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Met Winter Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

You obviously think that means cold and snow but do you actually know what the significance of that really is? What does it mean? Like can you explain what it may/may not do? Or is that just a parrot?

Ridging in the west and a better pattern for the area. I dont get your post. Keep on forecasting warmth.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted 
the ao this year is on par with 2006...1997 10  6  0.1341997 10  7 -0.1151997 10  8 -0.5071997 10  9 -0.3981997 10 10 -0.1001997 10 11 -0.6541997 10 12 -1.3931997 10 13 -1.7911997 10 14 -1.5651997 10 15 -1.1951997 10 16 -0.4131997 10 17 -0.2931997 10 18 -0.4701997 10 19 -1.1091997 10 20 -1.6191997 10 21 -1.7491997 10 22 -1.6891997 10 23 -1.7201997 10 24 -1.8621997 10 25 -1.9921997 10 26 -2.1091997 10 27 -1.6121997 10 28 -0.8421997 10 29 -0.2811997 10 30  0.7241997 10 31  1.5191997 11  1  0.7181997 11  2 -0.7971997 11  3 -0.9831997 11  4 -0.1081997 11  5  1.0521997 11  6  1.0231997 11  7  0.4421997 11  8 -0.5501997 11  9 -1.2411997 11 10 -1.4341997 11 11 -1.3381997 11 12 -0.9681997 11 13 -0.2911997 11 14  0.0491997 11 15 -0.2091997 11 16 -0.1831997 11 17  0.3371997 11 18  0.8631997 11 19  0.7541997 11 20  0.0651997 11 21 -0.5201997 11 22 -0.9651997 11 23 -1.3141997 11 24 -1.6691997 11 25 -2.1851997 11 26 -1.9321997 11 27 -1.3691997 11 28 -1.5221997 11 29 -2.1321997 11 30 -2.7231997 12  1 -2.6031997 12  2 -2.2351997 12  3 -2.0151997 12  4 -1.1991997 12  5 -0.2641997 12  6  0.0511997 12  7  0.6431997 12  8  1.1311997 12  9  1.0441997 12 10  0.6771997 12 11  0.4381997 12 12 -0.1251997 12 13 -0.8361997 12 14 -1.0601997 12 15 -0.8101997 12 16 -0.6081997 12 17 -1.2291997 12 18 -1.5341997 12 19 -0.7181997 12 20 -0.1861997 12 21 -0.3241997 12 22  0.0831997 12 23  0.7801997 12 24  1.3601997 12 25  1.7161997 12 26  1.3461997 12 27  0.6911997 12 28  0.6351997 12 29  1.0041997 12 30  1.1421997 12 31  0.8781998  1  1  1.9161998  1  2  1.7141998  1  3  1.1991998  1  4  0.3381998  1  5 -0.4721998  1  6 -1.2801998  1  7 -1.8771998  1  8 -3.0071998  1  9 -3.9871998  1 10 -4.2691998  1 11 -3.9641998  1 12 -3.5571998  1 13 -3.2971998  1 14 -3.0231998  1 15 -2.5921998  1 16 -2.1671998  1 17 -2.1581998  1 18 -2.2111998  1 19 -2.3871998  1 20 -2.6571998  1 21 -3.0091998  1 22 -3.1501998  1 23 -2.9131998  1 24 -2.2691998  1 25 -2.0201998  1 26 -1.6911998  1 27 -1.0501998  1 28 -1.3311998  1 29 -1.8791998  1 30 -2.4291998  1 31 -2.7261998  2  1 -2.4791998  2  2 -2.0851998  2  3 -2.1991998  2  4 -2.0451998  2  5 -1.4421998  2  6 -1.3041998  2  7 -0.9401998  2  8 -0.3681998  2  9  0.1301998  2 10 -0.0611998  2 11 -0.5161998  2 12 -0.8361998  2 13 -1.0601998  2 14 -0.6281998  2 15 -0.1821998  2 16  0.1891998  2 17  0.1841998  2 18  0.0311998  2 19 -0.0781998  2 20  0.4291998  2 21  1.4771998  2 22  1.7501998  2 23  1.6641998  2 24  1.5081998  2 25  1.8231998  2 26  1.8891998  2 27  0.5921998  2 28 -0.3931998  3  1 -0.6941998  3  2 -0.6961998  3  3 -0.6771998  3  4 -0.8151998  3  5 -0.5931998  3  6 -0.3951998  3  7 -0.6141998  3  8 -1.1521998  3  9 -1.8541998  3 10 -1.6181998  3 11 -1.1591998  3 12 -1.3061998  3 13 -0.8211998  3 14 -0.0341998  3 15  0.4851998  3 16  0.4301998  3 17 -0.1211998  3 18 -0.6401998  3 19 -0.4861998  3 20 -0.3301998  3 21 -0.4951998  3 22 -0.5701998  3 23 -0.5011998  3 24 -0.3251998  3 25  1.0471998  3 26  2.1441998  3 27  1.9711998  3 28  0.9331998  3 29  0.4121998  3 30  0.4171998  3 31  0.4501998  4  1  0.750

