billgwx

You're welcome. Been a while

I'd look at the resulting wet bulb temperatures from MOS temp and dewpoint more than its forecast temp. A quick and dirty estimate for wet bulb is Dpt + 2/3 * (Tmp - Dpt). Values 32-34 may still get you wet snow, provided snow is what's falling and not sleet or rain...once you lose a snowflake you can't get it back

Which is what the warmer NAM solutions had been forecasting.

Let's at least figure out why this is happening. One storm sticks out in my mind where the NAM scored a warmer coup like this--March 2001. Global models stayed cold, NAM was the first to cast doubt with warmer profiles aloft, it ended up being right. Was at Mount Holly where we had warnings up, got a sloppy 1-3." Eastern Long Island still did very well though. I've also seen the NAM go too far NW/warm, so it works both ways. Consistency is key. If the 18Z run goes warm I'll buy it.

Like being a pro athlete and tuning in to WFAN to hear similar

Fake news. We had to stop doing those when we stopped issuing Blizzard Watches

Would be reflected more at 700 mb and 850 mb I think...

Want to see other guidance as amped/warm as the 12Z NAM cycles before jumping on it. Latest parallel GFS looked similar at H5 but was cold...oh wait the GFS is often too cold aloft. Anyway, the NAM amplification yesterday didn't appear to be due to convective feedback. But the model's not consistent run-to-run, 12Z'ers amped/warm and the other cycles colder. All that said, I didn't entirely discount the warmer idea yesterday and threw in some south shore/east end mixing for Long Island.

Blizzard watches got discontinued, just because of that one March bust a few years ago. When we've issued them otherwise they worked out quite nicely. I think the rationale was that we all freak out when the S word is mentioned, throwing the B word in there too early gets everyone jacked up way too much too soon. Could go winter storm watch to blizzard warning, also winter storm watch to winter storm warning and then issue a shorter fused blizzard warning. We don't typically do that, the Sterling office has.

Too early for a watch. Very long lead times just lead to "watch fatigue," needlessly add to everyone's work, and invariably something goes wrong. We all know it's coming.

Kuchera ratios are way overblown for this storm...does not account for wind for one. I ran them yesterday for the OKX long term forecast for laughs...15:1?? As usual with the big storms, 12:1 probably best inland and 10:1 closer to the coast, less for wet snow or where sleet mixes in per the NAM.

January 2016? GFS was the most suppressed as usual with that storm, then the NAM/SREF came into view and corrected that fast as they appear to be doing now.

Agree but would also like to see the SREF there too as in Jan 2016.

GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.

And the ECMWF long range suggested the idea of a mid December NYC snow event in early November!!

ECMWF could be too. Miles to go here but the overall big picture looks good

Today's ECMWF H5 vort and sfc low track were a little too far north for my liking for NYC/Long Island to be all in, supporting being cautious in those areas as you point out. Meanwhile GFS was right down the sweet spot. Also, case of models sniffing it out a week early, only to lose it Days 3-5, then come back to it come watch time? We shall see

Southern stream shortwave trough that is staying open and not going neg-tilt before crossing the Mississippi River Valley...check 50-50 low whose back side confluence will maintain New England high pressure/cold air...check Track of sfc low and H5 vort max...a little too far north for my liking in today's 12Z op ECMWF but sweet in the op GFS The "1 week" rule where models see it that far out, then lose it days 3-5, then come back days 1-2? Probably. The amazing thing is that the teleconnections in the EPS weeklies saw this potential in **early November**

Agree. About to take the leash off the dogs

Gotcha. Nor have we seen +QBO over 10.0 like we have now with a moderate La Nina. (QBO usually tends to follow ENSO phase with some lag.) Related?

Even if you are a fan of horror movies (aka "The Blob") got to see things in greater perspective, which to me is the entire North Pacific being warm, aka -PDO. I think that will work to maintain the moderate Nina for longer, with any weakening holding off til late Feb or beyond.

Nicely done especially with respect to the MJO, and had came to similar conclusions. Doesn't mean we here in the NYC area can't experience periods of cold and snow (mid December potential case in point) but it's not looking like a cold/snow lover's winter here. Some other things to consider: While October Siberian snowfall was 10th highest on record of the last 50+ years, its signal for cold and snow in the Northeast has not worked out well in recent years. Judah Cohen suspects persistently low Arctic sea ice may be playing a role here, and I also notice that in recent years North American October snowfall has been very high and may be stealing the show there. I've wondered how the QBO could influence this winter. It's totally out of phase with the ongoing moderate ENSO phase, which has never happened before in the period of record. Looking at its potential influence alone suggests less potential for ozone transport from the tropics to the polar regions, which in turn offers less potential for weakening of the polar vortex, implying an overall a +AO phase for this winter. Moderate La Niña events of yore in NYC were some of the coldest and snowiest in the city's history. But I think almost all were embedded in multi-year La Niña events, and featured pronounced below normal 500 mb heights over all of Canada and persistent high latitude blocking near Scandinavia, also above normal heights to a lesser degree extending from the eastern U.S across the north Atlantic to Britain, and below normal heights from the subtropical Atlantic eastward to the Middle East. Recent moderate La Niña events (all warm in NYC) all featured persistent high latitude blocking centered over central Siberia, much below normal heights centered over Alaska (+EPO), and above normal heights over most of the temperate regions. To add local flavor to the I looked at two things: (1) average October/November temperatures in Central Park with those of DJF and (2) Central Park winter snowfall in seasons following previous winters with less than 10." Of the last 30 years, those with October/November temperature anomaly trends similar to those of this year, above normal as a whole where November positive anomalies were greater than those of October, were 80% likely to see a warm winter with below normal snowfall. The only predictor to show any skill for a cold winter overall was a cold October, but with only about 55-60% confidence. Other trends in NYC October and November anomalies (warm to cold or vice versa) had little skill. As for (2), only one following winter of record featured an ongoing moderate La Niña, (1998-99, with much below normal snowfall of 12.7 inches), and all the following winters with above normal snowfall occurred during El Niño events.

Not quite obsolete as it provides a lot of info you can't get from other soundings, not quite keeping up with the times either. Could do so much more given developers with the right focus.

Too early. Wake me up when September ends That said, it should be noted that the Arctic sea ice minimum this month tied for 2nd lowest in recorded history. The record year 2012 was a real outlier, with a severe Arctic storm that August adding to losses above and beyond, so this is about as good as it gets so far. Anyway, that min is bound to have some effect on things this winter, but of course by itself means nothing without the nearer term snowfall response in Siberia in October, the longer term response (usually in northwestern Siberia) of anomalous surface high pressure in November, and still we must look out for wild cards that same month--recurving typhoons and other factors that could throw a wrench in the works. Locally we don't want October and November to both be warm months...

Wasn't weak sauce if you were looking at the Newark and JFK TDWR radar base velocities...low-topped nastiness given the steep low level lapse rates and very dry sub-cloud air. Trees down in Teaneck NJ and I bet elsewhere along the storm's path from Pompton Lakes all the way into the south Bronx. Still looking for damage reports...