Snowfall predictions for 2015-2016

[Damage In Tolland]

Welcome

My first 2 attempts at posting in here yesterday resulted in BXengine deleting them for some reason.

 

To me, NYC is on the line this winter..south of there twds Philly/DC etc..it's going to be very difficult to see much snow..but you can make the case of NYC doing ok

[BxEngine]

My first 2 attempts at posting in here yesterday resulted in BXengine deleting them for some reason.

To me, NYC is on the line this winter..south of there twds Philly/DC etc..it's going to be very difficult to see much snow..but you can make the case of NYC doing ok

Because your posts had nothing to do with your (or anyones) prediction for snowfall. If you want to discuss larry cosgrove, we have a vendor thread.

[EasternLI]

Rooting for UnionWeatherWx for selfish reasons 

 

 

Personally, I'm in the LBSF camp for this year. I think this could be one of the N&W of the city winters. I think there will be plenty of chances, sure, but I think the coast may struggle with taint this year. That doesn't mean a fail of a season though. I'm thinking 20-30 for my area out here. For NYC 30-40, and going up from there as you head N&W of the city.

[WintersGrasp]

NYC: 35-45" PHL : 20-30" NW Suburbs lower elevations (NJ/NY) : 45-60" NW Suburbs higher elevations (NJ/NY) : 60-85" Long Island : 30-55"

[Cfa]

EWR - 30-34"

NYC - 28-32"

LGA - 26-30"

ISP - 23-27"

JFK - 22-26"

PHL - 17-21"

[Yanksfan]

NYC METRO: 53" more to the North and west.

[weathermedic]

NYC: 32-37"

JFK:  25-30"

LAG: 29-34"

[nflwxman]

BDR: 32"

BOS: 28"

NYC: 28"

JFK:  25"

LAG: 25"

EWR: 30"

TTN: 31"

PHL: 33"

BWI: 22"

DCA: 18"

RIC: 18"

IAD: 25"

 

 

 

CHO: 28" 

[Brian5671]

EWR - 35
NYC - 30
LGA - 25
ISP - 25
JFK - 25
PHL - 20

BDR-35

[IsentropicLift]

NYC - 23.4"

LGA - 21.7"

JFK - 18.2"

ISP - 26.8"

HPN - 40.7"

BDR - 22.8"

MMU - 38.5"

TTN - 35.6"

PHL - 42.7"

ACY - 22.5"

BWI - 47.5"

DCA - 58.7"

[nflwxman]

NYC - 23.4"

LGA - 21.7"

JFK - 18.2"

ISP - 26.8"

HPN - 40.7"

BDR - 22.8"

MMU - 38.5"

TTN - 35.6"

PHL - 42.7"

ACY - 22.5"

BWI - 47.5"

DCA - 58.7"

Calling for a record season at DCA?

[Stormlover74]

Sussex - 32

EWR 15

Central Park 14.2

PHL 6.5

ACY 1.5

[IsentropicLift]

Calling for a record season at DCA?

Indeed. Thanks in part to a very active Southern stream and what I think will be some well timed intrusions of cold air building down from the Lakes.

[nzucker]

Central Park: 19"

Newark: 23"

DCA: 16"

[MJO812]

Indeed. Thanks in part to a very active Southern stream and what I think will be some well timed intrusions of cold air building down from the Lakes.

Alot of suppression?

[MJO812]

My first 2 attempts at posting in here yesterday resulted in BXengine deleting them for some reason.

To me, NYC is on the line this winter..south of there twds Philly/DC etc..it's going to be very difficult to see much snow..but you can make the case of NYC doing ok

40N winter Post in the NYC threads more often. Dont let anyone get to you.

[easternsnowman]

I agree that NYC may do okay but south of there could be a problem unless the Atlantic cooperates. I do think north and west and especially inland locations will do pretty well this year.

