high risk Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Justin badly misinterpreted the info. Yes, NCEP has a new supercomputer system up and running now, but none of the operational models are running on it yet. They all need to be converted to run in the new environment, and a lot of testing is needed before the models "go live" on the new system. Even the GFS parallel is on the "old" system. For anyone that follows Justin Berk on FB, he just posted an article from NOAA about the recent GFS upgrade (dated 1-11-16) Thinks this weekend is a good test to see if the GFS has indeed passed up the Euro. Fingers crossed, but I'm not holding my breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Through 15 hours the wave that is eventually associated with the Sun Night storm is a tad stronger out in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Are we really hoping the GFS is right versus every other model? I'm not bashing it, but it's an outlier at this point. Well since there isn't really anything else to look @, yes we are....It is obviously an outlier, but the GFS has won battles in the past. Ask NYC about the Boxing day storm....48 hours out the EURO had flurries and the GFS was a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Is that good or bad.You ask too many questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The 12z EPS wasn't bad WRT the Day 9 event. There is a slight wedge signal @ 216 hours which for an ENS mean is good. It isn't an amazing look, but there is def going to be a storm in that time frame, will it be a cutter? Probably, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Double rainbows! What does it mean! Probably nothing but funny anyways! Thanks for sharing! =) Lol my post was sarcasm....@ 60 hrs the wave doesn't look as strong as the 12z did at 66, so that doesn't bode well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks like a dead ringer for '97/'98 at this point.Be careful to remember there is more to weather then just our backyard. Plus a similar result of no snow can come from very different patterns. I was at penn state that winter and we had already had several significant snowstorms by now there. The ski resorts in New England were crushed that year also. Snowshoe to wisp did very well also. There are of course some pattern similarities but significant differences also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Definitely more cold air than 97/98 around here. Will we even get precip from the first sys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18z GFS has 1004 SLP just S of Mobile Bay Alabama at 81 87 -- SE GA 1000mb SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A step back this run. Which should be expected. Not as amped and weaker than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Looks to be going negative over TAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At 66hr can't tell but I think the wave may be stronger You're learning, but no it doesn't look strtonger. As you continue to look at model run after model run you'll get better at seeing what goes into a good winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This is going to be a slow trend toward the Euro it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS is nearly the exact same as 6z. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_all_18.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 they keep upgrading the GFS and it keeps looking like crap compared to the euro. Instead of an upgrade, how about starting from scratch and building a competiive model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 NAM has snow across the region at 06z sunday, about 12 hours earlier than the GFS. So we have 2 out of 4 now, if you want to include the 84 hr. NAM as an actual model. LOL What NAM are you looking at? And what region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z GFS will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What NAM are you looking at? And what region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the 12zGFS/18z84Nam is a deadly combination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 cant wait to see the day 9 storm on the 18z gfs head towards Lansing, Mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No model had the precip with Fridays storm right until today so there's still hope for a dramatic change. Probably unlikely cause it's a challenging setup to get a storm to track far enough west due to reasons others have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 147 hrs there is a decent S/W near the Lakes that could help build HP behind it in time for the Day 8-9 thing, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 No model had the precip with Fridays storm right until today so there's still hope for a dramatic change. Probably unlikely cause it's a challenging setup to get a storm to track far enough west due to reasons others have mentioned. I was just thinking the same thing. Can one of our Euro people tell me what the Euro showed for Friday night at about 96-120 because what the gfs is showing is nothing like what it had at 120. I'm wondering now if we get any precip out of it (compared to what it had). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow, I REALLY like the look @ 159 hours....Lots of confluence to our NW, HP building, the shortwave out west doesn't look overly strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 What NAM are you looking at? And what region? Composite reflectivity is useless IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The confluence might even shear out the whole system, though I'd rather have it that way then for it to show a Lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Definitely more cold air than 97/98 around here. Will we even get precip from the first sys? And that is a big difference plus by now we had already had several 36 and rain coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The confluence might even shear out the whole system, though I'd rather have it that way then for it to show a Lakes cutter Looks like it will be a Southern Slider, but a great look @ this range FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Big hit for S VA, NW NC, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Big hit for S VA, NW NC,looks like the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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