PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Joe Bastardi has painted himself into a corner big time with his winter forecast over the past few days. If it doesn't workout, he will look like a total fool and credibility goes to zeroDude. You are the fool. East based 97/98 and now no pattern change. Enough already. Go play on the children's board. We don't care what your rooting interest is here you have zero ability to analyze a pattern and have been wrong in every pattern /forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It will be interesting to see if the mid-Jan cold shot is transient or not. That day 8-13 range looks to be well AN and a return to the cold west/NW and warm east that's dominated since Nov. It's hard to argue that persistence and even with the artic completely reshuffled we are going to have a sold week of AN in the east and BN in the west. I personally think it's transient and we don't see a flip to sustained cold until end of Jan. I am even starting to doubt that. One thing we do know is that this isn't a 58 repeat. I hope I am wrong though... You totally missed the first 6 days of N Jan cold and are now dismissing the mid Jan cold ? Don't use 5 day means to tell a story. You come up with the wrong answer. If day 10 11 are so warm in the means they skew the back end Day 12 and 13 look plus 1 and N but take inti account there is low pressure there . Plus is - 5 , with a storm is BN. The shot is transient. The head fake ( as you say ) is the warmth. As it is days 1 thru 6 are N and not the plus 8 the CFS saw just a week ago "We know it's not 58 " ? Long way before we can say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 everyone said that when he blew 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 and it hasn't hurt him in the least. Tell that to the energy space. He's got his weenie followers and they are his core audience nowadays. He's killed his credibility in my field (commodities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Dude. You are the fool. East based 97/98 and now no pattern change. Enough already. Go play on the children's board. We don't care what your rooting interest is here you have zero ability to analyze a pattern and have been wrong in every pattern /forecast. It puts the lotion on its skin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It puts the lotion on its skin.... "IT PUTS THE LOTION IN THE BASKET " will you ever get anything right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 "IT PUTS THE LOTION IN THE BASKET " will you ever get anything right ? He also says skin . Anyway I can't wait for you to bust on January through March. There are signs of just that on the modeling starting yesterday afternoon. STJ domination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 He also says skin . Anyway I can't wait for you to bust on January through March. There are signs of just that on the modeling starting yesterday afternoon. STJ domination And today's GFS is cold ... and ? These approaches to the pattern give you a bad result in forecasting. My J thru M forecast is plus 1 at KNYC so I'm not cold. . Just AN snow. But you wouldn't have any idea how that could possibly happen right ? You wouldn't understand Anyway this is why you fail as often as you do here. You root , you ignore guidance and you don't forecast. Don't worry about me busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Dude. You are the fool. East based 97/98 and now no pattern change. Enough already. Go play on the children's board. We don't care what your rooting interest is here you have zero ability to analyze a pattern and have been wrong in every pattern /forecast. things are getting ugly in here quickly today - anyways everyone has to have patience with this pattern change - many of the models are unreliable past day 5 now and are trying to play catch up to the change in the pattern - trying to nail down snowstorm threats 10 - 15 days out is a futile attempt IMHO...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 He also says skin . Anyway I can't wait for you to bust on January through March. There are signs of just that on the modeling starting yesterday afternoon. STJ domination Even JB is backing off on Jan, today saying that Feb was always the month and typically in these nino's we have a 3-4 week period where all heck breaks loose, blah blah blah...I like JB, it's like watching your favorite late night talk show host. 58? or 98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Even JB is backing off on Jan, today saying that Feb was always the month and typically in these nino's we have a 3-4 week period where all heck breaks loose, blah blah blah...I like JB, it's like watching your favorite late night talk show host. 58? or 98? I speak to JB everyday. Not watch. Speak. He's not backing off Jan Said it goes right to the trough in the SE Now pull the 5 day means on the European Jan 1 thru 6 and the day 10 thru 15 and post those maps. That back end are going right to Jan 58 Neither 5 day period look like 98. There is a 5 day warm up in the middle. It's not like you have some SE ridge stuck in the means. The warm shot is in and out. Some of you were plus 8 and plus 5 for the 1st 6 or so days in Jan And are totalling glossing over the error. You guys can go back and see who posted a 5 day 2m euro mean for this period and says it's plus 5 But there into a transient warm up to make the case for 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 yeah, not sure where he gets that JB is backing off on Jan, if anything he's more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 lol at people bringing up 98. JB isnt backing off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 lol at people bringing up 98. JB isnt backing off at all. Pattern is nothing like 98. Not sure why folks think that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I speak to JB everyday. Not watch. Speak. He's not backing off Jan Said it goes right to the trough in the SE Now pull the 5 day means on the European Jan 1 thru 6 and the day 10 thru 15 and post those maps. That back end are going right to Jan 58 Neither 5 day period look like 98. There is a 5 day warm up in the middle. It's not like you have some SE ridge stuck in the means. The warm shot is in and out. Some of you were plus 8 and plus 5 for the 1st 6 or so days in Jan And are totalling glossing over the error. You guys can go back and see who posted a 5 day 