usedtobe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12 Euro ensembles still have lots of spread but way more out to sea tracks then Mid Atlantic hits. Makes for a tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z Euro ensemble tracks more strongly favor glancing blow or out to sea now. Roughly 1/3 bring (center of) the system into SC/NC/VA. So, is that a shift away from what the Euro has been saying, or holding steady? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 basically where we're at We are like 4 1/2 or less depending how far south this hits. Models do not make the forecast, meteorologists make the forecast. And in the case of Sandy, the mets were spot on this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So, is that a shift away from what the Euro has been saying, or holding steady? I'd say they are holding steady and mostly support the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is experiencing dry air at the moment, halting strengthening. My guess is the NAM's synoptic setup looks plausible. I think Joaquin will stay at current strength or weaken before landfall. Don't think this will be a wind and surge event, but rather a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If Euro (and ensembles) are so far east do you think that supports that the western models are too far west? Should one expect GFS and company to correct north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eagerly awaiting H20's map. I think it will depict a fast and hard track up the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Was waiting for the right advisory for this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eagerly awaiting H20's map. I think it will depict a fast and hard track up the Bay. oh crap. Now the pressure is on. I'll wait until morning after the 0z Eurololololololol run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No major changes on the 18z HWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Was waiting for the right advisory for this: On the west side. Joaquin fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GEFS mean ILM-OBX area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GEFS mean ILM-OBX area You realize those two places are about 200 miles apart right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The pattern with the strong ridge in the gulf of main and the negatively tilted troff clearly does not favor the Euro solution. It's going to have to pull off a crazy ninja move to defy the pattern and track right into the 588dm ridge. I don't see how Ida's remnants or the retrograding tutt are strong enough to have a major impact on a Cat2-3 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The pattern with the strong ridge in the gulf of main and the negatively tilted troff clearly does not favor the Euro solution. It's going to have to pull off a crazy ninja move to defy the pattern and track right into the 588dm ridge. I don't see how Ida's remnants or the retrograding tutt are strong enough to have a major impact on a Cat2-3 hurricane. From what I understand it's a fujiwara sort of effect. I mean I'm not saying I buy it - tho it's ensembles are all over the place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 From what I understand it's a fujiwara sort of effect. I mean I'm not saying I buy it - tho it's ensembles are all over the place too. GGEM and the NAVGEM should be the #1 proponents of the idea then, because they make ida back into a hurricane. All other models keep it a TD or weak TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seeing flight level winds of 95kts on one of the recon obs. Showing SFMR of 67kts on the same report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 FWIW, All of the OTS solutions are gone from the GFS Ensemble. I have suspected since yesterday that the Euro and GFS would bend towards each other with no camp winning out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 storm is just rotating around. not really moving. Nice eye showing up now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eye is visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Nice graphic, Ian. Tbh- I would just like to have the center track to our S and W if we are going to feel the effects in this region. Anything to our E and N may as well miss all together. We're in a tough spot to feel the effects of any tropical. The events are rare here and this setup offers the possibility of memorable. I would prefer not to remember light rain and 10 knot breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 FWIW, All of the OTS solutions are gone from the GFS Ensemble. I have suspected since yesterday that the Euro and GFS would bend towards each other with no camp winning out in the end. I find that hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 8pm Ob from NHC has Joaquin up to 105 sustained and looking healthy. Could be a good night for the system to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 105 at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302357 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From the big picture perspective, there's a strong, if not super Niño, occurring right now so I would certainly think an ots scenario would be favored in light of shear regardless of current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That would explain the eye forming. getting symmetrical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquinwas located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Joaquinhas been drifting southward during the past few hours, but a generalmotion toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) is expected throughThursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is forecastThursday night or Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected tomove near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight andThursday, and be near or over portions of the Northwestern BahamasThursday night or Friday.Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraftindicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening isforecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to becomea major hurricane during the next 24 hours.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles(205 km).The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissanceaircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I find that hard to believe. It's hard to believe because it's utterly bat-**** crazy. Even the slower solutions somehow end up hitting the NE US on this ensemble suite. Here they are... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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