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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II


CapturedNature

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My issue is Saturday evening. It looks like one final push of the CCB from that vort lobe moving N and NW. I think that happens. Now will this hit eastern and SE areas? This is aside from the H7 fronto band along south coast. My best guess is that the S coastline is getting S+ for a time. I think the banding makes it. My issue is BOS and I can't get a good feel...but it makes me nervous the lift monster lurks just offshore...especially if I were in SE MA.

 

Challenging also because  is it's not a large scale synoptic feature that drives that lift, it's a piece of vorticity that happens to sling up and invigorate a low with a CCB into SNE...

 

And given the shifts in the past 12 hours, I'm not even sure the large scale synoptic features (e.g. placement and track of ULL) are finalized yet... not by a computer but would love to start comparisons of RAP outputs of NAM vs. the rest.

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Can any Met talk about the Virga aspect in NCT and the Pike region. I know models are printing out precip but looking at RH values, dews, Pwats, etc I'm wondering if we can saturate fully in that region?

 

Models sometimes underestimate this. It's very dry at 850 and with a screaming N wind, it would be worrisome. I worry about that near the pike.

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RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

Brought that newly formed CCB further NW this run into E MA. Upped BOS area by a few inches. We'll have to watch that. Prob will be choking on sand but someone nearby could do a lot better than forecasts have right now.

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