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About FranknRaleigh

  • Birthday 10/31/1962

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Umstead State Park

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  2. After being an observer of this board for three winter seasons, it appears to me that the sub-forums should be altered. Perhaps creating a sub-forum for NC, VA, and perhaps DC identifying the "Upper South", which they truly are?
  3. I post very little but observe and read these posts daily. My main concerns are the upcoming weather trends and their effect on energy prices. On January 25, various weather models began indicating eastern US cold intrusions beginning around February 5 and continuing. Several posters on the January thread made note as well beginning on the 25th. The morning of January 26, the prices bid on the NYMEX natural gas futures market for cash and March 2016 delivery, as well as the stock prices for several companies producing or transporting natural gas began increasing and continued to do so into Friday night's aftermarket trading. Investors are observing and acting with huge amounts of cash. We in the energy markets are convinced that most of February and a good portion of March will be cold in the eastern half of the US. The mantra of "the trend is your friend" is not just a hope for a southeast or east coast winter storm for us. It's a market marker or breaker. And, the markets have been speaking loudly for a week now in response to near future weather observations and predictions of a cold weather outbreak. BTW....I thank the many observers on this site who help interpret weather models! I am by no means a professional or amateur met. Just an enthusiast and a keen observer of these discussions.
  4. Read my post on the "what we've learned" thread.
  5. Use models and various comments from forum posters for what they really are: guides, not gospels; and calculated estimates at a given point in time while looking for a future event to occur. Both economic and weather models use samples of data in an attempt to establish a trend. Both professionals are observing and interpreting those respective trends and IF we do our jobs right, the POSIBILITIES our cumulative modeling samples illustrate become PROBILITIES of an outcome. The short take and advice is this: translate models and interpretations loosely. And, understand that no matter how good you may think a particular model or forecast will depict a weather event, the final outcome will always be somewhat different at best. We are all winter weather weenies, even the pros. Objectivity is not part of our DNA and we each are going to root for the model or forecast we individually want to see occur. But, the outcome "is what it is", and always will be.
  6. Exactly. I invested in natural gas this morning. The east coast medium term forecast is already altering energy company strategies for the next 15 to 60 days forward. And it is guys like JB, Allan, and Robert we are listening to.
  7. I'm certainly not a professional met and I seldom post, but I pay attention to mets daily and the valid discussions on these boards. As a professional economist/mathematician I'll admit I am watching closely for the first solid indications of a SSW and concurrent pacific changes/PV split. The natural gas markets and heating oil futures markets are currently imploding all due to the absence of eastern US cold weather. I expected a very warm December and I expect to see a substantial shift of cold to the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS by +/-January 10th. As soon as the aforementioned changes are being forecasted and show progression, I'm buying natural gas and heating oil futures. Yes, there is still a risk, but one I believe to be diminishing daily. I'm expecting to put money on the POTENTIAL of real winter weather during January-March. If the potential comes to fruition, lots of money will be made by those investing in these two energy sources. btw.......As an economist, I feel for you mets who post on these boards. Just like me, you're always being commanded to gaze into that crystal ball called "the future" and spit out guaranteed prophesies.
  8. Leaves are at peak above 4000ft. Grandfather Mountain is beautiful right now. I was in the area Thursday and Friday am.
  9. Hello all......I rarely post, but always read what others are saying. FWIW....I live in Raleigh and have a house at Beech Mountain, NC, near the ski resort. Our elevation is slightly more than 5500 feet. The records show that the 2009-2010 winter dropped 137.6" of natural snow at Beech. A very definitive microclimate exists here on the Watauga/Avery County line in North Carolina where Beech, Sugar, and Hawks Nest ski resorts are located and surrounds the town of Banner Elk, NC. This area is about 12 NW of Appalachian Ski Mountain and our peaks are approx. 1500' higher than that of Appalachian. And, in the winter of 2009-2010 produced almost double the snowfall total recorded at Appalachian.