mob1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 transient cold/dry spell followed by a familiar pattern 15 days away... The cold next week looks more than merely transient. Not to say it won't happen, but the same models that rush the pattern change will tend to break it down too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 that pattern has support from the eps and weeklies and the signal has grown since yesterday. also going to be tough to break up the PV and get sustained blocking with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 15 days away... The cold next week looks more than merely transient. Not to say it won't happen, but the same models that rush the pattern change will tend to break it down too quickly. unless the end of the month is a big torch, the change from December will be incredible +13 to -1 give or take-that's a 14 degree swing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That pattern would be an ice box compared to what December was and would be easily possible to get a snow event out of. I think I said this a few weeks ago, the pattern late on the GEFS/EPS looks more or less Jan-Mar 2005 like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Big deal, we warm up for a bit. February will rock like last year and the year before and the year before...trend anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That pattern would be an ice box compared to what December was and would be easily possible to get a snow event out of. I never get why people want frigid cold as if we need teens to get snow. Seasonal temps would do the trick most likely as long as the track is favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 that assumes the GFS is correct in the longer term...cough cough The European Ensemble has a very similar look, albeit with slightly higher heights in the Greenland region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I never get why people want frigid cold as if we need teens to get snow. Seasonal temps would do the trick most likely as long as the track is favorable you are right-some of our best storms have come with temps in the mid 20's to low 30's. Teens generally bring cold and static cling dry. We did get lucky with a few storms with snow in the single digits and teens in the past few years, but that is rare around here. Would be funny to see us get skunked next week, but then get a storm or 2 during the "warmup" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That pattern would be an ice box compared to what December was and would be easily possible to get a snow event out of. I think I said this a few weeks ago, the pattern late on the GEFS/EPS looks more or less Jan-Mar 2005 like to me. Refresh my memory about 2005, for I was 17 then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Depending on the storm, temperatures, it all boils down to wind.... If that's going be cold temps and lots of wind, I hate fluffy snows... Blows away or brings huge drifts out here. A slightly wet/heavier snow covers everything nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Refresh my memory about 2005, for I was 17 then lol good pattern from what I remember. Big storm in Late January with very cold air, (Super clipper with redevelopment) Feb was warmer and dry, March had a few good storms one where the temps crashed from 50's to the teens with a true flash freeze and a few inches of snow to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The European Ensemble has a very similar look, albeit with slightly higher heights in the Greenland region. D 15 DOES thought that was a 5 day mean . Absent is the trough in the SE seen on the EPS . So looks transient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 you are right-some of our best storms have come with temps in the mid 20's to low 30's. Teens generally bring cold and static cling dry. We did get lucky with a few storms with snow in the single digits and teens in the past few years, but that is rare around here. Would be funny to see us get skunked next week, but then get a storm or 2 during the "warmup" Even last Feb as cold as it was we had trouble remaining all snow with most of the events, Almost all started as snow and changed over to rain or sleet as some point so its not always advantageous to have frigid temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 good pattern from what I remember. Big storm in Late January with very cold air, (Super clipper with redevelopment) Feb was warmer and dry, March had a few good storms one where the temps crashed from 50's to the teens with a true flash freeze and a few inches of snow to boot. Feb had 2 good back to back storms that year. Actually 3 in a 10 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The GFS has taken the meh pill the last few runs. The inland snow threat for Friday night is completely gone and the coastal for a few days later remains weak and well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Even last Feb as cold as it was we had trouble remaining all snow with most of the events, Almost all started as snow and changed over to rain or sleet as some point so its not always advantageous to have frigid temps Well,thawed depends where you are. None of the storms turned to "plain rain" up here,if anything it was sleet,snow,or freezing rain. But tempts during those events only maxed out at 31 or 32 but ended up falling during day. Then again that may of been January I'm thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well,thawed depends where you are. None of the storms turned to "plain rain" up here,if anything it was sleet,snow,or freezing rain. But tempts during those events only maxed out at 31 or 32 but ended up falling during day. Then again that may of been January I'm thinking of. Jan was meh last year until the Fri night storm of 1/23...that turned to rain for some as it ended. Then we had the "blizzard" 2-3 days later...which produced for eastern sections...after that it was off to the races...the storms here in Feb were almost 100% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Doubt anyone believes it but the 12z GGEM would be a rain to wet snow bomb for parts of the interior late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Doubt anyone believes it but the 12z GGEM would be a rain to wet snow bomb for parts of the interior late Sunday night. that model is always too wound up. But if it did happen that way, I could see a paste bomb for the elevated areas/inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Doubt anyone believes it but the 12z GGEM would be a rain to wet snow bomb for parts of the interior late Sunday night. Most of us in the interior would kill for a low placement like this. You know things are bad when its raining all the way into the Catskills with a storm offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 IMO the Banter Thread should be unpinned seems - kind of sad that it is the number 1 thread . Question - you have to post stats /images even in the banter thread ? Also I think it would be a good idea to have a thread where only METS can post - that might encourage more METS to participate on a regular basis and also educate the hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 IMO the Banter Thread should be unpinned seems - kind of sad that it is the number 1 thread . Question - you have to post stats /images even in the banter thread ? Also I think it would be a good idea to have a thread where only METS can post - that might encourage more METS to participate on a regular basis and also educate the hobbyists. Great idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 IMO the Banter Thread should be unpinned seems - kind of sad that it is the number 1 thread . Question - you have to post stats /images even in the banter thread ? Also I think it would be a good idea to have a thread where only METS can post - that might encourage more METS to participate on a regular basis and also educate the hobbyists. Yes, if you are making a claim about something, it has to be backed up. Im not talking about opinions. Im talking about hard facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 In NYC proper I never really worry about suppression. Even if it occurs for a time we usually cash in at some point on the backend when the Pv lifts out or once it rolls around again and we get a wave coming in behind the trough. Point is that the 11-20th is a 10 day period of better than average snow chance for the city and coast due to the fact that the cold is established and when that happens for a good 10 day period we usually are able to cash in on a variety of ways: clipper, mauler, offshore coastal rotating under the trough or eastern low/overrunning as the pattern breaks down some. I'd say a pretty good chance of a 3"+ snowfall during this period of time for the city/coast. After that we'll see what happens as the pattern breaks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 IMO the Banter Thread should be unpinned seems - kind of sad that it is the number 1 thread . Question - you have to post stats /images even in the banter thread ? Also I think it would be a good idea to have a thread where only METS can post - that might encourage more METS to participate on a regular basis and also educate the hobbyists. Excellent idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Great idea. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Per Mid-Atlantic sub-forum, the 12z GEFS is hideous. Cold air from next week's "arctic blast" is almost non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Is it still okay to have an opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Per Mid-Atlantic sub-forum, the 12z GEFS is hideous. Cold air from next week's "arctic blast" is almost non-existent. oh, the dreaded 01-02, 11-12 type "peggy lee" trough? Yikes if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The GFS has taken the meh pill the last few runs. The inland snow threat for Friday night is completely gone and the coastal for a few days later remains weak and well offshore. If it's not a threat for the coast as well, there is no threat. The 1990s are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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