PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It is always going to be difficult to get a good pattern for snow even in favorable years, which makes me appreciate just how good we've had it since 2000. I still really like February for this winter when it comes to potential biggies but hey if Jan can deliver something then I won't be mad. Check out Judah Cohen updated J thru M 2 M temp map. Looks like the JAMSTEC . Jan and Esp Feb look frigid on the Can SIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 HAPPY 2016 FOR ALL. Sorry to say the 60-day CFS for Seattle still shows that the mean 2mT never goes above normal and 85% of the ensemble are below normal. The reverse teleconnection with NYC is not as strong as before but still 65% of the members are for above normal and the mean dips below normal very briefly a few times in the 60 day period. Better get it done Jan. 10-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The STJ won't allow suppression Seriously though, this was the concern last year as well when it finally got cold, it took a little while for models to start showing precipitation, I think if the precipitation will come as the pattern favors something a little more active than currently depicted. Agree - it's rather quite straight forward this year - we will need a Negative NAO to lock in the cold air in order to get the storms moving along in the STJ to move south and east of us to produce snow - if the NAO goes positive when the storm is approaching it will favor it cutting west of us producing frozen to rain or just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Agree - it's rather quite straight forward this year - we will need a Negative NAO to lock in the cold air in order to get the storms moving along in the STJ to move south of us to produce snow - if the NAO goes positive when the storm is approaching it will favor it cutting west of us producing frozen to rain or just plain rain. It's hard to cut with a neg epo. We saw that over the last 2 years. -epo/+pna regimes promote HP through the lakes and force the mean storm track to belly underneath. You always run the risk of cutting one here and there when the trough axis pulls before pulsing , but you are probably looking at EC storm track . Like the last 2 years that PAC setup tends to win the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The STJ won't allow suppression Seriously though, this was the concern last year as well when it finally got cold, it took a little while for models to start showing precipitation, I think if the precipitation will come as the pattern favors something a little more active than currently depicted. Early to mid January was cold and dry last year with boring clippers before we finally got some decent storms to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 You don't remember our classic cutter to cold and dry patterns? We sometimes get these patterns that have little blocking in general but there are these massive HP's that surpress a storm or two and then we get a nice wound up lakes cutter, rinse, lather and repeat. I don't think this will be the case at all here, but this initial cold won't come with any precipitation so people might get a little restless (especially since we're already in January) I think you nailed it with this last part here. This initial cold is just part of the pattern changing. Then we get what seems to be a transient warm up due to return flow from HP sliding off the coast. Its after that, when the trough gets to the east, when things interesting. I think people see "pattern change" and want immediate results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It's hard to cut with a neg epo. We saw that over the last 2 years. -epo/+pna regimes promote HP through the lakes and force the mean storm track to belly underneath. You always run the risk of cutting one here and there when the trough axis pulls before pulsing , but you are probably looking at EC storm track . Like the last 2 years that PAC setup tends to win the day. To be determined IMO - the last couple of winters did not feature a strong El Nino fueled STJ - also exact timing and interactions of the northern and southern stream will determine storm tracks this winter - IMO won't be able to get away with a positive NAO if you like snow along the immediate coast including most of NYC Metro........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 To be determined IMO - the last couple of winters did not feature a strong El Nino fueled STJ - also exact timing and interactions of the northern and southern stream will determine storm tracks this winter - IMO won't be able to get away with a positive NAO if you like snow along the immediate coast including most of NYC Metro........... I like -epo+pna-ao patterns to start. I will gladly take a -nao but sometimes it's just hard to line them all up here. I guess I'm just happy to take those favorable indices , hope for something transient if its absent in the means and roll the dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Word of caution - 12Z GFS op is still showing strong storm signals mid January - don't get to concerned about the nonsense it is showing after 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2009-2010 on the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2009-2010 on the gfs lolWow, it's a Mid Atlantic Weenie's biggest dream, there are at least 3 big storms there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Tuesday morning is really going to hit some people upside the head 14/-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Tuesday morning is really going to hit some people upside the head 14/-8 I haven't even gotten my winter gear out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Source region FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12Z Canadian is handling the mid January storm differently then the 12Z GFS running it up through the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Do you want cold/dry or avg cold with active STJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Monster block on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12Z Canadian is handling the mid January storm differently then the 12Z GFS running it up through the Ohio Valley Euro has the storm on the 9th but is warm and rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 New Thread for the Jan. 10 -13 Potential: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47524-jan-10-13-winter-storm-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro has the storm on the 9th but is warm and rainy Ensembles are the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 New Thread for the Jan. 10 -13 Potential: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47524-jan-10-13-winter-storm-potential/ Way to early....for now we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 New Thread for the Jan. 10 -13 Potential: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47524-jan-10-13-winter-storm-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 New Thread for the Jan. 10 -13 Potential: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47524-jan-10-13-winter-storm-potential/ Denied.Fwiw, not loving the look of the OP Euro in the long range. Waiting on the ensembles to see what's brewing in regards to the coming pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 New Thread for the January 10 -13 Potential: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47524-jan-10-13-winter-storm-potential/ You don't open threads this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Denied. Fwiw, not loving the look of the OP Euro in the long range. Waiting on the ensembles to see what's brewing in regards to the coming pattern change. The eps should be interesting. My ideas for January look to be pretty good so far based on the pattern evolution being shown. It is obviously very early though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Denied. Fwiw, not loving the look of the OP Euro in the long range. Waiting on the ensembles to see what's brewing in regards to the coming pattern change. It doesn't get any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The eps should be interesting. My ideas for January look to be pretty good so far based on the pattern evolution being shown. It is obviously very early thoughI agree, January is almost a lock now to finish BN but it's a but too early to stock up on hand warmers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The eps should be interesting. My ideas for January look to be pretty good so far based on the pattern evolution being shown. It is obviously very early thoughLol OMGDude you are getting destroyed here lol. Week 1 BN a day 10 -11 EC snowstorm followed by 2 weeks of an arctic cold shot. You have been thoroughly embarrassingly wrong. You don't know what you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It doesn't get any betterIn regards to 2 consecutive runs of the OP Euro showing the mean trof centered over the Plains with a deep ull sitting and spinning over the GL? Im reading it as a severe arctic outbreak over the Northen Plains/GL essentially keeping the East on the lee side of the trof. Adjust this to the East a bit, which probably would happen post 240, and we would be in a better position at that time. Verbatim though, the OP Euro looks like it is containing the bitter cold and snow to the N Plains/GL region no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 then why was this allowed to be opened on Dec 29 ??? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47503-increasing-threat-of-significant-east-coast-winter-storm-jan-10-11/ Different subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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