SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Anything before mid Jan is transitional stuff, which means there will be mild air, transient cold, and even a cutter. Don S. and Earthlight have written this up perfectly. Warmies will love to rub the weenies noses in it during this phase only to come out looking dumbfounded once we roll to say Jan 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Anything before mid Jan is transitional stuff, which means there will be mild air, transient cold, and even a cutter. Don S. and Earthlight have written this up perfectly. Warmies will love to rub the weenies noses in it during this phase only to come out looking dumbfounded once we roll to say Jan 10-15. I agree. I think we are kind of sitting on the edge of a cliff in a good way. I think like last year it's going to be boom game on. Not in the exact same way but good things are coming. It was all about shaking up the PV and get the Ao to drop. If that didn't happen we would be screwed and looking at another 11/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's almost like the 18Z GFS is scared of PB GFI, holy cow does it get cold post day 11 How so? Do tell please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Also, can someone point me to a website where I can view models and learn from them? Send me a pm if you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Also, can someone point me to a website where I can view models and learn from them? Send me a pm if you do! Tropicaltidbits.com http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Tropicaltidbits.comhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/thought I heard that one recently,I used that a lot with hurricane. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Also, can someone point me to a website where I can view models and learn from them? Send me a pm if you do! Learning how to read a 500H map is the first step to understanding more about this stuff - I did it by using the sites below and also just learning from the knowledgeable people here (and I'm still learning!) This is a really good intro to weather forecasting, reading weather model maps, etc: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/ I've spent a lot of time reading through various topics on that. I referred to this when I was trying to figure out what to look for on the models to tell if we have a -AO/-NAO: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html The best site for free data is probably tropicaltidbits.com or instantweathermaps.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 How so? Do tell please.I'm not sure I understand the question, it's really cold (taken verbatim it's probably single digits at night for the City) but it wasn't intended as a forecast, just that models did show a significant cooldown in that period (but of course you have to look at more than a 15 day depiction to get a picture, so all standard caveats apply) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Any cold the next four weeks looks transient. Maybe late in the month we could see something a little more favorable but even then the eastern trough looks a little too far East on the ensembles. Much of the cold is pacific origin rather than Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Any cold the next four weeks looks transient. Maybe late in the month we could see something a little more favorable but even then the eastern trough looks a little too far East on the ensembles. Much of the cold is pacific origin rather than Arctic. Again your analysis is false. The ensembles have a -epo -AO +PNA. After thr first week of January that's cross polar flow, not a pacific originated airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You guys need to get a grip, the pattern is definitely changing but you are well overstating what the potential looks like. There is no real -nao, the western ridge is shallow and at best we are talking about a transient N to slightly BN temp regime fore less than a week . The pacific is dominating unless you think that hot bathtub out there is going away soon. 1983/1998, hope for a rabbit out of a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You guys need to get a grip, the pattern is definitely changing but you are well overstating what the potential looks like. There is no real -nao, the western ridge is shallow and at best we are talking about a transient N to slightly BN temp regime fore less than a week . The pacific is dominating unless you think that hot bathtub out there is going away soon. 1983/1998, hope for a rabbit out of a hat. ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Learning how to read a 500H map is the first step to understanding more about this stuff - I did it by using the sites below and also just learning from the knowledgeable people here (and I'm still learning!) This is a really good intro to weather forecasting, reading weather model maps, etc: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/ I've spent a lot of time reading through various topics on that. I referred to this when I was trying to figure out what to look for on the models to tell if we have a -AO/-NAO: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html The best site for free data is probably tropicaltidbits.com or instantweathermaps.com Thanks for the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Learning how to read a 500H map is the first step to understanding more about this stuff - I did it by using the sites below and also just learning from the knowledgeable people here (and I'm still learning!) This is a really good intro to weather forecasting, reading weather model maps, etc: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/ I've spent a lot of time reading through various topics on that. I