packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 not true. It almost always snows in the mtns even into north georgia before the I-95 cities see their first snow. I saw the Para and it has two lows one goes thru tenn and the other tracks along the gulf and up the coast. I seriously doubt that's how it plays out. Agreed, I am speaking for non-elevation areas. It's crazy the mountains haven't seen much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Agreed, I am speaking for non-elevation areas. It's crazy the mountains haven't seen much.I have only seen flurries a few times this year, nothing measurable yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12 NAM does not provide much hope for flurries Tuesday night. (but)You never know how these upper level disturbances develop so it might come down to tracking radar returns Tuesday. **for the mountain folks you should have a better chance. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160109+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=363 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12 NAM does not provide much hope for flurries Tuesday night. (but)You never know how these upper level disturbances develop so it might come down to tracking radar returns Tuesday. **for the mountain folks you should have a better chance. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160109+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=363 Just about every good clipper we have ever had here was never forecasted to be more than "just flurries"....on the downside 98% of clippers here are either dry or "just flurries"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Getting better...but you can see the problem, need the PV to slide east a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 JMO the 0z euro isn't happening but the odds that someone is going to get snowed on during that time frame just went way up. See, I can be positive when it is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 JMO the 0z euro isn't happening but the odds that someone is going to get snowed on during that time frame just went way up. See, I can be positive when it is warranted. :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think the earlier the storm can get here, the better the chance the cold will be here and in place , or delay the clipper to have the best cold air available !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 LOL interesting run last night huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I doubt the Euro will verify either, but if anyone wants to know what the ideal scenario is for a board wide snowstorm cut and paste the 216 hour panel. My lord, perfect confluence in the northeast, sprawling Midwest high pressure, perfect tract for a low with a baroclinic zone buffered by high pressure in the Caribbean. That is what we are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 LOL interesting run last night huh? It was a thing of beauty for sure! If we can just get that look within 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Good morning everyone. It's been a long time since I have been on here. I want to thank everyone who takes the time to keep us up to date on the computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow what a run.. I really think we can reel in a nice southern solution but obviously widespread 10"+ storm for the SE would be insane. However, if that happens, this is the pattern and year for it to happen in. Looking at that Op run I'm not actually thinking "throw it out" even though it doesn't have great ensemble support, I kinda want to hold more to it considering the Super Nino and pattern. For those wondering why it doesn't have a ton of ensemble support on the snow meteograms, that's normal this far out. I posted a post yesterday on the 50/50 low and the high placement from 00z GFS in a 24 hour period of runs...it's important to watch trends and I honestly can't see this trending in the wrong direction in terms of will it be cold enough. The question is all in the vorticity maps and simply high placement, will the s/w hold and will the track stay or will it go out to sea? I'm leaning towards the previous, because of the fact that the cold modeled isn't exactly oppressive enough, it's just right which is the case for many of SE big snowstorms, which Jonesing just touched on. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I found this on GSP discussion board this morning but we are already aware it this. It's just good to hear it coming from them: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ARE REALLY UP IN THEAIR...AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES. THEGFS HAS HAD VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERNSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OR STAYSHUNTED SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT. THE 00Z RUN HASA CLASSIC MILLER-A LOW TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GULF OFMAINE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD PROBABLY RESULT INSOME SNOW ACRS THE CWFA...AT LEAST IN THE MTNS. MEANWHILE...THE 00ZGFS HAS SUCH A SHUNTED SYSTEM...THAT OUR AREA IS DRY. THE PREVIOUSFCST AND THE LATEST WPC HAVE CHC POPS RETURNING DURING FRIDAY INTOFRIDAY NIGHT WITH STILL VERY CHILLY TEMPS. I BACKED OFF INTRODUCINGANY SNOW BEYOND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR TO THE NWPIEDMONT. BUT IF THE 00Z ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...ACCUMULATING SNOWMAY BE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. HOPEFULLY...THE MODELSWILL START CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow what a run.. I really think we can reel in a nice southern solution but obviously widespread 10"+ storm for the SE would be insane. However, if that happens, this is the pattern and year for it to happen in. Looking at that Op run I'm not actually thinking "throw it out" even though it doesn't have great ensemble support, I kinda want to hold more to it considering the Super Nino and pattern. For those wondering why it doesn't have a ton of ensemble support on the snow meteograms, that's normal this far out. I posted a post yesterday on the 50/50 low and the high placement from 00z GFS in a 24 hour period of runs...it's important to watch trends and I honestly can't see this trending in the wrong direction in terms of will it be cold enough. The question is all in the vorticity maps and simply high placement, will the s/w hold and will the track stay or will it go out to sea? I'm leaning towards the previous, because of the fact that the cold modeled isn't exactly oppressive enough, it's just right which is the case for many of SE big snowstorms, which Jonesing just touched on. Fun times ahead. And the thing is even if it's not that extreme, or the precip goes out to sea, there is another wave coming behind that, and another behind that. It has been that way since fall, with the precip coming in waves and sticking around for 2 or 3 days. So, if the first one doesn't hit us, there are plenty of chance for more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 gfs not gonna do it for the first euro storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 gfs not gonna do it for the first euro storm. Yep, that low is farther north than the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 gfs not gonna do it for the first euro storm. Nope...but it is exactly where you would expect the GFS to be at this range: confused and supressed with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 But it is setting up well for the second system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Day 5-6 was close, closer then I expected. Keeps 3 pieces of energy just separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 sticking around for 2 or 3 days. If I had a nickel... How many times have you seen it snow for three straight days? I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Would be surprised if the day 8 event is not a little south of 6z run. Of course this is GFS in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If I had a nickel... How many times have you seen it snow for three straight days? I'm curious. I had that in 2012! Was amazeballs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If I had a nickel... How many times have you seen it snow for three straight days? I'm curious. I didn't say it would.snow 3 straight days. I said when we have had precip here since the start of fall it always sticks around for 2 or 3 days. So, if that keeps up, then it increases the chance for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 To much going on for GFS after day 7, quit looking. CMC has day 5 and day 8 events but cuts them up apps, phase/overamp happy CMC so makes sense. Let's see ensembles in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Via Eric Webb @WebberWeather on Twitter (he posted this to facebook) he sums this up nicer than I've seen anyone...so here goes: Irregardless of what actually unfolds over the next few weeks & aside from the favorable MJO (phase 7-8 tends to produce the most winter storms on avg in NC (at least since 1975)), background ENSO w/ strong subtropical jet, & favorable near-equatorial 200VP signal, this is a pretty classic setup @ 500mb for something to pop in the southeastern US. Top 20 Southeastern US National Climate Data Center's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) snowstorms 500mb using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-2015) (first pic) & NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis (1900-2012) (2nd pic) vs the ECMWF & GFS ENS. Hence, we may have a legitimate opportunity at wintry weather in/around Martin Luther King Day, but as always, a lot will change between now & then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It sure seems the Euro usually leads the way and the GFS follows a lot more often than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Alright! Alright! Alright! Whos' staying up for the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Via Eric Webb @WebberWeather on Twitter (he posted this to facebook) he sums this up nicer than I've seen anyone...so here goes: Do you have the link to his facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover29 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Our locat met is talking about it....Chris Justus, Meteorologist *SNOW THREAT* I have been telling you the pattern is ripe for wintry weather and now we have a few threats to watch. The upcoming cold air is something I'm fairly confident about. The approaching moisture-packed systems and their strength and track are things I'm not confident about yet. I'll have a full video update today by 4:30pm and tonight on WYFF News 4 at 6pm. Timeline Photos · 1 hour ago · Facebook Mentions · View Full Size · Report Photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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