February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[Solak]

Robert, just now on FB.

 

 

The extended is very fuzzy and nebulous and models are having a heck of a time trying to decide where the storm tracks will be, how amplified the pattern will be and so on. It certainly looks "Active" though through Mid February. We'll try to get a grip on that as storms come, but for now, even entire longwave positions aren't known. That's pretty telling of itself, as that should be relatively easy, even at 7 to 10 days out. Nothing's a sure thing in this Nino Winter.

[Cold Rain]

From Cosgrove. Enjoy!

As alluded to at the end of the Medium Range Forecast, the threat for an immense storm affecting the southern and eastern tiers of the nation is the major factor in how the rest of the February 2016 outlook turns out. There are many features favoring a warm West vs. cold Central/East alignment. The Madden-Julian Oscillation seems to be shifting toward a Phase 6/7/8 passage with linkage to a persistent sub-Aleutian vortex (easily seen on satellite imagery of the Pacific Basin. The El Nino episode is slowly weakening with emphasis on the western and central sectors. Note that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still in a positive mode (matches up very well with classic +PDO description provided here), which would seem to indicate capacity for -EPO, +PNA and -AO ridge signatures. Snow cover is dense and abundant through North America and the Northern Hemisphere in general, which enables rapid replenishment of cold air following storms in the lower latitudes.

One important (and this season, overlooked by many) aspect to the February puzzle is how the stratosphere looks. Before mid-month, if the 10MB level is warmer than normal and the circumpolar vortex either split, or skewed toward the coastline of western and central Eurasia, then blocking ridges will form in the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA and -AO positions. This configuration has emerged at the very top of the atmosphere and looks to stay past the "Valentine's Day Benchmark", where SSW events are not a solid teleconnection to cold weather in the middle latitudes (because we enter cutoff low season, and cold pools do not get established as easily despite the tendency for ridges above 50N).

There are two more considerations to look at in judging how the longer term prediction, and the month of February in general, turns out. The analog system, which did fairly well in January (a bit too cold perhaps, but not the blowtorch predicted in some broadcast and social media sources), strongly implies a warm ridging pattern in the western U.S. as well as in northern and eastern Canada. This matches up well with many of the numerical model ensemble groups. Another concern is the intensity and track scenarios for the storm shown by the predictive equations over Texas on February 9. If, as I suspect, the disturbance is quite strong and moves very close to the shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, then a major snow and ice event will affect parts of Dixie, Appalachia, the lower Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard. Interestingly, the comparative season mean and the Canadian variant package takes the deep low inland over New England. That may afford the northern third of the fabled Interstate 95 corridor a change to rain before the cold air returns around February 13 - 14. This is a system we must keep close watch on because it has historical precedents in 1958, 1978, 1994, and 2003.

In summary, much of what I see points toward a very cold period east of the Rocky Mountains, including Texas and the Deep South, which have largely been bypassed by winter so far. For those who despise the cold and the frozen precipitation, you can take heart that these same analogs used suggest an abrupt end to winter very close to the calendar transition to Spring.

But until then....six more weeks of fun and excitement!

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on

Saturday, January 30, 2016 at 6:10 P.M. CT

[WeatherNC]

From Cosgrove. Enjoy!

 

Good ole LC, no bone in that post for the warmistas.

 

I was trying to go back for the "HM' triple phaser write up, think it had something to the affect of us being past due in the title.  It must have been over at Eastern as I am coming up dry here.  I do not see him around anymore, when HM spoke, I listened.  

[Cold Rain]

Good ole LC, no bone in that post for the warmistas.

I was trying to go back for the "HM' triple phaser write up, think it had something to the affect of us being past due in the title. It must have been over at Eastern as I am coming up dry here. I do not see him around anymore, when HM spoke, I listened.

HM speaks mostly on Twitter now, from what I can tell. There was an early fascination with these weather boards when they first came out. Mets wanted to post on here, likely because it was both new and there weren't really better places to post. But I think many have now migrated to FB and TWTR and so forth and rarely have time or the inclination for weather boards the way they once did....too many other competing social media sites, where you can be just a little more famous than you can on just a weather board. Not at all saying that's a bad thing. It's just the way it is now with social media being so ubiquitous and mainstream.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

^{Well some of the models are now showing a little snow in the south out in fantasy land. We shall see I am not convinced at all but the cold seems to be coming. I am looking for which part ruins our snow days on the board. If it is a cutter that comes through most on here will be sadly disappointed. Seen some maps that show Eastern NC some love and I am not buying that either. Hard enough to get snow in Central and Western NC let alone here at the coast (I am in the Southport, NC in the Wilmington, NC area). I grew up in Fayetteville, NC and I have seen plenty of good snows. Even had a snowstorm here a few years ago on Valentines Day while I was visiting the area I now live in. One of the most beautiful scenes I can remember seeing the Intracoastal Waterway and Canals covered in snow. Probably something I may never see again but I have pictures. I hate being a negative Nancy but it is just the truth. Good luck to those on the board though in other areas.}

[Brick Tamland]

Then why did this guy start the thread?

