstable layers a12z-18z on the soundings. Around 600mb there's a decent one if we can stay saturated that high for that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Kevin never saw a snow threat he didn't like....except the Blizzard of 2013.Not true. When I don't like looks of them I say it. This one looked very good from several days out if you looked at the Central Atlantic ridging and how the front was stalking hence keeping baroclinic zone close. I'm not overly thrilled with the look next week. Has potential, but there's ways we can get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 AM gang. Looking real good down these parts. Nice to see models trend better as we close in on this system. You think we have any precip issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 namconus_asnow_neus_12.png It is giving me the purple finger down here now too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The 12Z 4km Nam was slightly east of 6z with the .5 contour, that is enough for me to pause with a continued trend on 6 inches to the river north of HFD, however,advisory is appearing more likely. Let's see what the RGEM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think almost everyone east of ORH-TOL is probably going to start as a few drops...but it will quickly flip NW of GHG-UUU...SE of that line it could take a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think it starts wet, but good CAA just off the deck will drop many to 27-31 I think. So it will turn into a drier snow perhaps, but still sticky. But SE of GHG-TAN....this could be a real pasty snow. I mean it's marginal near the surface, but temps aloft are chilly. Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about paste around the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 You think we have any precip issues? No getting by the fact that this will start as rain. We should be able to scour out any low level warmth though as the cold is arriving as the precip moves in. I'd say a few hours of rain to start than we thump come tomorrow AM. High confidence in 6"+ for this area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I mean it's marginal near the surface, but temps aloft are chilly. Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about paste around the 95 corridor. I wonder if models are biasing 2m a little warm here...950 gets reasonably cold...so it could be more like 29-30F across a lot of the area rather than 32...though down near PYM and SE RI I think it could be glop for a while at 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan Possible caution flag for tomorrow morning's snow is a rather unimpressive look on the NCAR ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Climo dictates ... it is very hard to bring a v-max along the NAM's trajectory for this thing (looking back some 4 cycles or more...) without consequence in CT-RI-E MA and SE NH... That's the critical 1.5 deg lat/lon axis for frontogenetic banding - code for someone over-producing. The jet max riding on the NW side of the llv baroclinic axis means you're likely to generate a goodly stripe or two of -EPV...with a pretty smart vertically oriented UVM core(s). ANA phenomenon is really that playing out whether there is a closed circulation or not associated with said llv baro I also don't believe this is a pure ANA scenario, as there are clear cyclogenetic events going on with this thing. I'm also a bit leery of outright discounting the NAM along the popular vote to do so with that particular model. As I was discussing with ...someone on this board last evening, the NAM tends to do good when there is llv thickness packing/thermal gradients that are high. It may be coincidence that whatever convective parameterization the NAM uses ...happens to perform well in those scenarios, but whenever there is a strong difluence moving over top that kind of thickness gradient, the NAM's tiltng the elevated frontal slopes more vertical...maximizing lift, together with convective processes adds to elevated instability... all of which feeds back dynamically and the storm mechanically resolves NW guidance consensus. That's ...about precisely what happened in Dec 2005 ...though this is no analog per se, the baser idea of strong DPVA and difluence running up on the NW (cold side) of nascent polar frontal displacement hearkens to potential. We'll see how it plays out, but I wouldn't be shocked if warning level event stripes SE NE... IF IF IF, the NAM is correct with that vorticity max both timing and placement throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like RGEM ticked east a bit..still quite robust, but not quite as crazy as the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 looks like the west trend has ended, hopefully not many more east ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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