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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

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I FAIL SO MUCH! I predict lots and lots of cold rain events for most of the people on this board. The reasoning behind this is most of us are in the Southeast and well we get cold rains most of the time. I do not trust 10 day out storms. The last storm that came through had clown maps galore and most of the people on this board ended up with a little ice and sleet. February better bring some true arctic air masses or we shall see cold rain or a little sleet.

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This month is going to have so much February in it.  I can't wait!

 

Don't believe me?  Look at your calendar.   There are 29 days!  We get extra February!! 

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Why so gloomy? Gfs is close to some big events. Feb 5,8 and 11 all have lows off the coast and show great potential on most models cmc looks getter than gfs. Can't believe you guys are cancelling winter when we are going through a minor "reset" lol. 3 storm signals in 6 days..... That's reason to believe something epic might happen. Cold is there and storms too just need some trends quicker with phasing and boom someone gets 3 big storms in 6 days

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The 00z Euro is really close with the February 5th potential system. Verbatim, it shows some snow for NE NC and SE VA.

 

That look at the end looked like something out of a 360 panel of the GFS...energy all over the east coast all about to phase. Would be another superstorm for someone. Chances of it verifying are at about 1% ...but with the last storm coming in with a vengence I think it's a solution that certainly could repeat itself. 

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That look at the end looked like something out of a 360 panel of the GFS...energy all over the east coast all about to phase. Would be another superstorm for someone. Chances of it verifying are at about 1% ...but with the last storm coming in with a vengence I think it's a solution that certainly could repeat itself.

Yeah, interesting look for sure. Lots of players on the field for some fireworks. Someone should get a good storm during the upcoming period. Hope it's us in the SE a that get in on the spoils.

Looks like the EPS control run drops 2-4" of snow (not all of it would likely stick, though, given the warm temperatures preceding it) from C NC up through RIC and into the Delmarva peninsula with the D7 system. Pretty similar to the operational run, but a bit more bullish. It's still cold chasing moisture and I think the Euro is mostly on its own with it (though I think the GGEM was close), though, but it's something to watch for now.

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Don't pay much attn to him, he was like that the last storm and most of the upstate ended up with 4+ inches.

4+ inches of snow along and north of highway 11 and the north halves of Greenville and Spartanburg counties is NOT EVEN CLOSE to most of the upstate. 75% of the upstate had 2 inches or less and much of the area not even a half inch.

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That look at the end looked like something out of a 360 panel of the GFS...energy all over the east coast all about to phase. Would be another superstorm for someone. Chances of it verifying are at about 1% ...but with the last storm coming in with a vengence I think it's a solution that certainly could repeat itself.

Next time Burger just start your post with "it has about a 1% chance of verifying but...." and I can just stop reading right there. LOL!

With 100% chance of verification, daylight savings time ends in 43 days! And another 100% chance, January is gonna go out on fiyah baby! Coppertone and cold beers for everyone this weekend! Man I wish the GFS was 100% accurate at 360!

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BINGO!

6z GFS says coldest air of the season is coming. Likely major stormy period when you get into that Spring vs Winter battle late February. I'm sticking to my guns and writing off these next two weeks...I think something wintry occurs third week of February during the rebound period. Week two storm is there near Feb9 but I have low confidence on how that one will unfold. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

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Pretty textbook cross-polar flow on the Week 2 EXCAM model (this was yesterday's run) but wow that's cold. We'll see what today's run brings. 

 

1HWM2rU.gif

 

As I mentioned the other day, 2/10 looks colder than the 2/5+ cold, although you're not seeing it on the ensembles yet. The trough should dig more and become deeper and colder, as the ridge on the east is already modeled very strong on Day10+ ensembles...so we will likely see a response east, depending of course on where the ridge sets up. The fun is past day 10 for storms, so we just have to play the waiting game for the ridge to build east on Day 10+ and split flow to get going. Enjoy the warmth, I'm not sure when the next time we'll see temps like that again.

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4+ inches of snow along and north of highway 11 and the north halves of Greenville and Spartanburg counties is NOT EVEN CLOSE to most of the upstate. 75% of the upstate had 2 inches or less and much of the area not even a half inch.

Ok if you say so LOL!

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I post very little but observe and read these posts daily.  My main concerns are the upcoming weather trends and their effect on energy prices.  On January 25, various weather models began indicating eastern US cold intrusions beginning around February 5 and continuing.  Several posters on the January thread made note as well beginning on the 25th.

The morning of January 26, the prices bid on the NYMEX natural gas futures market for cash and March 2016 delivery, as well as the stock prices for several companies producing or transporting natural gas began increasing and continued to do so into Friday night's aftermarket trading.  Investors are observing and acting with huge amounts of cash.  We in the energy markets are convinced that most of February and a good portion of March will be cold in the eastern half of the US. 