[Rjay]

NYC 45

ISP 35

HPN 55

Sussex CO and Orange CO the big winners in our subforum. 65"+

Crap, I messed up. I meant:

NYC 0"

ISP -1"

HPN 1.5"

Juliancolton-land 2.5"

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Crap, I messed up. I meant:

NYC 0"

ISP -1"

HPN 1.5"

Juliancolton-land 2.5"

This is for before January 15th right? Nice cast!!!

[rygar]

we've had some good years in a row, due for a stinker.  15 or less for the park

[MJO812]

I think some people in this thread are thinking El Nino = warmth and no snow. If we do get a -NAO and -AO with the usually active STJ in el nino winters, watch out.

[donsutherland1]

Taking into consideration what now very likely appears to be a predominantly positive AO during December and perhaps the first half of January coupled with an abnormally warm December, my guesses are as follows:

 

Baltimore: 18.0"

Boston: 26.5"

Harrisburg: 22.0"

New York City: 15.6"

Philadelphia: 16.8"

Richmond: 12.5"

Washington, DC: 17.4"

 

I'm looking for a modified version of what happened in 1965-66 though with less intense and shorter-duration blocking than occurred during that winter. Should the AO go negative more quickly and Region 1+2 cool more quickly than currently modeled relative to Regions 3.4 and 4, the potential for double the snowfall amounts could exist for an area running from Washington, DC to Boston. 

 

A few weeks ago, I had been thinking 20"-30" snow in NYC and 35"-45" for Boston, but I had assumed a lot more blocking than now appears likely. The end result is that I've reduced my expectations for January snowfall by nearly 50% for NYC and Boston and trimmed some of the February snowfall, as well. I expect little snowfall in December in NYC (<2") and Boston (<3") on account of much of the month's being warmer to much warmer than normal.

[donsutherland1]

I'd say it's 1 in 500 in a normal year (no trace), and like 1 in 150-200 in an El Niño year.  Of course, with El Niño typically bringing above avg precip, that might cancel out the typically milder temps (because you'd have to figure at SOME point it'd still be cold enough to at least record a trace).  Has DC even had a year in which they never recorded even a trace?

Washington's lowest seasonal snowfall is 0.1" (1972-73 and 1997-98).

[Eduardo]

Taking into consideration what now very likely appears to be a predominantly positive AO during December and perhaps the first half of January coupled with an abnormally warm December, my guesses are as follows:

Baltimore: 18.0"

Boston: 26.5"

Harrisburg: 22.0"

New York City: 15.6"

Philadelphia: 16.8"

Richmond: 12.5"

Washington, DC: 17.4"

I'm looking for a modified version of what happened in 1965-66 though with less intense and shorter-duration blocking than occurred during that winter. Should the AO go negative more quickly and Region 1+2 cool more quickly than currently modeled relative to Regions 3.4 and 4, the potential for double the snowfall amounts could exist for an area running from Washington, DC to Boston.

A few weeks ago, I had been thinking 20"-30" snow in NYC and 35"-45" for Boston, but I had assumed a lot more blocking than now appears likely. The end result is that I've reduced my expectations for January snowfall by nearly 50% for NYC and Boston and trimmed some of the February snowfall, as well. I expect little snowfall in December in NYC (<2") and Boston (<3") on account of much of the month's being warmer to much warmer than normal.

Ooooof! Coming from a respected contributor like you, that stings!

Question: I'm guessing this means that you feel a 20"-type event is out of the question unless blocking develops more quickly or the Niño abruptly becomes a more pronounced west-based one?

[jm1220]

NYC: 22"

JFK: 19"

ISP: 26"

HPN: 27"

PHL: 20"

DCA: 17"

IAD: 24"

BOS: 35"

HFD: 33"

 

UNV: 45"

MDT: 40"

IPT: 42"

ABE: 32"

AVP: 45"

 

AUS: 2" (I get lucky with a sleet/snow round or two, average here is about a coating per winter)

 

The first half to 2/3 of December looks pretty much shot with a rampant Pacific jet pattern across the lower 48, and while Feb is usually the best part of Nino winters, how much warm air is around as well as suppression are flies in the ointment. My guess balances suppression with some storms where the R/S line is a problem. 

