Met Winter Banter

[wthrmn654]

Interesting,kinda looks like nino3 and nino3.4 actually rose

[Superstorm93]

Happy new year.

I know we all won't get along one hundred percent of the time, but here's to another year of what makes this sub-forum great.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

[HailMan06]

Happy 2016 everyone!

To one of my closest friends visiting family in Slovakia: Šťastný nový rok!

[MJO812]

Happy New Year weenies

[EasternLI]

Happy new year everyone. Here's to getting some exciting weather in the area in 2016 

[NEG NAO]

Tuesday Morning is going to be the coldest of the season so far - Teens in many areas at least...

 

[MJO812]

0z EPS still likes the Jan 9-10 event. Has a cluster of lows near the benchmark with cold enough 850s.

[SnoSki14]

Impressive cold shot after a record shattering December. If you hate sustained cold periods or cold in general, then this is definitely your kind of winter because it's a quick shot and then we warm up again.

More prolonged cold spells are still a ways away but I doubt we see any "severe" cold because of the Nino factor which is fine by me. Just give me temps cold enough for snow.

Happy New Year!

[IrishRob17]

Happy New Year NYC subforum

GO IRISH!

[PB GFI]

Impressive cold shot after a record shattering December. If you hate sustained cold periods or cold in general, then this is definitely your kind of winter because it's a quick shot and then we warm up again.

More prolonged cold spells are still a ways away but I doubt we see any "severe" cold because of the Nino factor which is fine by me. Just give me temps cold enough for snow.

Happy New Year!

Widespread arctic outbreak days 11 thru 20 .

[uncle W]

ao is still heading in the right direction...two members dive to -5 while another member is positive...the nao is leaning towards negative but not by much...winter is around the corner...

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Widespread arctic outbreak days 11 thru 20 .

On Euro ensembles?

[wthrmn654]

Impressive cold shot after a record shattering December. If you hate sustained cold periods or cold in general, then this is definitely your kind of winter because it's a quick shot and then we warm up again.

More prolonged cold spells are still a ways away but I doubt we see any "severe" cold because of the Nino factor which is fine by me. Just give me temps cold enough for snow.

Happy New Year![/quote

Starting off the new year great I see lol

[PB GFI]

On Euro ensembles?

Yes. After the day 11 system swings NE it collapses the vortex in.

[Rjay]

GO IRISH!

This

[wthrmn654]

06z gfs 2m temperatures have lowered Tuesday's temperatures yet again for 12z Tuesday...incredible

[Yanksfan]

With what we just went through in December with the record warmth, my brother in law is telling me we're in store for a very mild winter. He's telling me there's simply no snow or cold air up north. Don't know where he's getting his information from, but I can tell you one thing he's about to be shell shocked!   

[Doorman]

Wake me up when we get some precip....

 

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

Wake me up when we get some precip....

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Lol. I'm still going for an above normal January (temp wise) with below normal snowfall. I see the STJ overwhelming the CONUS pattern completely. The models are going to have a lot of trouble with a split flow pattern, as they always have in the past. The super Nino will not be denied this month, STJ domination and badly flip flopping models is my call.

[mob1]

Lol. I'm still going for an above normal January (temp wise) with below normal snowfall. I see the STJ overwhelming the CONUS pattern completely. The models are going to have a lot of trouble with a split flow pattern, as they always have in the past. The super Nino will not be denied this month, STJ domination and badly flip flopping models.

You keep using the STJ as a negative factor, just give me cold and an active STJ any day of the week and 4 times on Wednesday.

[PB GFI]

Lol. I'm still going for an above normal January (temp wise) with below normal snowfall. I see the STJ overwhelming the CONUS pattern completely. The models are going to have a lot of trouble with a split flow pattern, as they always have in the past. The super Nino will not be denied this month, STJ domination and badly flip flopping models.

Lol.

[swamplover56]

What other call did you think snowman would make? It's been amazing how his post count coincides with the models being in favor of his call or not. Can't wait to we have a winter storm warning and he's posting about a warm March

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wake me up when we get some precip....

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

This was/is my biggest concern for the middle portion of winter (January-early February). When we do get the cold, it overwhelms the pattern and suppresses the storm track. Hope Im wrong.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Great, great discussion guys,

[mob1]

This was/is my biggest concern for the middle portion of winter (January-early February). When we do get the cold, it overwhelms the pattern and suppresses the storm track. Hope Im wrong.

The STJ won't allow suppression

Seriously though, this was the concern last year as well when it finally got cold, it took a little while for models to start showing precipitation, I think if the precipitation will come as the pattern favors something a little more active than currently depicted.

[Ralph Wiggum]

The STJ won't allow suppression

Seriously though, this was the concern last year as well when it finally got cold, it took a little while for models to start showing precipitation, I think if the precipitation will come as the pattern favors something a little more active than currently depicted.

Im with ya. I think the cold early on will suppress things but as we advance through the winter, we get the cold and the STJ to interact more frequently. Backloaded winter?

[EasternLI]

So, some think the STJ rages and overwhelms the pattern. Meanwhile, some others think the cold presses and overwhelms the pattern. I don't know, sounds like a good recipe for something to me.

[mob1]

So, some think the STJ rages and overwhelms the pattern. Meanwhile, some others think the cold presses and overwhelms the pattern. I don't know, sounds like a good recipe for something to me.

You don't remember our classic cutter to cold and dry patterns? We sometimes get these patterns that have little blocking in general but there are these massive HP's that surpress a storm or two and then we get a nice wound up lakes cutter, rinse, lather and repeat. I don't think this will be the case at all here, but this initial cold won't come with any precipitation so people might get a little restless (especially since we're already in January)

[SnoSki14]

It is always going to be difficult to get a good pattern for snow even in favorable years, which makes me appreciate just how good we've had it since 2000.

I still really like February for this winter when it comes to potential biggies but hey if Jan can deliver something then I won't be mad.

[mob1]

I wouldn't sleep on the 9th just yet, the GFS has something brewing and that storm has shown up on most models (with various outcomes) but it would be another thread the needle job as the real favorable weather comes in after that.