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Then why did this guy start the thread?

 

Because I like talking about the weather and looking at the opinions of others on the subject. This guy has been following this forum for years.

[WeatherHawk]

Being a lover 9f snow not sure what to root for. Spent today washing 3 cars and a truck. Salt= ugh. Carwash es have been lined up here for 3 or 4 straight days raking on the cash.

Same here NCSNOW....work at Bennett School and live in Graham...spent 3 hours washing cars and cleaning up yard.  More SN, IP, ZR coming...still have about 200 sq. ft. of snow on the back side of the cedars in my yard lingering around for more

[WeatherHawk]

Got this link a while back...euro model...do we see any more models showing similarities with the last blizzard?  Been offline for a while....

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/976789359034989/?type=3&theater

[CataRaider]

I'm sorry you had to live there! I was in the Cramerton area, closer to CLT, it was not memorable at all!

So the theme has turned from promising, to cutter, cool down, warm up apps runner, extreme cold and dry!? Sounds fun, and Feb will be half over!

Mack, I live in Carmerton and have my entire life. Had 4.50" in mby w/ Thundersnow! I remember this quite well because although not a blackbuster for the area, was an amazing storm that made me the weather geek I am today. No 1" slop here......

[mackerel_sky]

Mack, I live in Carmerton and have my entire life. Had 4.50" in mby w/ Thundersnow! I remember this quite well because although not a blackbuster for the area, was an amazing storm that made me the weather geek I am today. No 1" slop here......

I remember the THUNDERSNOW , but remember waiting on the turnover to snow took forever! Cramerton is the closest city to me , I think? I grew up off Lowell-Bethesda road, in Kings Grant!

Spent alot of time in Cramerton fishing on the South Fork!

The next 2 weeks or so looks interesting, but it's hard to get excited about any one threat!

[CataRaider]

I remember the THUNDERSNOW , but remember waiting on the turnover to snow took forever! Cramerton is the closest city to me , I think? I grew up off Lowell-Bethesda road, in Kings Grant!

Spent alot of time in Cramerton fishing on the South Fork!

The next 2 weeks or so looks interesting, but it's hard to get excited about any one threat!

[RubiksDestroyer]

00z GFS shows snow for NE NC at hour 132, though surface temps are in the mid-30's:

 

[dsaur]

00z GFS shows snow for NE NC at hour 132, though surface temps are in the mid-30's:

 

I think that's going to develop a weak low, and bring some moisture up into my area, and mid state late next week.  I'd love to see another bowling ball crush the northern center of Ga. from Perry up to Jonesboro   T

[superjames1992]

00z GFS shows snow for NE NC at hour 132, though surface temps are in the mid-30's:

 

This has shown up on various operational models over the last few days, albeit with weak ensemble support.  Maybe we can trend it into something.

 

Anyways, in the LR the 00z GFS is nothing like its prior runs.  Looks like a bit of snow for most of the board, including AL/GA.

[Jonesing for a chase]

00z is really cold, one reinforcing shot of cold to replace another, no cutter with that pattern

[Daniel Boone]

I think that's going to develop a weak low, and bring some moisture up into my area, and mid state late next week.  I'd love to see another bowling ball crush the northern center of Ga. from Perry up to Jonesboro   T

. DT mentioned that as a possibility awhile ago on his fb page.

[Daniel Boone]

Accidentally replied to wrong post. Meant for Rubik's .

[RubiksDestroyer]

I think that's going to develop a weak low, and bring some moisture up into my area, and mid state late next week.  I'd love to see another bowling ball crush the northern center of Ga. from Perry up to Jonesboro    T

I doubt this will develop into anything past token flakes, but I'd be fine with that.

 

This has shown up on various operational models over the last few days, albeit with weak ensemble support.  Maybe we can trend it into something.

 

Anyways, in the LR the 00z GFS is nothing like its prior runs.

No kidding! Pops a 50/50 low out of nowhere for the Feb 10-11 timeframe, and then the storm develops into a 995 mb low over central VA. Beats me.

[dsaur]

Had the same scenario recently where it stayed in the low 40's and spit some drizzle while a couple of weak impulses ran up the weakness.  Atl was in the 50's, and off and on sunny.  That was with decaying cold air.  This time the cold air is coming in.  The 0z came close with the rain and the cold meeting up over central Ga.  I've seen this happen a number of times since I've been down here.  Always a close call with split flows and weak lows, and fresh cold.  I'm not looking past the end of the week for down here.  T

[superjames1992]

The 00z GEFS mean looks a lot more excited for the Fab Feb 5thish system than prior runs of the ensembles.  Interesting.

