H2O Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Help me out a little bit, Bob, please. Is it the strength of the vortex or its placement that keeps the vort from turning the corner. From my very-limited knowledge, all I can see is that the trof axis is way to positively tilted for something to turn the corner. its a combo of that and the fact that the PV is displaced so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Help me out a little bit, Bob, please. Is it the strength of the vortex or its placement that keeps the vort from turning the corner? From my very-limited knowledge, all I can see is that the trof axis is way to positively tilted for something to turn the corner. Notice too that on each successive run there's more of a little bump of ridging out in front of the sw. The more of that there is, the more north the low can crawl. Bob will correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 its a combo of that and the fact that the PV is displaced so far south. TY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 There were 2 or 3 of the 6z members that showed this type of scenario. Yea, there's were 2 with virtually the same idea. Hardly enough to call support. If 12z ups the ante then we can at least remain interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Help me out a little bit, Bob, please. Is it the strength of the vortex or its placement that keeps the vort from turning the corner? From my very-limited knowledge, all I can see is that the trof axis is way to positively tilted for something to turn the corner. it's sharp enough to get it to scrape us; notice how far offshore it stays a sharper trough would certainly help with a deeper storm and more qpf thrown back at us....until it gets too sharp and it rains lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I have seen the gfs take a southern plains low and keep it below the Tennessee southern border several times this year at this range. It hasn't happened once IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Notice too that on each successive run there's more of a little bump of ridging out in front of the sw. The more of that there is, the more north the low can crawl. Bob will correct me if I'm wrong. it's sharp enough to get it to scrape us; notice how far offshore it stays a sharper trough would certainly help with a deeper storm and more qpf thrown back at us....until it gets too sharp and it rains lol Each is a good insight to note. Thanks to you both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I have seen the gfs take a southern plains low and keep it below the Tennessee southern border several times this year at this range. It hasn't happened once IIRC. I haven't noticed but we will be in a new long wave pattern from anything up to this point, sooooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As the Chill man noted yesterday. The D+11 cpc superensemble analogs really are weighted heavily towards 1998 and 1983. 6 of the 10 come from those two years and 4 come from 1998. Not sure it means much except that the pattern is evolving towards one similar to the strong nino years. If so, cold air might be hard to hold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I thought the EPS showed about the same support as the GEFS for a coastal around the 17th-18th. EPS mean preip for the 3 day period centered around the 17th is .4+/-. But virtually no snow. Looks like temp problems. GEFS members agree. The coastal storms are mostly rain. Obviously it's so far out there it doesn't matter but I think the idea during the period is as good as we thought the last few days as far as a coastal storm goes. Ptype is a whole nuther issue. yea I posted a little about that in the panic room, the reason we have nothing on the snow maps is because the majority of the ensembles are cool and dry, then the ones that do bring a storm up in the day 10-20 range only do so because the northern branch retreats so much so that we lose the cold well in advance of any precip. Neither is a good situation. We kind of need the northern stream to be close enough to provide the cold, but not so active shooting vorts across to our north and suppressing the STJ. Its a tricky happy medium. I am not overly worried about it since its so far out and we just saw an example of how it can change quickly, just was noting that my confidence we get something is not extremely high like it would be if the guidance was showing a larger majority of hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As the Chill man noted yesterday. The D+11 cpc superensemble analogs really are weighted heavily towards 1998 and 1983. 6 of the 10 come from those two years and 4 come from 1998. Not sure it means much except that the pattern is evolving towards one similar to the storm nino years. If so, cold air might be hard to hold in. at least 58,66, and 78 being squeezed in there offers some hope, even 83 gives us that punchers chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Let's hope that's the case here. It's within the window everyone's been talking about. For now, I'm just enjoying this for the next 6 hours at least... The system the GFS skirts us with is actually the first of two possible threats in the window. The storm on the 17th the GFS gets going a bit too late (interference from the lakes low UGH) is the one that actually has the most support from the ensembles. Small issues like exact placement and timing are irrelevant at this range. That lakes low may or may not even be there, of course seasonal persistence argues it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 ill take that storm at 384 and call it a winter......a sucky winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 At least the gfs shows some stj action this run. Yesterday's runs were totally northern stream dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 At least the gfs shows some stj action this run. Yesterday's runs were