BristowWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 It's a miller B in almost the purest sense. its actually in a good spot for both of us...you much better of course and we both have to worry about 2M temps...if the primary goes north of KY I am toast...not that I think it will happen like this but again better than seeing +25 departures and south winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 actually feels wintry out there today with overcast skies, a breeze and 42 degrees instead of the usual sunny and 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Lol that's cute, gfs trying to throw in a LR snowstorm in a very unfavorable pattern. Well at least it finally shows us a good fantasy storm. I expect the 12z gfs to show the complete opposite though, no surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Lol that's cute, gfs trying to throw in a LR snowstorm in a very unfavorable pattern. Well at least it finally shows us a good fantasy storm. I expect the 12z gfs to show the complete opposite though, no surprise there. The models are showing a temporary -NAO in that timeframe which could yield something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 GFS at 240 has a -EPO,- east based NAO and +PNA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Lol that's cute, gfs trying to throw in a LR snowstorm in a very unfavorable pattern. Well at least it finally shows us a good fantasy storm. I expect the 12z gfs to show the complete opposite though, no surprise there. Well it's over 300 hours away. This run takes the low ots with another low going towards the lakes. Really cold air comes in behind it with the PV coming into the US. Good changes are coming . I am loving that the models are now showing a -NAO moving forward into later December with blocking towards Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Well it's over 300 hours away. This run takes the low ots with another low going towards the lakes. Really cold air comes in behind it with the PV coming into the US. Good changes are coming . I am loving that the models are now showing a -NAO moving forward into later December with blocking towards Greenland. How many times are you going to get burned by believing the 300+ hour op GFS this winter? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 he hasn't learned anything in 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 How many times are you going to get burned by believing the 300+ hour op GFS this winter? Lol Every model has temporary -NAO. The period after the 18th should be watched. he hasn't learned anything in 10 years Keep on forecasting warmth. The week of Christmas looks favorable. I will leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 I'm leery of the gfs but hopefully it and other models continue showing the changes even though it's most likely transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I'm on board for a snowless or mostly snowless December. I could see a major storm or two around the 21st but I think they are more wet than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 he hasn't learned anything in 10 years Umm he said that models are starting to show a -NAO in the long range which is true..That is a change in the pattern..it won't be as warm the second half of the month..might have to deal with cutters,but it will be cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 How many times are you going to get burned by believing the 300+ hour op GFS this winter? Lol At no time this fall or winter has the long range GFS or Euro showed a possible -NAO, which it is showing now..Again it might not happen, but that's what it's showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 GFS at 240 has a -EPO,- east based NAO and +PNA lol Doesn't it always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Doesn't it always? Not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Granted, it's wise not to lose perspective, but I think that, deep down inside, many of us are happy to at least have some model porn to look at (even if none of what's shown ever pans out). I agree that I won't really get my hopes up, barring some true consistency. I think the real change comes mid-Jan. I'll consider anything prior to that a bonus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 It's silly that anyone would take post 300hr model runs seriously. There maybe some changes by Xmas compared to now but AN is still the answer. It'll take several weeks before we see anything else. If the pattern doesn't change, then why would you expect anything different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 GFS 18z shows a swfl system that could produce at least our first flakes at hour 240 or so. At least the pattern looks to be changing around the 20th or so, can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 GFS 18z shows a swfl system that could produce at least our first flakes at hour 240 or so. At least the pattern looks to be changing around the 20th or so, can't wait!Lock it up Buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 GFS 18z shows a swfl system that could produce at least our first flakes at hour 240 or so. At least the pattern looks to be changing around the 20th or so, can't wait! Same storm that the euro and ggem shows. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 6 days ago the gfs and euro showed this puny offshore system as a significant nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 the gfs held onto it for several more days than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The upcoming pattern is cutter city. Maybe we get lucky with some well timed colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The upcoming pattern is cutter city. Maybe we get lucky with some well timed colder air.mDoubt it. Maybe the well Nw burbs will see their first accumulations before going to rain. I'm not optimistic until we see the pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Models and the members are snow happy. 06Z trumpets a Miller B which becomes a GLC on the 12Z and now I can't find it at all. Only northern Minn. keeps good snows on all the runs. The obstetrician says this baby will be a late one and delivered by Miller B Sect. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Not sure I am looking at the same models as y'all. Today was a banner day as we now have the Euro/EPS, CMC, CMC Ens, GFS and GEFS all clearly relaxing the crappy pattern by as early as the middle of next week. The Euro and CMC show a snow storm around d10 and the 18z GFS (with GEFS support) and EPS show a mother of god worthy pattern in the LR after the a GFS near miss on d10 that gives DC accumulating snow. The worst of it will be Sunday and Monday, then we begin Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Not sure I am looking at the same models as y'all. Today was a banner day as we now have the Euro/EPS, CMC, CMC Ens, GFS and GEFS all clearly relaxing the crappy pattern by as early as the middle of next week. The Euro and CMC show a snow storm around d10 and the 18z GFS (with GEFS support) and EPS show a mother of god worthy pattern in the LR after the a GFS near miss on d10 that gives DC accumulating snow. The worst of it will be Sunday and Monday, then we begin Winter. What do you call someone that is invited into a community then use all that information against them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Not sure I am looking at the same models as y'all. Today was a banner day as we now have the Euro/EPS, CMC, CMC Ens, GFS and GEFS all clearly relaxing the crappy pattern by as early as the middle of next week. The Euro and CMC show a snow storm around d10 and the 18z GFS (with GEFS support) and EPS show a mother of god worthy pattern in the LR after the a GFS near miss on d10 that gives DC accumulating snow. The worst of it will be Sunday and Monday, then we begin Winter. Did you say y'all? We don't even say that here. Youse guys gotta love the idea of some ridging in Greenland. It's ok I'm from Toms River...just transplanted to NoVa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Did you say y'all? We don't even say that here. Youse guys gotta love the idea of some ridging in Greenland. It's ok I'm from Toms River...just transplanted to NoVa They still say "y'all" in parts of NoVA, just depends where. Travel down 95 or west on 66 for a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Not sure I am looking at the same models as y'all. Today was a banner day as we now have the Euro/EPS, CMC, CMC Ens, GFS and GEFS all clearly relaxing the crappy pattern by as early as the middle of next week. The Euro and CMC show a snow storm around d10 and the 18z GFS (with GEFS support) and EPS show a mother of god worthy pattern in the LR after the a GFS near miss on d10 that gives DC accumulating snow. The worst of it will be Sunday and Monday, then we begin Winter. Alot of warm weenies on here. I have no clue how people can not see how the pattern moving forward is a much better one than now with some snow chances. Even in the sne thread they arent talking about anything except warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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