..............................................................

2006 10  6  0.1242006 10  7 -0.2862006 10  8 -0.7472006 10  9 -1.1042006 10 10 -1.5232006 10 11 -1.2882006 10 12 -0.7152006 10 13 -0.7132006 10 14 -1.2252006 10 15 -2.4162006 10 16 -2.9762006 10 17 -3.1922006 10 18 -2.9812006 10 19 -2.6302006 10 20 -2.1792006 10 21 -1.9102006 10 22 -1.4262006 10 23 -0.8542006 10 24 -0.6022006 10 25 -0.7142006 10 26  0.0112006 10 27  0.8062006 10 28  0.8042006 10 29 -0.3092006 10 30 -1.0632006 10 31 -1.5402006 11  1 -1.4872006 11  2 -1.1672006 11  3 -0.6362006 11  4  0.4332006 11  5  1.0092006 11  6  1.2052006 11  7  1.8572006 11  8  2.4122006 11  9  2.1252006 11 10  1.9302006 11 11  2.0652006 11 12  2.1132006 11 13  1.4652006 11 14  0.0622006 11 15 -0.9682006 11 16 -0.8172006 11 17 -0.4222006 11 18  0.1682006 11 19  0.7172006 11 20  0.6012006 11 21  0.4872006 11 22  0.2302006 11 23 -0.3692006 11 24 -0.9392006 11 25 -0.5092006 11 26  0.4732006 11 27  0.7712006 11 28  0.6842006 11 29  0.4922006 11 30  1.0942006 12  1  1.8992006 12  2  1.9942006 12  3  1.8712006 12  4  1.8132006 12  5  1.2842006 12  6  1.1822006 12  7  1.3372006 12  8  1.3422006 12  9  1.9722006 12 10  3.5752006 12 11  3.8902006 12 12  3.5382006 12 13  3.4972006 12 14  3.5552006 12 15  3.1592006 12 16  2.5322006 12 17  1.7542006 12 18  1.8332006 12 19  2.0562006 12 20  2.1832006 12 21  2.6282006 12 22  2.1572006 12 23  1.4082006 12 24  0.8892006 12 25  0.8192006 12 26  1.2282006 12 27  1.4462006 12 28  1.5322006 12 29  2.4202006 12 30  3.6402006 12 31  3.7792007  1  1  3.8272007  1  2  3.5902007  1  3  3.8262007  1  4  3.8902007  1  5  3.9902007  1  6  3.9752007  1  7  3.8542007  1  8  3.2842007  1  9  2.6052007  1 10  3.2002007  1 11  3.4202007  1 12  3.1442007  1 13  2.7622007  1 14  2.6092007  1 15  2.1482007  1 16  1.6862007  1 17  1.7442007  1 18  2.4682007  1 19  2.2972007  1 20  1.2972007  1 21 -0.1732007  1 22 -0.4322007  1 23 -0.0232007  1 24 -0.3972007  1 25 -0.1002007  1 26 -0.0632007  1 27  0.2752007  1 28  0.5402007  1 29  0.3042007  1 30  0.5872007  1 31  0.6702007  2  1 -0.1062007  2  2 -0.6032007  2  3 -1.6212007  2  4 -2.1842007  2  5 -1.8352007  2  6 -1.6802007  2  7 -1.7232007  2  8 -1.9512007  2  9 -1.8672007  2 10 -1.6292007  2 11 -1.5292007  2 12 -1.6092007  2 13 -1.9072007  2 14 -1.6512007  2 15 -1.2322007  2 16 -1.0352007  2 17 -1.2032007  2 18 -0.5292007  2 19 -0.5882007  2 20 -1.4472007  2 21 -1.7402007  2 22 -2.1002007  2 23 -1.9422007  2 24 -1.2332007  2 25 -0.7222007  2 26 -0.3132007  2 27  0.2982007  2 28  0.3862007  3  1  0.1102007  3  2  0.2142007  3  3  0.5972007  3  4  0.1432007  3  5  0.0092007  3  6  0.2212007  3  7  0.1312007  3  8  0.5142007  3  9  0.9492007  3 10  1.6492007  3 11  2.3362007  3 12  2.0812007  3 13  1.9922007  3 14  1.9122007  3 15  1.6612007  3 16  1.9372007  3 17  2.3532007  3 18  1.6962007  3 19  0.6402007  3 20  1.2972007  3 21  1.7222007  3 22  1.4322007  3 23  0.8122007  3 24  1.0842007  3 25  1.7022007  3 26  1.6892007  3 27  1.3222007  3 28  1.0812007  3 29  0.8492007  3 30  0.9592007  3 31  0.578
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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

