CaryWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 All three global ensembles agree on this general look day 8...hmmm Sitting here on 1/8 I'd call that a win Pack. Can't ask for more right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Somebody north of FL is getting snow from that. That is screensaver worthy for the ultimate block. I saw the JMA in the NY forum. Looked sweet for an epic storm similar to 18z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Somebody north of FL is getting snow from that. That is screensaver worthy for the ultimate block. aw shucks ... lol should say: Somebody in north FL is getting snow from that. Hey - Go Folks !!!!! and let's hope it works - the long range NAO bothers me .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 aw shucks ... lol should say: Somebody in north FL is getting snow from that. Hey - Go Folks !!!!! and let's hope it works - the long range NAO bothers me .... I wouldn't rule it out with that block. If there were ever a pattern that N FL could cash in it might be this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Somebody north of FL is getting snow from that. That is screensaver worthy for the ultimate block. I saw the JMA in the NY forum. Looked sweet for an epic storm similar to 18z yesterday There, been looking for a profile pic for a while. How's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There, been looking for a profile pic for a while. How's that? Well played my friend. I might have to take that para GFS pic from earlier....or the 18z from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I wouldn't rule it out with that block. If there were ever a pattern that N FL could cash in it might be this one. my luck - it'll be a day i'm on the docket with a transplant judge from minnesota who hates snow and won't let us out to play ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sitting here on 1/8 I'd call that a win Pack. Can't ask for more right now Well ensembles have some skill with generalities at day 7-8, let's see how close this verifies. Just went back and looked at how Dec 31st runs verified to today and did OK with general blocking, trough/ridge placements and temps. Obviously muted being 8 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Fishel just showed a model that shows a 28% chance of 1" or more of snow in Raleigh through January 27. Says there is a little hope Would be nice if he explained why he thought that was right when all the indicies are favorable for snow heading into the rest of the month, and these are the indicies that have proved to give Raleigh 25% more snow days than usual instead of just showing a model and say there is little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Would be nice if he explained why he thought that was right when all the indicies are favorable for snow heading into the rest of the month, and these are the indicies that have proved to give Raleigh 25% more snow days than usual instead of just showing a model and say there is little hope.He said there is A little hope, not there is little hope; huge difference. A 28% for snow for the rest of the month is a decently high blanket probability.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 He said there is A little hope, not there is little hope; huge difference. A 28% for snow for the rest of the month is a decently high blanket probability.... Okay. My bad. Read that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Would be nice if he explained why he thought that was right when all the indicies are favorable for snow heading into the rest of the month, and these are the indicies that have proved to give Raleigh 25% more snow days than usual instead of just showing a model and say there is little hope. I have lived here my whole life (43 years). He has been weather forecasting in this area since I was a kid. He knows that our annual mean snowfall in this area is around 3-6 inches. I may be off some on this so someone correct me if I am wrong. We often get less than that and some years we get 0 inches of snow. I personally think he shows stuff like this to downplay it because he probably gets hammered if he calls for snow and it doesn't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 He said there is A little hope, not there is little hope; huge difference. A 28% for snow for the rest of the month is a decently high blanket probability.... Agree wholeheartedly . Fish is a conservative met when it comes to inclement weather in Jan-Feb. If he's running 28% there's a decent chance coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Did he show this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Fishel does not like to even mention snowfall or show accumulation maps until maybe 24-48 hours out. He has tons of experience here and knows how these things work themselves out. He says all the time, "I'd rather be right, than first" I will say that last year everyone was giving him a hard time on here for downplaying the upcoming "huge" snowstorm b/c his map only showed maybe 2-4 inches for Raleigh and he warned it could be even less. He was pretty much right. That particular system was a huge let down in Wake...especially southern Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let's all hope this low riding NE this weekend can do its thing and set the table right for latter next week. We've got the blocking and plenty of opportunity with all the southern stream vorts. To me the biggest key is how the 50/50 low sets up. I can't emphasize enough how critical it is that it stays consolidated. Exact position is gonna be important but we can't have 2 lobes floating around up there or our temps are gonna be a mess. Got to solve this part of the equation first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Fishel does not like to even mention snowfall or show accumulation maps until maybe 24-48 hours out. He has tons of experience here and knows how these things work themselves out. He says all the time, "I'd rather be right, than first" I will say that last year everyone was giving him a hard time on here for downplaying the upcoming "huge" snowstorm b/c his map only showed maybe 2-4 inches for Raleigh and he warned it could be even less. He was pretty much right. That particular system was a huge let down in Wake...especially southern Wake. Oh heck, I'll admit I was one when it came to his "I'd call it the same way again..." post 2015 Feb winter event article when it came to that snow-to-sleet storm we had in the Triangle, when he predicted a heavy zr would occur and we all knew that transition would not happen here this far north. Still, I respect the man and know his tendencies with forecasting. Hence, my previous comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There is iron in NCSNOW's words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Did he show this? Honestly, I wouldn't trust that map if I could hand color in every pixel. Still, the Triangle looks to be in the +20% range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There is iron in NCSNOW's words LOL or something else. The southern stream is going to deliver at minimum some light overrunning events or possibly a phased miller A. Jury is gonna be out on that one till mid week and we'll see way more twist and turns each set of op runs. Timing and strength of the cold is my concern. But what else is new tracking these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Since y'all are on a Fishel kick... he reitterated on the 11:00 that 'there is a chance the week after next' of wintery precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS going Op euro on us, splits the PV send a piece west of lakes. Model agreement. Essentially a repeat of this weekend, cutter. Cutters gonna cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z GFS= Fail,maybe next run................. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Since y'all are on a Fishel kick... he reitterated on the 11:00 that 'there is a chance the week after next' of wintery precipitation.Based on latest GFS , he will be right! Dumpster fire ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 0z gfs jan16 1-3" nc mountains 3-6" going up towards Blacksburg, va snow above 950' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z GFS =Fail 00z CMC=Fail What can ya say but.................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z GFS =Fail 00z CMC=Fail What can ya say but.................lol I'll say it'll be back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Greg Fishel is an outstanding met who has been at this since the 1980s. His caution is usually warranted around here. Also, I'm gonna shamelessly brag that I know him personally and can say that in spite of his buzzkill reputation he is very, very much a weather weenie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 winter storm hr 252 for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 winter storm hr 252 for NC There's almost always a winter storm at 252 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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