Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Can you snipe hunt and unicorn hunt at the same time? Anywho, the frigid outbreak tha the GFS is showing , has about a 10% chance of happening, and should be showing up less and less intense as we get closer, IMO! When that blockbuster storm materializes on the 10th or 11th time frame, and gives TN and KY a foot of snow, and runs up the apps, I will be happy for them! I was hoping the bitter air was coming, to atleast kill the bugs, but we can't even get cold right! I'm a little skeptical on that degree of cold too. I like that all of the models are showing it, but I am not sold that it will be pipe bursting cold....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Yep! With this look and cold press, how do we get a runner? Is the trough too far west, on the west coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Not making a call here, but the one thing I would say about the MJO is that there have been several times in years past that the MJO would head into favorable territory, but a favorable pattern would not develop. Let me clarify that by a favorable patter, I do not mean a historic storm. To me, a favorable pattern means cold air present and opportunities for winter weather. With that said, I do think the MJO can be trumped by other factors. I believe that has happened to us in the past. Hopefully, that happens in Feb. to give us a good pattern despite an unfavorable MJO. It could be that we get this huge storm thru the MW and GL the next couple days and we get more clarity about weather beyond this week. Yeah, that's true. I hope it's not a major influencer this time, but I would feel much better if the remaining best part of winter saw it in a better phase. At the very least, it will be competing against more favorable variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 With this look and cold press, how do we get a runner? Is the trough too far west, on the west coast? Mack, that's a monthly average. That's like saying, "My average salary for the month is $200. I get paid a different amount every week. How could I be at $0 at any point during the month?" We could have a cold month and still have 10 cutters. Well, probably not 10, but it's still possible to be cold and have a storm or two track west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Can you snipe hunt and unicorn hunt at the same time? Anywho, the frigid outbreak tha the GFS is showing , has about a 10% chance of happening, and should be showing up less and less intense as we get closer, IMO! When that blockbuster storm materializes on the 10th or 11th time frame, and gives TN and KY a foot of snow, and runs up the apps, I will be happy for them! I was hoping the bitter air was coming, to atleast kill the bugs, but we can't even get cold right! Well if it does materialize it will probably shove every bit of precip that even has a chance of falling to Cuba so it might be a good thing if it doesn't get that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z GFS is close to showing an ice storm at hour 162. There's a decent high pressure wedged between two lows to our north. If that high was a little stronger/further south I think you'd be looking at an ice storm. There seems to be some potential here anyways. I think we need the southern piece of energy to be faster/stronger and the trailing northern energy to be weaker and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z GFS is close to showing an ice storm at hour 162. There's a decent high pressure wedged between two lows to our north. If that high was a little stronger/further south I think you'd be looking at an ice storm. There seems to be some potential here anyways. I think we need the southern piece of energy to be faster/stronger and the trailing northern energy to be weaker and slower. That's close to a nice snowstorm if you move some pieces around. Decent hit for SW VA, etc. as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12Z GFS does show rain changing to snow for the mountains of NC and SW VA.. and the storm blows up and allows the cold air to stream in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Ukmet has a cutoff 5h low over southern Georgia at 144hrs. I'm not sure how cold it is though. The fact that it's much faster than the GFS is probably a good thing in terms of cold air. Edit: Canadian has the 5h low back in central Texas at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 DGEX is on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Been awhile since I have seen a PNA spike like the GFS is showing, extremely impressive. A few days ago we were talking about the ridge axis being too far east, now it looks too far west. The one thing that is hurting with this setup is the lack of neg NAO, prevents the motherload which is north of the Hudson Bay from dropping in to the long wave, and also makes any 50/50 transient in nature. Still a lot of time, I do think we see a storm in the 2/10-2/11 period but it may get going too late for us in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 DGEX is on board! That settles it, right? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 We are not going to know anything about the 10th/11th period until we zero in on where the first wave is going on the 8th. It's going to be a long week! It will get cold next week. Other than that, it's anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Navgem just went boom. Has a nice snow storm around 138 to 144hrs for Western SC/NC. Looks like it dumps a foot or more over Hickory/Greensboro down to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Let me follow up with the wave on Friday just took a 50 mile jog to the west on the 12z GEFS. Many changes left to be seen this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Navgem just went boom. Has a nice snow storm around 138 to 144hrs for Western SC/NC. Looks like it dumps a foot or more over Hickory/Greensboro down to Charlotte. Looks like a track similar to the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z GFS looks close for something at day 7. We need to see more of a wedge to hold in the cold/dry air (..as other have stated). This is possible. We saw the CAD show up better as we got closer with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Looks like a track similar to the DGEX. Yep, The difference is the Navgem is 6 to 12 hours faster and thus colder both at the surface and at 850mb. The key is for this wave to get kicked east relatively quickly. Last nights Euro and today's Canadian lag it back in Texas for a while and by the time it comes east we have warmed too much for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That big lakes low is hurting. As Burrell said the quicker the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 12z GFS looks close for something at day 7. We need to see more of a wedge to hold in the cold/dry air (..as other have stated). This is possible. We saw the CAD show up better as we got closer with the last storm. Problem is there's a northern stream system fast on its heels kicking the high out of position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The D7 storm on the 12z GGEM ran inland, but not to be denied a lot of us score a nice hit on D9-10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The D7 storm on the 12z GGEM ran inland, but not to be denied a lot of us score a nice hit on D9-10! Set the table, appetizer, SSW, no 50/50 low, no -NAO, too cold, apps runner, supressed , pick your poison, it's all on the table, after the Superbowl ! Let's see if we can score a win, just like the Panthers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Does the EURO support the DGEX and NAV at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Someone let Phil know that the 12z GFS gave Gainesville, FLsome nice flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Well it looks like the pattern given on the models is a cutter and maybe even two cutters in my opinion. Without a change there it will be disappointment city on this board for many of us. Let us hope for snow but I do not like the trends of warmer and cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Problem is there's a northern stream system fast on its heels kicking the high out of position. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the last storm had a similar look in the early tracking days. Definitely not expecting this to occur, but I think it's in the realm of possibilities. But we would need to see this change soon; or at least a trend towards a stronger placed high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the last storm had a similar look in the early tracking days. Definitely not expecting this to occur, but I think it's in the realm of possibilities. But we would need to see this change soon; or at least a trend towards a stronger placed high. February 2014 had a HP sliding out, as did March 2014. In-situ CAD is a powerful thing (not saying that applies here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro is real slow with the late week wave, might not workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 168hr panel on the free maps of the euro look good to me. Miller B'ish with an Excellent CAD signature. 850's are hovering around freezing for most people. Not sure on precip... anybody with weatherbell care to help out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro is real slow with the late week wave, might not workout. If it's slow enough, maybe the next high pressure will have time to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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