mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Would you care to expound upon your opinion, maybe some synoptic reasoning? 2/4, 2/7 and 2/10 all show at-least some level of potential for areas of the SE. So lets me a realist for the moment, 2/4 - cold air chasing the precip, extreme NE NC and SE VA could flip at the tail end, but on a warm wet ground, no sig impacts would be expected. 2/7 - coastal development occurs too far north for anyone outside of the northern MA and southern NE. 2/10 - superstorm, the Southeast gets dry slotted while FL gets wrecked with severe storms and MS/AL up through western TN see a foot. Am I missing anything? Can we punt until the 2nd part of Feb?West TN, is basically the plains, and yes , we punt till the 2nd half of Feb, and we will be pinned back in the end zone ! I mean lows in the teens is awesome wintry weather, I've already had 3 days with lows in the teens , even way down here. I think we have one AL poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GFS says mostly dry frontal passage on 2/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 What happened to the super strong El Niño STJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 What happened to the super strong El Niño STJ?It's weakening! It's falling apart like NCSU in a basketball game! I thought if we got cold , there would be no lack of moisture and the two shall dance! Nice cold and dry look to things, but the next three weeks are going to be epic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 GFS says mostly dry frontal passage on 2/9 12z GEFS disagrees Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Models are so different from each other and from themselves run to run. Really no way of telling what will happen from next weekend onward. But the overall look does show potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Zero run to run consistency for time period after Friday. Even that "event" is still up in the air. May not be able to even pin down general pattern for several more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Would you care to expound upon your opinion, maybe some synoptic reasoning? 2/4, 2/7 and 2/10 all show at-least some level of potential for areas of the SE. So lets me a realist for the moment, 2/4 - cold air chasing the precip, extreme NE NC and SE VA could flip at the tail end, but on a warm wet ground, no sig impacts would be expected. 2/7 - coastal development occurs too far north for anyone outside of the northern MA and southern NE. 2/10 - superstorm, the Southeast gets dry slotted while FL gets wrecked with severe storms and MS/AL up through western TN see a foot. Am I missing anything? Can we punt until the 2nd part of Feb? I've already punted so much this winter my foot hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I've already punted so much this winter my foot hurts. After awhile it will stop hurting, promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Afraid I'm gonna sleet my way to climo this year. Been reading webber and he's been making all kinds of analog cases for a miller B overruning event early next week. And for anyone writing off the cold, 12z EPS is vodka cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 EXCAM for Week 2....hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 EXCAM for Week 2....hammer. Yeah that's a brutal dump no doubt . Problem is unless we catch something on the front end it's probably a dry dump Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 EXCAM for Week 2....hammer. Jon, Any way, or how, to convert those to approx. real surface temps? Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The only fly in the ointment that I've read for the cold and hold is the MJO is not favorable with the other indices? Got some a little skiddish with forecasting the hammer to drop. But some thinking other indices and SSW will overcome the MJO, but that is a big question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Every one tick in Kelvin you are changing almost 2 F, 9/5 to be exact. Take climo and then subtract, 5-10 degree departures for the week which is impressive. With the greatest H5 anoms shown over the Lakes, it is going to be hard to get a storm far enough south for us to be in game. We want to see the max negative anoms over the lower MS River Valley. Still, that output is showing the avg for a week, so there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Nice nearly boardwide overrunning event on the 12z EPS control run D13. Just entertainment, but nice to see. There are also a handful of members that try to do something D8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think a light event is much more likely vs a full blow storm given the setup . Of course being 8-10 days out all bets are off Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 too cold will probably suppress any storm to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Nice nearly boardwide overrunning event on the 12z EPS control run D13. Just entertainment, but nice to see. There are also a handful of members that try to do something D8. Could you post a fantasy map for the cliff divers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Could you post a fantasy map for the cliff divers? Negative. The WB Euro maps are not allowed to be posted here. The 18z GFS looked fairly similar, though, so there's that if you want some fantasy stuff to look over (better look now before it disappears next run, haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Jon, Any way, or how, to convert those to approx. real surface temps? Phil Exactly what WeatherNC said, and I'm going to echo him here - just take the K which you can think of as Celsius and convert. 