[nzucker]

I think some people in this thread are thinking El Nino = warmth and no snow. If we do get a -NAO and -AO with the usually active STJ in el nino winters, watch out.

The chance of a major -NAO/-AO winter seems to be fading a bit. We have not seen a sustained winter NAO block since March 2013, and the NAO was quite positive in Winters 13-14 and 14-15. Despite this summer's blocking, the NAO looks to remain positive with a 510dm polar vortex and -30C 850s parked over Greenland. It's been really difficult to mute the active pattern over the North Atlantic, which may be related in a feedback mechanism to the cooler SSTs there and declining AMO.

Although the high Eurasian snowcover should theoretically lead to blocking, 10mb and 50mb temperatures have been near record low values late this fall, indicating a stronger than normal PV. The H5 pattern shown on the 6-10 day EC ENS is very unfavorable for disturbing the PV with a trough over Northeast Siberia/Kamchatka/Bering Sea as well as the aforementioned low heights over Greenland. The AO should continue to average strongly positive due to these factors, as early attempts to disturb the vortex have been unsuccessful.

Although the El Nino, working with high snow cover, will probably produce a -AO later this winter due to increased ozone transport from tropics to high latitudes, it may not be enough to overcome the highly +NAO/AO that will probably reign in December and early January. That is, December will have such a strong +NAO/AO that it will be hard to average a -AO/NAO for the winter as a whole.

However, it only takes a few weeks of blocking in February and March to reach normal snowfall, especially with climo for Nor'easters reaching its peak in February. February 2010 had 40-50" of snowfall in a single month, and we saw last winter how BOS could go into January 20th with 6" of snowfall and emerge 8 weeks later with its snowiest winter on record with over 120"...

For this reason, Don and I are both forecasting only slightly below normal snowfall with 16-20" for NYC; I expect northwest suburbs to receive 25-30", or about 70% of normal. We are both expecting a highly favorable window in February and March as the PNA spikes, but Don is reducing totals (I assume) since the poor pattern looks to encompass early January and not just December, due to the persistence of the PV and lack of any signs of -NAO blocking. The change to a better regime for snowfall, although not completely denied, will be significantly delayed.

[donsutherland1]

Ooooof! Coming from a respected contributor like you, that stings!

Question: I'm guessing this means that you feel a 20"-type event is out of the question unless blocking develops more quickly or the Niño abruptly becomes a more pronounced west-based one?

If we could get a period of strong and sustained blocking, such an event would be a possibility. Right now, there's very little evidence to support such blocking. The stratosphere is forecast to remain abnormally cold through the extended range, as well. Of course, the AO can't be forecast reliably beyond a few weeks, so we'll see what happens after December. Hopefully, the polar vortex will ultimately weaken, be displaced, or split.

[Logan11]

The problem with making snowall predictions in an El Nino year is that one KU thrown in could blow every forecast to bits if it was a major 18-24" snowfall in these coastal cities. I think back to 1982-83 where a couple storms made the whole winter.

[Stormlover74]

The problem with making snowall predictions in an El Nino year is that one KU thrown in could blow every forecast to bits if it was a major 18-24" snowfall in these coastal cities. I think back to 1982-83 where a couple storms made the whole winter.

and 94-95 was a total dud winter but one good storm saved it from being in the worst. We can't count on that but you're right it could save us. 97/98 it never got cold enough until mid March so we got that one crappy 3" event that melted in 6 hours at the tail end of a noreaster

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I'm still fine with my forecast. There was allot of negativity way in to the new year last winter and look how that turned out.

Currently I would give my nyc cast

30% less then 20"

50% 20-30"

20% 30"+

The beginning of the winter is shot. I do not think we have enough cold air for a blockbuster second half like last winter so my game plan is 90% of the snow falls after jan 15th with 90% of the 20-30" falling in 4 events centered around February