[superjames1992]

PGV special D8 on the 00z Euro up through SNE.  Crushes SNE.

[WeatherNC]

The 0z op GFS has a 511dm H5 low (almost closed off) inverted hard right over BWI at day 11. Cold core coveyer would be from the OH Valley up into western New England. 250mb on the big 3 operationals from overnight are still supportive of a big time phase between the streams, maybe some evidence of the Euro and Canadian being a little late with the southern stream. Sub 960 ivo Quebec around day 11 is not out of the realm at this early stage. Not really what us in the SE want to hear, but a bombing low riding up the apps would present some sig issues from a sensible weather perspective, not white, unless you were left of center.

[PackGrad05]

I know some folks will roll their eyes, but we need a good 4-5 days of cold weather to cool the ground temps unless we want the first inch of accumulated to be wasted...

 

A week of above average temps does wonders for ground temps...especially considering the soil and ground has a low specific heat...doesn't take much to heat it up..  Need some cool temps ahead of any system to cool them down.

[mackerel_sky]

I know some folks will roll their eyes, but we need a good 4-5 days of cold weather to cool the ground temps unless we want the first inch of accumulated to be wasted...

A week of above average temps does wonders for ground temps...especially considering the soil and ground has a low specific heat...doesn't take much to heat it up.. Need some cool temps ahead of any system to cool them down.

Ground temps don't matter for rain!

The latest runs don't look promising for much of the SE, unless the frontal wave unicorn materializes. Which has about a 20% chance of happening, IMO

[WeatherNC]

I know some folks will roll their eyes, but we need a good 4-5 days of cold weather to cool the ground temps unless we want the first inch of accumulated to be wasted...

 

A week of above average temps does wonders for ground temps...especially considering the soil and ground has a low specific heat...doesn't take much to heat it up..  Need some cool temps ahead of any system to cool them down.

 

They are not that bad in all honesty.  Outside of the mountains and NW Piedmont, it is hard to get a frozen ground for any duration.  Looks like NCSU does not include areas outside of NC, sorry SC and GA folks, I tried.

 

 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/map/

[Cold Rain]

I know some folks will roll their eyes, but we need a good 4-5 days of cold weather to cool the ground temps unless we want the first inch of accumulated to be wasted...

A week of above average temps does wonders for ground temps...especially considering the soil and ground has a low specific heat...doesn't take much to heat it up.. Need some cool temps ahead of any system to cool them down.

Problems with snowstorms for $500.

This variable doesn't much affect snow accumulations in a legitimate snowstorm with legitimate rates.

What are ground temps, Alex?

[Jon]

I know some folks will roll their eyes, but we need a good 4-5 days of cold weather to cool the ground temps unless we want the first inch of accumulated to be wasted...

 

A week of above average temps does wonders for ground temps...especially considering the soil and ground has a low specific heat...doesn't take much to heat it up..  Need some cool temps ahead of any system to cool them down.

 

Soil temps warm up quickly but they also cool down quickly as well. Based on current forecasts I'd say before the said stormy period they should be back to the low 40's, 40-42, mid 40's through SE...that's fine. Maybe even colder if we don't get a storm until after the big cold push being advertised on the GFS on 2/10 (low 30's). Soil is not a static thing though, it changes with the highs and lows of the day as well, so as long as we stay seasonal after this warm up it's not a problem. 

[Jon]

Teleconnections look great on all models after the 9th-10th, -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO. 06z GEFS definitely more negative than previous runs, something to watch. Anyway, the big MA snowstorm #snowzilla took place mid-teleconnection change, I believe. So take that for what it is. I'm too lazy to post all the teleconnection maps. So yeah, I'm pretty optimistic for mid-feb, still thinking we're having a cold outbreak around 2/10 that's not modeled correctly currently. GFS has been hinting at it, control runs as well, Euro getting in range...we'll see. I think we'll see our coldest temps all year 2/10-2/12, with teens possible into the SE and single digits in TN/NC Mountains maybe sneaking down to the foothills. Cold still not centered perfectly for the SE, but it's still a way out, we'll see.

[WeatherNC]

The latest runs don't look promising for much of the SE, unless the frontal wave unicorn materializes. Which has about a 20% chance of happening, IMO

 

Would you care to expound upon your opinion, maybe some synoptic reasoning?  2/4, 2/7 and 2/10 all show at-least some level of potential for areas of the SE.  So lets me a realist for the moment, 2/4 - cold air chasing the precip, extreme NE NC and SE VA could flip at the tail end, but on a warm wet ground, no sig impacts would be expected.  2/7 - coastal development occurs too far north for anyone outside of the northern MA and southern NE.  2/10 - superstorm, the Southeast gets dry slotted while FL gets wrecked with severe storms and MS/AL up through western TN see a foot.  Am I missing anything?  Can we punt until the 2nd part of Feb?