1 K = 1 C = 9/5 F or 1.8 F. The easiest way mentally to do this is to just multiply the numbers in K charts by two. So take ATL for example: 3.5-4 K departure from normal 3.5(1.8) to 4(1.8) or 6.3 to 7.2F below normal. The EXCAM is saying for that week total is -7 below climo normal for ATL. That doesn't sound too cold right off the bat but for a weekly anomaly it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Exactly what WeatherNC said, and I'm going to echo him here - just take the K which you can think of as Celsius and convert. 1 K = 1 C = 9/5 F or 1.8 F. The easiest way mentally to do this is to just multiply the numbers in K charts by two. So take ATL for example: 3.5-4 K departure from normal 3.5(1.8) to 4(1.8) or 6.3 to 7.2F below normal. The EXCAM is saying for that week total is -7 below climo normal for ATL. That doesn't sound too cold right off the bat but for a weekly anomaly it is. How well does the EXCAM do on weekly temperatures at this range? Negative. The WB Euro maps are not allowed to be posted here. The 18z GFS looked fairly similar, though, so there's that if you want some fantasy stuff to look over (better look now before it disappears next run, haha). Looked at it, not much fantasy for ATL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 How well does the EXCAM do on weekly temperatures at this range? Looked at it, not much fantasy for ATL... Pretty good you would think, it did ok for Jan overall and that's 3 weeks worth of extrapolated analog blending whereas the week 2 forecast is just one week of extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Cansips look good for February and march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Cansips look good for February and march. Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Cansips look good for February and march. Ice, ice baby!! Hope its wrong for March. I'll deal with Fab Feb, but by March I want an early spring. Much to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Given the Euro and GFS I like the odds of something after this weekend. GFS still hints at a Miller A while the Euro takes more of an overly amped phasing solution. Either way we'll have shots of cold and moisture around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Well, nearly all of the operational models are a disaster inside of 10 days, if you want snow. Right around D9/D10 (again) there is the signal for some type of wintry event, which looks to travel over/west of us. What a shock. The Ensembles look good for a period around D10 for really cold weather. Thereafter, the pattern gets muted in the means, which probably means a lot of spread. The AO looks to head negative and so does the PNA, while the NAO remains positive. This is according to the CPC charts. The CFS is a disaster for Feb. The thing that looks like it is going to bite us is the MJO (which apparently this year is doesn't work like the real MJO for some reason *except that it does*), which looks to spend the majority of the rest of winter in the unfavorable side of the chart. But, the analogues and the atari model still look good, as well as apparently some of the other seasonals, so there's that. The snipe hunt continues..... Good morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Well, nearly all of the operational models are a disaster inside of 10 days, if you want snow. Right around D9/D10 (again) there is the signal for some type of wintry event, which looks to travel over/west of us. What a shock. The Ensembles look good for a period around D10 for really cold weather. Thereafter, the pattern gets muted in the means, which probably means a lot of spread. The AO looks to head negative and so does the PNA, while the NAO remains positive. This is according to the CPC charts. The CFS is a disaster for Feb. The thing that looks like it is going to bite us is the MJO (which apparently this year is doesn't work like the real MJO for some reason *except that it does*), which looks to spend the majority of the rest of winter in the unfavorable side of the chart. But, the analogues and the atari model still look good, as well as apparently some of the other seasonals, so there's that. The snipe hunt continues..... Good morning. Can you snipe hunt and unicorn hunt at the same time? Anywho, the frigid outbreak tha the GFS is showing , has about a 10% chance of happening, and should be showing up less and less intense as we get closer, IMO! When that blockbuster storm materializes on the 10th or 11th time frame, and gives TN and KY a foot of snow, and runs up the apps, I will be happy for them! I was hoping the bitter air was coming, to atleast kill the bugs, but we can't even get cold right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Not making a call here, but the one thing I would say about the MJO is that there have been several times in years past that the MJO would head into favorable territory, but a favorable pattern would not develop. Let me clarify that by a favorable patter, I do not mean a historic storm. To me, a favorable pattern means cold air present and opportunities for winter weather. With that said, I do think the MJO can be trumped by other factors. I believe that has happened to us in the past. Hopefully, that happens in Feb. to give us a good pattern despite an unfavorable MJO. It could be that we get this huge storm thru the MW and GL the next couple days and we get more clarity about weather beyond this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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