Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't wanna put words into anyone's mouth, but the 15-18th period was the time period Wes was interested in I believe. 

That looks good but if you dig into the EPS they really don't support it turning into anything.  They, like the GFS, keep the northern stream dominant and bring clippers north of us while suppressing the STJ well to our south.  Mean snowfall on last nights EPS was down under 1" for DCA.  Its been moving in the wrong direction for that threat window for several days now.  Could come around, the pattern is certainly not hostile and I could easily see something come from it but we need the northern stream to get the @#*! out of the way.

 

AO continues trending further and further negative, have not seen this forecasted drop to those levels in a long time

 

 

I have to believe that this will be of some benefit down the road and prevent a repeat torch.  I may eat those words

While I am not all that confident we score in the Jan 15-20 window everyone is currently looking at, this gives me reason to believe we will have chances further down the line and maybe not that much further.  If we look at some of the past stronger ninos where we did get snow later in the season the snow usually followed the AO tanking by a few weeks.  It wasn't an immediate response.  There was a transition period where it got colder but the snow followed later.  66 seemed to be the fastest response where the AO crashed early Jan and the snowy period hit Jan 20-Feb2.  58 the crash was mid january and the snow didn't hit until mid feb. (yes I know there was one big storm in Dec that year)  We are all getting antsy but I keep telling myself to be patient that there is some reason to think this is progressing towards something positive.  Its why I am excited about the look on the 15 day GGEM ens and EPS vs the GEFS.  Its not that they look awesome its that they are very close to a good pattern and I could easily see us slide into a good snowstorm setup from there. 

 

Since Bob apparently ain't speaking to you anymore (j/k),the problem I see remains that the number after "t+" remains is 240. Other than that, I'd say it looks good but with more a risk of suppression than usual. But that's just off 1 map.

I think the models are trying to rush the progression of the pattern.  First they rushed the breakdown of the northeast ridge in Dec.  Then they rushed the trough pushing east in early January.  Now perhaps they are rushing the start of a more active southern storm track.  Have to hope that is the case. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is definitely making some changes! And the trend map says this can get better the energy coming into Cali is getting faster and stronger run after run now.  tons of potential with cold air in place. this should have happened runs ago. its been killing the energy going over cali but not anymore.
http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's some modeled snow!

 

Kinda reminds me of last year with the PV drops at range. They are hot and heavy out in time and then verify less beastly more often than not. You could see early in the run that the PV wasn't going to be a storm sledge hammer so the vort at the base has a chance to amplify and turn the corner. Could be a blip (and probably is) but a good example of what to look for as we move through medium range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is trying something new at 160 hours or so.   Previously unmodeled s/w is trying to spin up a coastal

 

The SW has been there but just getting a sledge to the head until this run. 

 

Here's the last 3 runs at the same point in time. You can see the PV not as strong on consecutive runs and the vort on 12z turns the corner. I have plenty of doubt but this is something we've seen before. It's how threats emerge as we close in on what originally looked like a cold dry period. 

 

post-2035-0-04966800-1452097607_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-08942900-1452097616_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-30076900-1452097646_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SW has been there but just getting a sledge to the head until this run. 

 

Here's the last 3 runs at the same point in time. You can see the PV not as strong on consecutive runs and the vort on 12z turns the corner. I have plenty of doubt but this is something we've seen before. It's how threats emerge as we close in on what originally looked like a cold dry period. 

 

attachicon.gif0zvort.JPG

 

attachicon.gif6z vort.JPG

 

attachicon.gif12zvort.JPG

In most past experiences, the s/w usually gets better defined as we progress.   Now watch 18z will crush that b**ch hard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That looks good but if you dig into the EPS they really don't support it turning into anything.  They, like the GFS, keep the northern stream dominant and bring clippers north of us while suppressing the STJ well to our south.  Mean snowfall on last nights EPS was down under 1" for DCA.  Its been moving in the wrong direction for that threat window for several days now.  Could come around, the pattern is certainly not hostile and I could easily see something come from it but we need the northern stream to get the @#*! out of the way.

 

 

I thought the EPS showed about the same support as the GEFS for a coastal around the 17th-18th. EPS mean preip for the 3 day period centered around the 17th is .4+/-. But virtually no snow. Looks like temp problems. GEFS members agree. The coastal storms are mostly rain. Obviously it's so far out there it doesn't matter but I think the idea during the period is as good as we thought the last few days as far as a coastal storm goes. Ptype is a whole nuther issue. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was one of the last to jump ship and I'll be one of the last to hop back on. This is the GFS op at a range I believe it tends to do poorly. I have no doubt that the pattern should score something, though I'm not counting on it being that soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not a believer in this exact op run but this is the period we've all been focusing on. At least we have a little more hope the pattern may produce something.

 

I don't think anybody should believe anything beyond 72-96 hours when analyzing a storm threat and thinking in absolutes and even then...

 

The next thing we want to see is if the 12z gefs shows any support to the idea and if the euro op backs off with the pv drop from 0z. Euro op doesn't need to show anything irt to a storm. Just a move towards an opportunity and I'll stay interested.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think anybody should believe anything beyond 72-96 hours when analyzing a storm threat and thinking in absolutes and even then...

 

The next thing we want to see is if the 12z gefs shows any support to the idea and if the euro op backs off with the pv drop from 0z. Euro op doesn't need to show anything irt to a storm. Just a move towards an opportunity and I'll stay interested.  

There were 2 or 3 of the 6z members that showed this type of scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For reference. Here's what the euro showed last night. Very amplified with not chance for a vort to do anything except get hit on the head and die. 

 

attachicon.gifyourow.JPG

 

Help me out a little bit, Bob, please.  Is it the strength of the vortex or its placement that keeps the vort from turning the corner?  From my very-limited knowledge, all I can see is that the trof axis is way to positively tilted for something to turn the corner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...