totally northern stream dominated. Pretty much sums up this run. Should be seeing the rest of the guidance to show the next two weeks to be very active. Not going to focus on exact position of these storms track, but the idea of how active things will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 ill take that storm at 384 and call it a winter......a sucky winter ok really, lets play that game, give me that low track/position, a nice high to our north and west for a change, and blocking breaking down during that time...and Ill take my chances that the GFS and 380 freaking hours is just a few degrees warm on the lower level temperatures. But go on having your pity party if you want. What was actually a very good run compared to the last few days of op runs. Doesn't mean much yet but its a step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As the Chill man noted yesterday. The D+11 cpc superensemble analogs really are weighted heavily towards 1998 and 1983. 6 of the 10 come from those two years and 4 come from 1998. Not sure it means much except that the pattern is evolving towards one similar to the strong nino years. If so, cold air might be hard to hold in. It's a let the chips fall kinda look we're heading into. 83/98 had their "close calls". I doubt this winter behaves exactly like either. Especially 98's overwhelming bad pac dominance. I wouldn't be shocked if we totally suck it this month. In some ways I'm kind of expecting it. I don't even care about Feb. I never look that far. Time to freak out about Feb sucking in just a few short weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 At least the gfs shows some stj action this run. Yesterday's runs were totally northern stream dominated. AMEN... thats what I take from this more then anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 ill take that storm at 384 and call it a winter......a sucky winter so far yes. But I was directed at the WX discussion in the main thread. Don S. post on -AO will make you smile I think especially if the block holds. Big IF I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 12z GEFS has weak, albeit better than 6z support for a coastal storm on the 13th. Probably shouldn't get too excited other than the fact we will likely have cold-ish air from the 10th-18th, if the models are to be believed. All we need is one well-timed shortwave to show up and winter can begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GEFS is absolutely burying the 17/18th threat into mexico... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 12z GEFS has weak, albeit better than 6z support for a coastal storm on the 13th. Probably shouldn't get too excited other than the fact we will likely have cold-ish air from the 10th-18th, if the models are to be believed. All we need is one well-timed shortwave to show up and winter can begin. Did system 2 split to add a 2.5 or is that new energy out of the South for the 13th? eta: My personal opinion is bolded. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The new gfs unicorn Storm reminds me of the dec 2011 coastal that was forecast to hit but skirted a bit too far east for us. Obviously too far out to even consider exact locations of the low. Not that it matters but I think that was December 26th 2010. Unless there was another one in December of 2011 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looking at the 12z members, every one of them take the weak low to our south and east. For me, it will be interesting to watch this over the next 24-48 hours to see what really happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Can someone post the euro or something from the free maps I see, looks like a weak Low that goes off the NC/VA capes ene....probably little, if any, qpf but that's just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Decent NS vort pass hr 162-174 on the euro. Some flurries in the air at least. I'm not mad at the vort panels though. Another something to watch. So GFS amps a southern stream vort and euro zips a northern stream vort through during the same period... maybe they end up phasing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gefs offers some hope that the op's solution for the 13th isn't crazy. About three members with similar solutions and some more that slide that wave to the south offshore. More stj s/w's also advertised for later. Just a pig of a -nao around the 15th. Would suck to waste that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gefs offers some hope that the op's solution for the 13th isn't crazy. About three members with similar solutions and some more that slide that wave to the south offshore. More stj s/w's also advertised for later. Just a pig of a -nao around the 15th. Would suck to waste that. I just wish there was a negative anomaly somewhere near or just barely south of nova scotia during that period. Some of the earlier runs showed one. Hope the euro eps shows something a tad different for the 15th/16 time frame and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I just wish there was a negative anomaly somewhere near or just barely south of nova scotia during that period. Some of the earlier runs showed one. Hope the euro eps shows something a tad different for the 15th/16 time frame and beyond Day 9 (1/15) from 12Z....Day 10 almost up http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010612&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=697 Day 9 surface and 850's http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016010612&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=409 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Day 10 has potential for sure. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=409 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=313 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=697 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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