GFS has really cold air coming into the country in the long range. Dare I say the PV splits on the model. Love the ridging showing up. Still a long way to go but the signs are there.

Someone said Scandinavian ridge? That's me! I'm Scandinavian lol.

And next December looks like could be good:)based on forecast

What's up my fellow met fan :hug:

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

GFS has really cold air coming into the country in the long range. Dare I say the PV splits on the model. Love the ridging showing up. Still a long way to go but the signs are there.

What's up my fellow met fan :hug:

 

The 10mb PV on the GEFS is taking a hit. Look at day 8+ on tropicaltidbits. Not sure if its a product of an ensemble mean smoothing the solution or not, but it doesn't look like it. We need more, but its a start. It's something that started showing up at day 10+ but its not being pushed back. Hopefully, its legit, and continues as well.

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

The only cold days of the next 30 on the CFS are Jan. 13-17.   This teleconnects nicely to a less 'negative' period in Seattle, where the next 60 days are all showing below normal with  virtually no ensemble members showing up above the normal line throughout.   Sounds final to me, unless a fantastic SSWE occurs which the analog can not take into consideration till/if it happens.  Then it will look and find winters that changed completely mid-stream.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

The only cold days of the next 30 on the CFS are Jan. 13-17. This teleconnects nicely to a less 'negative' period in Seattle, where the next 60 days are all showing below normal with virtually no ensemble members showing up above the normal line throughout. Sounds final to me, unless a fantastic SSWE occurs which the analog can not take into consideration till/if it happens. Then it will look and find winters that changed completely mid-stream.

Okay winter cancel

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Okay winter cancel

Can't have a big winter every year and we are due for a mild one, and in my personal experience when Dec comes in like this you can usually store the snow blower. While this run of warm weather is unprecedented, mild winters are not, and I have seen many. I did not use the snowblower from 1997-dec 2000, which was the first serious snowfall in 5 years. At some point we are going to stop seeing snowy winters in these parts if scientists are correct.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Can't have a big winter every year and we are due for a mild one, and in my personal experience when Dec comes in like this you can usually store the snow blower. While this run of warm weather is unprecedented, mild winters are not, and I have seen many. I did not use the snowblower from 1997-dec 2000, which was the first serious snowfall in 5 years. At some point we are going to stop seeing snowy winters in these parts if scientists are correct.

Im joking with that post.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Im joking with that post.

I know, I'm just thinking out loud, so to speak. I have kinda written this winter off. Anything can happen, but stats being what they are, things don't look good for snow weenies this year. But 2006 did feature one good storm ( it was not that impressive out my way ) and so did 95 ( which was also meh out my way, I tend to see less snow than others in my area for some reason )

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

Yes should be seeing the end to the nasty +15-30 garbage very soon. Gradual step downs closer to normal and I still fully believe the region ends with at least normal snowfall for the winter.

I don't think the city or coastal regions will this year, based on my experiences over the years, but I would be a fool to bet the farm on it. Mother nature is too unpredictable for that.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Gfs splits the pv . Pattern looks much better moving into january.

If you mean better in terms of absurd positive departures then yes. If you're hoping for BN temps and snow then definitely not.

At least not for 3/4 of January. Activity levels will continue to increase as evidenced by the coming week, but expect to keep increasing as the subtropical jet grows more intense.

January tends to be quiet, storm wise, due to a lack of temp gradients but that won't be the case this season.

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