Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
bluewave

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS

Recommended Posts

Big question that still has to be considered is will Joaquin fully take the bait of the upper low a la 00Z GFS, or stay a little farther east of it and ride farther north up the coast? You may remember Edouard from 1996 that was forecast by global models to clobber the Mid Atlantic but kept riding 70N instead, avoiding full interaction with a digging trough to the west. Will depend how far west Joaquin gets before turning north I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And then you have this....

GFDL-STORM_MSLPQPF_ELEVEN11L_f120.png?14

Actually very much in line with my thinking.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like an eye is forming in Joaquin. It has to be a hurricane now

Can you please share what website you are following it live?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like they're being conservative until a HH plane can get in there. If I had to bet, the pressure is likely around 985 right now. It seems like the shear is done for the time being. It's a hurricane for sure, but I guess we'll have to wait until 5AM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like they're being conservative until a HH plane can get in there. If I had to bet, the pressure is likely around 985 right now. It seems like the shear is done for the time being. It's a hurricane for sure, but I guess we'll have to wait until 5AM.

Exactly. May also be a less experienced and greener forecaster on the overnight shift. Nervous to be to Gung go.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's irrelevant. Media outlets will get the 5AM update as a hurricane in time to broadcast .

Exactly. It'll be upgraded at 5:00.

 

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was

located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Joaquin is

moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this

general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move

near or over portions of the central Bahamas Wednesday night or

Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and

Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),

mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It isn't "clearly" a hurricane. Objective guidance has not reached 4.0 on Dvorak. Why would u pull the trigger without additional evidence? Also is seems that intensification has leveled off from this afternoon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2.55 inches of rain over night. storm total 3.20 inches including yesterday

 

I'm in Highland Lakes too. (Just a lurker on AmericanWx til now). My PWS has a storm total of 3.85 in and 2.99 in since midnight. Some very heavy downpours in the early AM!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×