2m euro mean for this period and says it's plus 5 But there into a transient warm up to make the case for 98. yeah, not sure where he gets that JB is backing off on Jan, if anything he's more bullish. lol at people bringing up 98. JB isnt backing off at all. I didn't say he was backing off on rest of winter, I said "backing off on January". I just watched his video, did you guys? He said "Feb was always the month" and something to effect of a wild 3-4 week stretch. All I am saying is the next 3 weeks will be predominately warm in the east, I do fully expect the NE (you guys) to have an event and nobody will care if Jan is AN or BN. But, I don't think a warm Jan is out of the question for the east. I have always thought Feb would be great but that's a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Pattern is nothing like 98. Not sure why folks think that. If I removed the dates from the 3 maps above, which two look a like? That's all I am saying...yes we can through the SST debate again but sensible weather has been more like one than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 An Aurora show for some in USA: http://www.aol.com/article/2015/12/30/strong-geomagnetic-storm-may-be-approaching-what-you-need-to-kn/21289793/?icid=maing-grid7%7Chtmlws-sb-bb%7Cdl3%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D1140553469 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 An Aurora show for some in USA: http://www.aol.com/article/2015/12/30/strong-geomagnetic-storm-may-be-approaching-what-you-need-to-kn/21289793/?icid=maing-grid7|htmlws-sb-bb|dl3|sec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D1140553469 Hey man , is that CFS still plus 8 for the 1st week of Jan ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Someone should temper their arrogance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I didn't say he was backing off on rest of winter, I said "backing off on January". I just watched his video, did you guys? He said "Feb was always the month" and something to effect of a wild 3-4 week stretch. All I am saying is the next 3 weeks will be predominately warm in the east, I do fully expect the NE (you guys) to have an event and nobody will care if Jan is AN or BN. But, I don't think a warm Jan is out of the question for the east. I have always thought Feb would be great but that's a long ways out. He didn't even say that he's backing off on January. He was just stating how the models are most likely wrong in regards to the progression of the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 N 850 anomalies give me plus 3 to 5 @ 2M? Are your EC ensembles diff ? Phase 8 -1 are AN in Jan ? The Dec 22 Euro 11 to 15 850 anomalies showed N .Nittany said this would give us +3 to +5 under sunny skies and bare ground vs my N. My thinking was those anomalies coming over that ridge would cool in the means as we got closer. That was always my argument. Now you can see how much colder those anomalies are from the 1st thru the 6th. Let's see how this looks by next week. Also of you read back the CFS was plus 8 for this time period. You guys who want warn want to keep moving the goal posts and just gloss over your own stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Someone should temper their arrogance Didn't you know, half of January has already happened so of course we can accurately assess who was correct in their reasoning and who was not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Someone should temper their arrogance Is that not a legitimate question ? If I was -8 my god I would be bumped 1000x. , but miss warm hey now hands off. Some of you are easy pickings. If you are going to post ideas they are fair game. I argued for N no more no less and still that's was a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Man this thread is brutal to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Man this thread is brutal to read. PB is explaining things but they don't want to listen to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I didn't say he was backing off on rest of winter, I said "backing off on January". I just watched his video, did you guys? He said "Feb was always the month" and something to effect of a wild 3-4 week stretch. All I am saying is the next 3 weeks will be predominately warm in the east, I do fully expect the NE (you guys) to have an event and nobody will care if Jan is AN or BN. But, I don't think a warm Jan is out of the question for the east. I have always thought Feb would be great but that's a long ways out.The subtropical jet needs to weaken A LOT or it dominates the pattern even with polar and arctic blocking. Is the depicted blocking impressive? Yes, no doubt, but the Nino juiced subtropical jet is a dominating force. People need to keep in mind that it's the way January goes wrong IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I think I'm just going sit back and watch for a week or so...to much could go right or wrong..better then bashing each others heads in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 PB is explaining things but they don't want to listen to him. No, he's basically applying his own interpretation to low-resolution, long-term (10+ days) models that are already subject to an enormous error factor as if they were verbatim fact. He's using this reasoning to declare himself correct, as if the time-period in question was already in the past. Then, he rips apart anyone who disagrees with this assessment. This isn't an equity derivs trading floor, it's a science board concerning meteorology and forecasting. By definition, it should lend itself to constructive discussion, not ad-hominem attacks. It needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Meanwhile nat gas is down 8% since JB's tweet. Gotta love the markets, have a way of humbling even the most bombastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Man this thread is brutal to read. That's why it's a banter thread. The bickering has to stop though. Disagreements are great, bickering is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Meanwhile nat gas is down 8% since JB's tweet. Gotta love the markets, have a way of humbling even the most bombastic. Ouch, that's ugly. There's also a huge glut of NG so it can only go up so much. I just got a bill for my December cycle, $110 for a 3500 SQ house...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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