codfishsnowman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 You said portions of SNE faired far worse. How is 5-10" far worse then 9.5". And there were certainly areas in NYC that saw less then the park. The band you speak of was narrow and short lived. The actual meat of the storm produced only 4" in Central Park. I'm still confused. for the folks that got 3 to 5 in the far w and nw that is far worse from nearly ten inches but youre nit picking...it was an event up here that many of us would like to forget... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Some may see a warning event from wave 1 . Then you keep the baroclinic zone closer to the coast and wave 2 is the monster and the temperamental miller B wave 3 would just give us some instability LS Need DT to jump in with his graphics (arrows and squigglely lines) so it is easier to understand the interaction of the three systems. Very interesting discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z GFS has nothing more than a few snow showers. The southern stream wave is way OTS and the secondary system is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 a blizzard is on the table and so is nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 a blizzard is on the table and so is nothing lol, or a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 a blizzard is on the table and so is nothing Guess the question is which is more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Guess the question is which is more likely? Well it's a helluva lot easier to get nothing than a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Guess the question is which is more likely? From the NWS AFD, last of the series of potential coastal's: So bottom line, way too every to tell. THE NEXT COASTAL STORM IS SLATED FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IS ALSO IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF DATA AVAILABLE OVER THE PACIFIC. DECIDED IT WAS BEST TO STICK WITH CONTINUITY UNTIL THINGS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL FOR A MILLER TYPE B STORM REMAINS...BUT TIMING...STRENGTH AND P-TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 While we wait for the 0z suite to come out, any word on the 18z GFS ensembles for the second and third waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 While we wait for the 0z suite to come out, any word on the 18z GFS ensembles for the second and third waves? 18Z GEFS shows the heavy precip just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 From NEPA, Extreme NW NJ up into the HV and into most of NE majority are <10" for the year. Its pretty amazing actually. Yup, I think our house in Wayne County PA at 1600' elevation has had about 4" of snow this entire season. The average annual snowfall there is in the 70-75" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Who wrote the subtitle to this thread? "let's get one more biggie and call it a winter" Other than one storm, you cannot call what we've had so far winter, it's just been an extended fall, or an early spring. I suppose it could be called either, but certainly let's not call what's been going on since the middle of November winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I have to kind of laugh at this b/c what exactly is "all over the place?"? I can't believe how married people are to the models. How bout some good old fashioned forecasting? Right? Pattern is evolving. Why not just take a good old fashioned stab at it, sink your teeth and call for something. Weather forecasting has become so fickle. It's the fear of failure factor. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I don't work for them or speak for them but they just don't want to be seen flipping and flopping. What the NWS refers to as continuity until more model runs and ensembles come to a more confident solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Navgem blows up the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Definitely a potenial here something similar to feb 94 is on the table with back to back storms. Wait till the weekend before making calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Euro still focuses on storm 2 instead of storm 3. It shifted slightly west from the 12z run and gives LI some decent precip. Can that be the main storm? A lot of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 So much going on with the two streams...MJO...and blocking developing from California to the North Pole. Bust potential either way looks very high with different packets of energy competing with each other. This looks like one that may be another short term or nowcasters special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Navgem is still blowing up the second storm.Eps looks better for the third wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 # 2 and #3 will have to wait till #1 passes tomorrow so we get a significantly clearer idea ( likely starting 0z Sat.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 # 2 and #3 will have to wait till #1 passes tomorrow so we get a significantly clearer idea ( likely starting 0z Sat.). Whys that? Clouds get in the way of the model physics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 First storm on gfs is way ots this leaves room for the second wave to really dig in the center of the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Surface low forming off the MA coast light snow in the area monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Trough is much sharper this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hr 117 tuesday morning mod snow for the metro area very nice run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 IF THIS CAN DIG FURTHER S AN NEG TILT JUST 6 HOURS EARLIER IT WOULD BE A BEAST . THERE IS A TON ON ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE ENTIRE TROUGH . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Way better run for the whole area in regards to storm 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 the storm offshore still pulls the baroclinic zone east and messes this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Could end up a really nice storm and there's plenty of time for things to shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS would be 6+" for many interior folks that haven't seen squat, I'd take the 12z GFS and run at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 GFS would be 6+" for many interior folks that haven't seen squat, I'd take the 12z GFS and run at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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