The mantra of "the trend is your friend" is not just a hope for a southeast or east coast winter storm for us.  It's a market marker or breaker.  And, the markets have been speaking loudly for a week now in response to near future weather observations and predictions of a cold weather outbreak. 

BTW....I thank the many observers on this site who help interpret weather models!  I am by no means a professional or amateur met.  Just an enthusiast and a keen observer of these discussions.

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Another strong warming over the pole forecasted,a little stronger than the previous one.1hpa is forecated to reverse and 10hpa is getting close to as well.A technical SSW then if we get reversal at 10hpa remember.

 

Whoever gets under the two splitting vortex's is going to get mighty cold I'll say that,one piece looks like its going into SE Canada.I do see a few modles wanting to take the MJO into phase 4/5 recently,if the PV sets up and is strong as advertised it might overcome the tropical forcing end though so we'll see.

 

Just my opinion.

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I post very little but observe and read these posts daily.  My main concerns are the upcoming weather trends and their effect on energy prices.  On January 25, various weather models began indicating eastern US cold intrusions beginning around February 5 and continuing.  Several posters on the January thread made note as well beginning on the 25th.

The morning of January 26, the prices bid on the NYMEX natural gas futures market for cash and March 2016 delivery, as well as the stock prices for several companies producing or transporting natural gas began increasing and continued to do so into Friday night's aftermarket trading.  Investors are observing and acting with huge amounts of cash.  We in the energy markets are convinced that most of February and a good portion of March will be cold in the eastern half of the US. 

The mantra of "the trend is your friend" is not just a hope for a southeast or east coast winter storm for us.  It's a market marker or breaker.  And, the markets have been speaking loudly for a week now in response to near future weather observations and predictions of a cold weather outbreak. 

BTW....I thank the many observers on this site who help interpret weather models!  I am by no means a professional or amateur met.  Just an enthusiast and a keen observer of these discussions.

 

 

Interesting contribution. People usually aren't parting with their money without what they feel is sound advice. 

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man, the LR GFS just dropped an iceberg on tennessee, especially BNA.

 

Chances of a big time storm in the 2/10-2/11 period are starting to ramp up.

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BINGO!

6z GFS says coldest air of the season is coming. Likely major stormy period when you get into that Spring vs Winter battle late February. I'm sticking to my guns and writing off these next two weeks...I think something wintry occurs third week of February during the rebound period. Week two storm is there near Feb9 but I have low confidence on how that one will unfold. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

would like storm to move a little west though to include Upstate SC and most of NC  :snowing:

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Chances of a big time storm in the 2/10-2/11 period are starting to ramp up.

Hope this includes most of Ga., SC, and NC.

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Kinda like 1899 with that cold coming in afterward

 

It kills the HP for some reason, but looking at the 500mb maps it's a massive outbreak.

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Chances of a big time storm in the 2/10-2/11 period are starting to ramp up.

Tons of honking, barking pick your metaphor. Think alot of folks are gonna have their belly full and satisfied by March 7th. You can't set the table up any better then what's showing up on the ensembles. Gonna be a fun 4 weeks to close out the season and with the stj still jacked up we should see atleast 2 big dogs as well as a couple novelty events unfold. Just hope your back yard is in the right spot. Lol at the 93 superstorm 12z gfs just spit out

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If we do get some kind of a superstorm 93 repeat, hopefully it'll track 50-75 miles farther south and east. That would bring the GSP and Charlotte metros and maybe the Raleigh area in on it. It would be nice to have some cold air here ahead of it too, unlike we had for the 1993 storm.

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If we do get some kind of a superstorm 93 repeat, hopefully it'll track 50-75 miles farther south and east. That would bring the GSP and Charlotte metros and maybe the Raleigh area in on it. It would be nice to have some cold air here ahead of it too, unlike we had for the 1993 storm.

Yeah, the amazing 1" of slop I got in Gastonia, was mesmerizing ! :(

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If we do get some kind of a superstorm 93 repeat, hopefully it'll track 50-75 miles farther south and east. That would bring the GSP and Charlotte metros and maybe the Raleigh area in on it. It would be nice to have some cold air here ahead of it too, unlike we had for the 1993 storm.

   A storm of that magnitude will "cut" inland at some point. As we all know, the timing of the phase makes all the difference. That simply can not be predicted at this range. Couple of things stand out..... 1) we have some very old air pushing down and 2) we have a fairly strong signal for a storm. That's about all you can hope for at this stage.

   If I was forced to make a call right now it would be for a more suppressed system. for no other reason than the surge of cold air that is modeled to come down out of Canada. Just sit back and watch the show.... This one has the capability to make all of our seasonal snowfall totals above average.

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