NittanyWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 That mid-month period looks like it's got the best potential (to me, anyway) right now, should this block be believed on modeling. Meanwhile, the undercut out west continues to support the idea of largely above normal temperatures locally for a good chunk of early Jan (absent a transient cool shot this weekend, though even that is rolling in warmer). Also of note...So Cal likely to finally get soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What did the CFS show today? If it were good, someone would have posted it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 That mid-month period looks like it's got the best potential (to me, anyway) right now, should this block be believed on modeling. Meanwhile, the undercut out west continues to support the idea of largely above normal temperatures locally for a good chunk of early Jan (absent a transient cool shot this weekend, though even that is rolling in warmer). Also of note...So Cal likely to finally get soaked. A lot of the "cold air" early on is used/stale cold air, but at least we are seeing the pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Pos 2M gets achieved partly due to the higher low temps ,You will not feel warm during the day in early Jan . Week 1 most of us are in the 30`s all day and peak around 40 . Transient warm up- then the dam breaks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 A lot of the "cold air" early on is used/stale cold air, but at least we are seeing the pattern flip. Correct, in the mid-range. But I've been preaching patience on the early Jan portion of this (first 10 days), and still think that holds. Best colder opportunities (on a normal, more sustained basis) right now are later on...mid-month or later. The consensus on this block is clear and it should deliver a legitimate colder period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 There was a post about a week back where a certain poster said the the pattern looked terrible after the 10th ITS GONE/ERASED . It was by someone who has posted here for a long time . Imagine opining such terrible analysis but then to go back and erase your post. WOW what an image conscious weakling . Beware , I REMEMBER ALL . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 There was a post about a week back where a certain poster said the the pattern looked terrible after the 10th ITS GONE/ERASED . It was by someone who has posted here for a long time . Imagine opining such terrible analysis but then to go back and erase your post. WOW what an image conscious weakling . Beware , I REMEMBER ALL . he's nowhere to be seen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Gfs and euro have 50s next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Gfs has 50s next week it also gave me 4-6 inches of snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 And we're back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I read somewhere it's going to be +72 at the North Pole. Wtf that's complete insanity. But as last winter everyone else's pain can be our gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Euro Ensemble with an...interesting...run. Kicks out the main piece of the PV and shoots it over to Europe. East torches late next week with significant undercutting out west. Most of the east is well above normal with not much cold air available at the surface. Fun times ahead. I still don't like early Jan outside of a transient cool shot. Blocking definitely in play, likely goes colder mid-month. But this introduces some cold air supply questions here. Trend to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 And we're back. Must of been server problems I guess. Thank god it didn't happen with a storm bearing down on us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Was suffering withdrawal symptoms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Was suffering withdrawal symptoms... Had to go on accuweather for my fix. Ick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I read somewhere it's going to be +72 at the North Pole. Wtf that's complete insanity. But as last winter everyone else's pain can be our gain https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/28/freak-storm-in-north-atlantic-may-push-temperatures-70-degrees-above-normal-at-north-pole/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Had to go on accuweather for my fix. Ick I'd rather poke my eye out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Im enjoying that someones arrogance is being challenged in the January thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Man, impressive warm changes in the 11-15 day on the Euro Ens. Lots of model volatility over the past 24 hours. Still has a cold look day 15, but much warmer out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Man, impressive warm changes in the 11-15 day on the Euro Ens. Lots of model volatility over the past 24 hours. Still has a cold look day 15, but much warmer out ahead of it. That's why January is far from certain and still likely to end up above normal by 1-3 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Advice. Get Drunk in two days and do not wake up till April 01. It will still be above normal, but you will be able to shake the hangover at the beach. CPC has no pattern change till November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Advice. Get Drunk in two days and do not wake up till April 01. It will still be above normal, but you will be able to shake the hangover at the beach. CPC has no pattern change till November. Then I must trust a 348hr GEFS anomaly map??? didn't see that post get knocked up!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Advice. Get Drunk in two days and do not wake up till April 01. It will still be above normal, but you will be able to shake the hangover at the beach. CPC has no pattern change till November. So winter cancel based off cpc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Wow... Natural gas is up 35% from these pattern change calls. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Wow... Natural gas is up 35% from these pattern change calls. Sent from my SM-G925V Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 WowWSI probably had a little to do with it... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Man, impressive warm changes in the 11-15 day on the Euro Ens. Lots of model volatility over the past 24 hours. Still has a cold look day 15, but much warmer out ahead of it. Day 1 - 6 are N to BN and 7- 11 are A (it is transient ) . Do you want to venture as to why day 12 has a plus 1 anomaly at 5000 feet ( -5 is the actual temp ) and why would that mean BN if the ensembles are right ? The Euro thinks there`s a SNOWSTORM going off on the EC day 12- 13 . Its not warm under sunny skies and bare grounds , the ensembles lower pressure up and down the coast . So - 5 @ 850 is not close to AN . So it prob snows and then the Vortex collapses in . The warmth is transient 5 days in the heart of this pattern change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Up to now, how well have any available models been in terms of accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I'd tread very carefully when looking at the 11-15 day ensembles. We're heading into a pattern with many anomalous height rises and falls which means predictability will inevitably fall. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 It's almost like the 18Z GFS is scared of PB GFI, holy cow does it get cold post day 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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