winterymix Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 whatever (-)NAO we have isn't doing its thing. Storm aren't modeled with impressive phasing and with any slow turn up the coast. Once again anything promising is ten days out. Now we seem down to the 25 days from 1-20 to about 2-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 whatever (-)NAO we have isn't doing its thing. Storm aren't modeled with impressive phasing and with any slow turn up the coast. Once again anything promising is ten days out. Now we seem down to the 25 days from 1-20 to about 2-15. How about the 25 days after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 whatever (-)NAO we have isn't doing its thing. Storm aren't modeled with impressive phasing and with any slow turn up the coast. Once again anything promising is ten days out. Now we seem down to the 25 days from 1-20 to about 2-15. Seems like only normal to slightly above normal in the 10 to 15 day range, as the Pacific looks to overwhelm yet again. As Don suggested the big rise in the SOI and its relationship to ridging over SE Canada. History repeating itself, in so far that we do not do well in very strong El Ninos in these parts , with only a exception storm every once in awhile. I heard talk as well about forcing in the Pacific changing, as as well as the hoped for El Nino weakening not occurring. If anything , as many have mentioned already, it's holding its own. If we have a favorable period, it will most likely be in my opinion after the reshuffle and the warm up. Seems later Feb and into early March may be quite the ending to winter in terms of significant snowfalls. If things line up it could be a very stormy and cold period for a two week , maybe three week stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why are people comparing this weekend to Jan 30? That storm wasn't missed. It was modeled for days to rip the southern mid Atlantic all the way up to about Harrisonburg. In the last 24 the models moved some of the heavier precip up about 150 miles. Not 750. in balto sat forecast was for sunny skies highs in mid 20, kocin even said storm was progged out to sea, there was mno mention of the storm on friday night news cast, I was graduating from high school that year,. remember it crystal clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why are people comparing this weekend to Jan 30? That storm wasn't missed. It was modeled for days to rip the southern mid Atlantic all the way up to about Harrisonburg. In the last 24 the models moved some of the heavier precip up about 150 miles. Not 750. weenies going to weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 weenies going to weenie the storm track was similar and presented by a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 the storm track was similar and presented by a met Whether the modeling missed it or not in 1966, what will happen with this weekend's "event" is not remotely comparable. Its a weak, sheared shortwave with no chance of producing a blizzard, or even a major winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Just a huge lolz from the Baltimore Sun this AM: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-sunday-brings-next-chance-for-seasons-first-measurable-snow-20160113-story.html Desperately needed up here - a northern beltway version of CWG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 06z GFS sheds some hope for next week at hr 186. LOLZ. I'm not falling for that one again. Silly GFS. Trix are for kids. The 8-10 Day year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Just a huge lolz from the Baltimore Sun this AM: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-sunday-brings-next-chance-for-seasons-first-measurable-snow-20160113-story.html Desperately needed up here - a northern beltway version of CWG... Pretty bad. At least the "clipper" option is mentioned. lol. If we do see snow in the air Sunday, it would likely come from something embedded in the northern stream with the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 the storm track was similar and presented by a met NO IT WASN'T. It was a storm that slid across Tennessee and the Va/NC border. This time we are talking about trying to get a storm in the deep southeast to turn the corner and ride the coast. They aren't even close to being the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Whether the modeling missed it or not in 1966, what will happen with this weekend's "event" is not remotely comparable. Its a weak, sheared shortwave with no chance of producing a blizzard, or even a major winter storm. I thought we were talking about 2010!! LOLOL. If so, count this as my apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I thought we were talking about 2010!! LOLOL. If so, count this as my apology. lol i thought that at first too. Either way the comparison is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 welp, I guess we're left hoping for an inch with the passage of the arctic front on Monday, and that's stretching it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 welp, I guess we're left hoping for an inch with the passage of the arctic front on Monday, and that's stretching it Well, we've got the 8 to 10 days away thing. Every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 welp, I guess we're left hoping for an inch with the passage of the arctic front on Monday, and that's stretching it are we already giving up on the storm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 are we already giving up on the storm next week? It will be gone on the 12z GFS... so we will not have to worry about it. We already went from 10+ to 4+ in one model run... I think it will produce an dusting on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well, we've got the 8 to 10 days away thing. Every week. The parallel at 180 doesn't look good for it. Looks like it would go north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 are we already giving up on the storm next week? I was just stunned we might get an inch from Arctic front. My eggs in that basket for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I was just stunned we might get an inch from Arctic front. My eggs in that basket for now. I think the same way. I mean yea, I watch the stuff way out there but I don't invest much at all until we get close enough in time to really understand the pros and cons. We're at least 3 days away before that discussion. My wag is it tracks to our west. Not the best ens mean h5 setup for an easy under us. For all we know we get a midweek wave that amplifies enough to give us another minor event. That possibility probably deserves more attention than next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think the same way. I mean yea, I watch the stuff way out there but I don't invest much at all until we get close enough in time to really understand the pros and cons. We're at least 3 days away before that discussion. My wag is it tracks to our west. Not the best ens mean h5 setup for an easy under us. For all we know we get a midweek wave that amplifies enough to give us another minor event. That possibility probably deserves more attention than next weekend. Would take anything. The only snow I have seen this year was north of Vegas in November when I was there for work. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I was just stunned we might get an inch from Arctic front. My eggs in that basket for now. I did say it was a stretch, soooooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I did say it was a stretch, soooooo.... Sorry. I got ahead of myself. You have better chance than me anyway. Flakes would be cool anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I have to believe that a bunch of vorts floating around next week with some very cold air should produce something right? Well unless our luck is really bad...and so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Is there something we need the first system to do to get the 2nd system to come up the coast? Or is it just a miracle chance? ETA: Not like 12z GFS is showing that anyway out to 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well, the GFS made a decisive move towards the euro. Way south and ots compared to previous runs. It was trending that way the last couple but this particular run may put to rest some of the questions about a steadfast GFS at medium leads with zero euro support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS just moved the first system over 300 miles west this run. Big shifts can still happen. GFS moved the first wave east only to bring it back into the picture. happens all the time. tons of time for the horrible trend to reverse itself. energy still hasn't really been sampled yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So now we are focusing on the Day 8 chance... I hope it shows up on the OP run this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS just moved the first system over 300 miles west this run. Big shifts can still happen. GFS moved the first wave east only to bring it back into the picture. happens all the time. tons of time for the horrible trend to reverse itself. energy still hasn't really been sampled yet the problem with system 1 isn't whether it is west, or east, is it the great lakes low that is wrapping up all the cold air. system one is rainer unless that low gets out of the way. system two is OTS as there is no block to keep it along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So now we are focusing on the Day 8 chance... I hope it shows up on the OP run this run I'm starting to focus on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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