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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

i think the lack of n-stsream contribution to this thing ... at critical spatial-temporal opportunities while it was in route trundling east through the s is hugely contributory in what doomed this event for us. 

 

it may in fact still somehow shock all and throw the deformation axis up to alb-pwm and yadda yadda yadda fantasy getting dumb lucky, ...but probably won't. 

 

excluding that unlikely event ... i'm looking at a maxed out core at 24 hours, then, a 48 hours it's an open wave s of ns, in the process of flattening ever further out across the north atlantic.  i think that whole behavior sort of exposes some issues this thing has had all along. it needed an extra kick, some way to deepen the core or at least maintain it's depth as it tries(d) to leave the ma.  it would have released more latent heat on whole...dumping it into the downstream atlantic ridging, and then feeding back on forcing it to turn more up the coast. that's how these things work.  

 

as is, it's simply all been/be a matter of having enough intensity but it's maxed... it just dies with the exhaustion of mlvs, again ...indicative by the fact that the trough is filling pretty rapidly after 24 hours...

 

all this could be entire correct and still snow 6" in BOS out of this... but, for all intents and purposes, this far n is really saved from impact.  

 

one thing that occurs to me ... we had discussed at length multiple times this season that deconstructive wave interference seemed to be dominating the stream interactive behavior.  it's perhaps ironic that having 0 wave interference didn't help our one chance so far this winter at season recuperation. 

Long story short: Storm missing to south, it might snow here. Stay tuned.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted

It's going to blow watching the precip hit a wall on the south coast... urgh. 

 

Eh, who knows

It would be almost funny if the deform line somehow set up right in the middle of Boston. You could hop on the Red Line under a clotted sky in Alewife and get off in Braintree to ten inches. That would be something.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Usually you engender feeling of hope like some elaborate SCI-FI script, but that was terrible.

 

:lmao: 

 

sorry ma-man...  not sure what else one could add that isn't some denial of truth and/or delusion.   

 

i try to be as objective as possible.  the models would have to be utterly wrong about the rate of deep layer trough weakening set to initiate near dawn tomorrow that really goes on toward the death of mechanical forcing like a gun toting manic depressive on heroine withdrawal ...  

 

this thing just commits suicide on the Del Marva ... i just argue that the lack of re-invigorating n stream arrival is suspect as to why.

 

if one goes into the kocin library and looks up all these events, most have such a supporting arrival.  heh, in the newtonian sense of it, they have to, because there are no perpetual motion machines. 

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
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Man, you are frustrated :lol:

 

I've already had my melts.

I'm just disappointed. Plus my sleep schedule is screwed. I fell asleep at 8pm last night and woke up at 1am been awake since. So I was up for the start of the good trends leading up to that NAM run. Seeing all the globals continue to blow was a solid disappointment. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
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if one goes into the kocin library and looks up all these events, most have such a supporting arrival.  heh, in the newtonian sense of it, they have to, because there are no perpetual motion machines. 

 

Oh yeah? Then how does Western New England keep getting screwed over and over and over?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'm just disappointed. Plus my sleep schedule is screwed. I fell asleep at 8pm last night and woke up at 1am been awake since. So I was up for the start of the good trends leading up to that NAM run. Seeing all the globals continue to blow was a solid disappointment. 

 

Never fall for the mesoscale model bait at 36h+ out. Classic trap you fell for.

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
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Except I don't see any station in PA reporting precip. Far southern OH and northern WV yes, but that's all I'm seeing.

 

My friend in Florence, KY said that flurries just started...but the radar has showed good echos over her for a few hours...people seem to be getting excited and wishcasting this thing north...but real time obs indicate the strength of the dry air this has to fight on the northern fringe...i would not be excited to be in the .1 or .2 inch precip accums...it's just going to be virga...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I'm just disappointed. Plus my sleep schedule is screwed. I fell asleep at 8pm last night and woke up at 1am been awake since. So I was up for the start of the good trends leading up to that NAM run. Seeing all the globals continue to blow was a solid disappointment. 

That was one of the main reasons that I spiraled down hill....4 hrs per night to lie in weight for the euro and its ensemble of whores to run the train on me.

You can work through it if you're young and are rewarded; however now being on the wrong side of 35 and having my heart ripped out after waiting since last fall for that event, I just lost it.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
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My friend in Florence, KY said that flurries just started...but the radar has showed good echos over her for a few hours...people seem to be getting excited and wishcasting this thing north...but real time obs indicate the strength of the dry air this has to fight on the northern fringe...i would not be excited to be in the .1 or .2 inch precip accums...it's just going to be virga...

That's what we had down here 2/6/10. Smoked a ton of virga and 30dbz echoes led to a whooping 2". You could see the milky look to the clouds as it snowed aloft

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