referred to this when I was trying to figure out what to look for on the models to tell if we have a -AO/-NAO: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html The best site for free data is probably tropicaltidbits.com or instantweathermaps.com Oh yes,thank you so much for info! I've followed weather forever have books etc. Just need more time to look at data to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You guys need to get a grip, the pattern is definitely changing but you are well overstating what the potential looks like. There is no real -nao, the western ridge is shallow and at best we are talking about a transient N to slightly BN temp regime fore less than a week . The pacific is dominating unless you think that hot bathtub out there is going away soon. 1983/1998, hope for a rabbit out of a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Day 1 - 6 are N to BN and 7- 11 are A (it is transient ) . Do you want to venture as to why day 12 has a plus 1 anomaly at 5000 feet ( -5 is the actual temp ) and why would that mean BN if the ensembles are right ? The Euro thinks there`s a SNOWSTORM going off on the EC day 12- 13 . Its not warm under sunny skies and bare grounds , the ensembles lower pressure up and down the coast . So - 5 @ 850 is not close to AN . So it prob snows and then the Vortex collapses in . The warmth is transient 5 days in the heart of this pattern change . You can say you don't believe the model, but this analysis of what the European ensemble is legitimately showing is flat out wrong. The model has a grand total of two days below normal at the surface for the 15 day composite. One of which is next Monday. Despite the presence of a storm on the model, it likely wouldn't be snow at the coast especially with minimal high pressure available in eastern Canada and a marginal airmass overall. But I'm not playing that rain/snow game at day 13 anyway. Believe what you want, continue to ignore the major undercutting going on in the west. But that was not a cold run for the first 12 days of the month. Your call was normal for the first 6 days and +2 for Jan 7-12. Let's see how it looks after then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You guys need to get a grip, the pattern is definitely changing but you are well overstating what the potential looks like. There is no real -nao, the western ridge is shallow and at best we are talking about a transient N to slightly BN temp regime fore less than a week . The pacific is dominating unless you think that hot bathtub out there is going away soon. 1983/1998, hope for a rabbit out of a hat. That's just for the first week of January - after the 8th the teleconnections all point to a favorable pattern for sustained cold possible cross polar flow also including an active southern jet stream which also favors an increased chance of winter type storms along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Wow...Natural gas is up 35% from these pattern change calls.Sent from my SM-G925V I sent that Bastardi tweet to my traders and it elicited audible laughter. Colder look late is helping, but JB needs to stick to calling the weather and avoid natty fundamentals. Long story short, it's more than just the weather that moved the gas markets. Especially this late in the year. Any trader would've been stopped our long ago listening to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Video by Joe Bastardihttp://www.wsj.com/video/extreme-weather-forecast-for-2016/9F232FDD-B94D-4345-9053-C2A44E3D794B.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You can say you don't believe the model, but this analysis of what the European ensemble is legitimately showing is flat out wrong. The model has a grand total of two days below normal at the surface for the 15 day composite. One of which is next Monday. Despite the presence of a storm on the model, it likely wouldn't be snow at the coast especially with minimal high pressure available in eastern Canada and a marginal airmass overall. But I'm not playing that rain/snow game at day 13 anyway. Believe what you want, continue to ignore the major undercutting going on in the west. But that was not a cold run for the first 12 days of the month. Your call was normal for the first 6 days and +2 for Jan 7-12. Let's see how it looks after then My call has always been Jan 1 thru 6 is N to plus 2 which is beyond a pattern change . The only way you even get AN during those first 5 days is because your low Temps are closer to 32 not 28 . Check the maxes. But I agree it all counts. That's your anomaly. I see the 4 day period of plus 5 .But it's transient. That ridge is in and out. I said this pattern would flip from 2 weeks ago you said the pattern looks bad after the 10th. At day 12 and 13 that Minus 5 at 850 w LP off the EC you can't only buy the ensemble 850 anomalies but ignore the lowering of pressure off the EC. HP is coming through the lakes -5 at 850 is - 5 at 850. So either you believe the height falls and the 850 anomalies or you don't believe either But you can't pick and chose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I sent that Bastardi tweet to my traders and it elicited audible laughter. Colder look late is helping, but JB needs to stick to calling the weather and avoid natty fundamentals. Long story short, it's more than just the weather that moved the gas markets. Especially this late in the year. Any trader would've been stopped our long ago listening to him. I bought 2500 UNG Feb 8 calls Sold 2500 Jan 7.5 puts on Wed. Paid .57 Took 1k lot off today at 1.08 still long 1500 risk reversals. I will sell the balance when UNG runs through 10 which happens before Feb expry PS. We know the product , I hope you didn't tweet him something aggressive he tripled his money In 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Seriously though, the Sixers are a complete embarassment of a franchise. Have they won 10 games in the past two years? I think they have only won one this year. Appalling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Today's CFS anyone? Seems like it took a step back. From the little I was able to discern. It's best though if we can compare to the ones that were posted here. I'm referring to the map type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 For all the Johnny come lately s and missed what was opined . Back on Dec 18 in the middle of the torch , the call of a pattern flip TO NORMAL for the 1st week of Jan was made. I don't edit my posts , anyone is welcome to go back and look , I opine so often that if anyone wants to look they are easy to find. Over the following week we kept hearing how that wasn't the case And how the EC would be flooded w mild air. Well now the guidance is showing the first 6 days should Finnish close to plus 2 . From 2 weeks away I think that's a spot on call. The next 5 day period may finish plus 5 and not the 2 I expected but look what follows , that ridge is transient . It doesn't lock off , what follows is LP off the EC with the vortex on its heels. The call is for a N Jan . That too can be found. The idea that the air mass is marginal doesn't tell the entire story on Day 13 thru 15 that air is direct arctic air , so it collapses due S. That low level cold air is solidly BN . When you see as a plus 1 SD I'm Manitoba its still BN at KNYC . The pattern at 500 completely flips over the CONUS from Dec once into early JAN . The first 6 days are plus 2 at best when your max is 40. It will feel cold. That ridge is in and out. Then you may lock in , so says the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 0z GFS is way different than the 18z run. It's more active and a lot colder. It has 2 snowstorms chances ( Jan 10-11 and Jan 13-14 ). Expect more changes ahead with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Video by Joe Bastardi http://www.wsj.com/video/extreme-weather-forecast-for-2016/9F232FDD-B94D-4345-9053-C2A44E3D794B.html Joe Bastardi has painted himself into a corner big time with his winter forecast over the past few days. If it doesn't workout, he will look like a total fool and credibility goes to zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 For all the Johnny come lately s and missed what was opined . Back on Dec 18 in the middle of the torch , the call of a pattern flip TO NORMAL for the 1st week of Jan was made. I don't edit my posts , anyone is welcome to go back and look , I opine so often that if anyone wants to look they are easy to find. Over the following week we kept hearing how that wasn't the case And how the EC would be flooded w mild air. Well now the guidance is showing the first 6 days should Finnish close to plus 2 . From 2 weeks away I think that's a spot on call. The next 5 day period may finish plus 5 and not the 2 I expected but look what follows , that ridge is transient . It doesn't lock off , what follows is LP off the EC with the vortex on its heels. The call is for a N Jan . That too can be found. The idea that the air mass is marginal doesn't tell the entire story on Day 13 thru 15 that air is direct arctic air , so it collapses due S. That low level cold air is solidly BN . When you see as a plus 1 SD I'm Manitoba its still BN at KNYC . The pattern at 500 completely flips over the CONUS from Dec once into early JAN . The first 6 days are plus 2 at best when your max is 40. It will feel cold. That ridge is in and out. Then you may lock in , so says the weeklies. It will be interesting to see if the mid-Jan cold shot is transient or not. That day 8-13 range looks to be well AN and a return to the cold west/NW and warm east that's dominated since Nov. It's hard to argue that persistence and even with the artic completely reshuffled we are going to have a sold week of AN in the east and BN in the west. I personally think it's transient and we don't see a flip to sustained cold until end of Jan. I am even starting to doubt that. One thing we do know is that this isn't a 58 repeat. I hope I am wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It will be interesting to see if the mid-Jan cold shot is transient or not. That day 8-13 range looks to be well AN and a return to the cold west/NW and warm east that's dominated since Nov. It's hard to argue that persistence and even with the artic completely reshuffled we are going to have a sold week of AN in the east and BN in the west. I personally think it's transient and we don't see a flip to sustained cold until end of Jan. I am even starting to doubt that. One thing we do know is that this isn't a 58 repeat. I hope I am wrong though... I was fine with this until you said this isn't a 58 repeat. In terms of 2m temps I guess. But there is no better analog looking both at El Nino and the progression SSW and effects on the PV in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Joe Bastardi has painted himself into a corner big time with his winter forecast over the past few days. If it doesn't workout, he will look like a total fool and credibility goes to zero everyone said that when he blew 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 and it hasn't hurt him in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This guy is from Long Beach, NY...I never saw any waves like this at Lincoln Blvd surfing beach before.. http://www.theinertia.com/surf/holy-sht-did-will-skudin-just-paddle-into-the-biggest-wave-ever-at-nazare-and-survive-the-heaviest-wipeout-to-boot/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxt_ObWPVWU#t=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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