mackerel_sky Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Ummm....I wouldn't bet on that. LOLYou know how much they love it when we get a good snow in the SE and all they get is cold and or clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 You know how much they love it when we get a good snow in the SE and all they get is cold and or clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 You know how much they love it when we get a good snow in the SE and all they get is cold and or clouds! I doubt Boston would be too dissapointed if they got little snow this winter after last winters snow blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 How awesome would it be if ATL /GSP /CLT corridor had a 50" winter!? Truly historic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 How awesome would it be if ATL /GSP /CLT corridor had a 50" winter!? Truly historic! We all know that it probably will not happen; BUT we live in an area where it could (statistically) happen. So we can at least dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 We all know that it probably will not happen; BUT we live in an area where it could (statistically) happen. So we can at least dream...have any of these cities ever had a 50" winter ? I know Atlanta probably gets 50" combined over a 25 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 have any of these cities ever had a 50" winter ? I know Atlanta probably gets 50" combined over a 25 year period. I would guess no, RDU highest is 32" and has only been over 20" 5 times in the past 130 years. Though we have had a bunch of seasons between 10-20". We typically get a 10"+ season every 3 or so years but it's been since 04 which is the longest stretch I have on record (130 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Bored...waiting on a business appointment. So click on these links & you can look at the Sept. ENSO anomalies that were similar in location of the warmest anomalies compared to the current Nino. Give me your opinion: 1930 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot 1951 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot 1957 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot 1972 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot 1976 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot 1982 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot 1987 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_...mit=Create+Plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I would guess no, RDU highest is 32" and has only been over 20" 5 times in the past 130 years. Though we have had a bunch of seasons between 10-20". We typically get a 10"+ season every 3 or so years but it's been since 04 which is the longest stretch I have on record (130 years). 1960 was as close to a 50 inch winter as we will get. I believe in my area there was around 35 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 While this Nino configuration isn't perfect, I would say this winter has a pretty decent chance at being a good one throughout the SE. Better than any in the last 5 years IMHO. I would be pretty optimistic if I lived south of VA. It's probably safe to say the Atlantic will cooperate more than it has recently. Kinda easy odds there though because it sure has stunk the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 While this Nino configuration isn't perfect, I would say this winter has a pretty decent chance at being a good one throughout the SE. Better than any in the last 5 years IMHO. I would be pretty optimistic if I lived south of VA. It's probably safe to say the Atlantic will cooperate more than it has recently. Kinda easy odds there though because it sure has stunk the last 2 years. No reason this couldn't be a 09/10 redux on HGH. Better odds on that than a 98 blowtorch, but that would be fun to see these boards this winter if we blowtorch. For central NC we can do well with strong ENSO, not a whole I would change at this point. #KOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 1960 was as close to a 50 inch winter as we will get. I believe in my area there was around 35 inches I'm sure if we had 2000 years of records there would be one year with >50 inches.We've had single storms that dropped half that value. No reason why there couldn't be two of those storms in one year. But, the odds of one of us (outside elevation) seeing that in our lifetime are very low. I have to add, we live in a very unique area weather wise; we can have a year were we get a big dog storm that rivals anything the NE gets, or we can get nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 No reason this couldn't be a 09/10 redux on HGH. Better odds on that than a 98 blowtorch, but that would be fun to see these boards this winter if we blowtorch. For central NC we can do well with strong ENSO, not a whole I would change at this point. #KOD. There's really not much left to speculate on until we get into mid-late Nov and see how the npac is doing. I haven't been posting about winter much at all this month. Even if it sucks going into Dec it really doesn't mean much unless there is a beast in a bad spot. Matt (zwyts) in our sub forum has said for years "give me a strong or super nino and take our chances.". That's exactly what we have this year. Some folks are getting caught up in fine details this fall but imho I don't think anything means much one way or another right now. There is potential to be great and conversely there is potential to suck really bad. But which side things go really can't be predicted at all at long leads. I really don't think a door to door raging AO/NAO is in the cards this year. Jury will be out on that for a while. One thing is certain, where we are right now sure beats the heck out of a strong Nina. If winter ends up a dud then so be it. But until there's no denying a hot mess (prob can't make that call until Feb) we should all be keeping our chins up. I ready for some big storms either way. There's nothing like tracking a couple solid miller A's on this board. The energy overflows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 There's really not much left to speculate on until we get into mid-late Nov and see how the npac is doing. I haven't been posting about winter much at all this month. Even if it sucks going into Dec it really doesn't mean much unless there is a beast in a bad spot. Matt (zwyts) in our sub forum has said for years "give me a strong or super nino and take our chances.". That's exactly what we have this year. Some folks are getting caught up in fine details this fall but imho I don't think anything means much one way or another right now. There is potential to be great and conversely there is potential to suck really bad. But which side things go really can't be predicted at all at long leads. I really don't think a door to door raging AO/NAO is in the cards this year. Jury will be out on that for a while. One thing is certain, where we are right now sure beats the heck out of a strong Nina. If winter ends up a dud then so be it. But until there's no denying a hot mess (prob can't make that call until Feb) we should all be keeping our chins up. I ready for some big storms either way. There's nothing like tracking a couple solid miller A's on this board. The energy overflows. Agree and agree, why I wouldn't change much at this point. You see DT's writeup today, it was interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I would guess no, RDU highest is 32" and has only been over 20" 5 times in the past 130 years. Though we have had a bunch of seasons between 10-20". We typically get a 10"+ season every 3 or so years but it's been since 04 which is the longest stretch I have on record (130 years). We're long overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 We're long overdue. Unfortunately mother nature doesn't know we are overdue, she doesn't keep score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Unfortunately mother nature doesn't know we are overdue, she doesn't keep score. I thought she had something against Brick. Guess I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 23, 2015 Author Share Posted September 23, 2015 There's really not much left to speculate on until we get into mid-late Nov and see how the npac is doing. Speculators gonna speculate Agree and agree, why I wouldn't change much at this point. You see DT's writeup today, it was interesting... https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/strongest-el-nino-ever-/921344634579462 It's a little tricky when looking at various SST data sets and which ones are used to initialize the models. No opinion on his forecast thoughts, but I disagree with saying that this nino may be "moderate and weakening this winter". As of right now, this nino is keeping pace with 97-98 in the nino 3.4 region, with no signs of weakening in the near term. The ONI for 97-98 peaked in OND & NDJ (+2.3) before weakening thereafter. The Sept IRI 26 model ensemble average has a +2.4 peak in OND & NDJ before weakening. Again, there are various SST data sets used for model initialization, but I don't see any way that this nino won't be categorized as one that is strong to very strong for winter purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The thing about DT's disco about weakening is that almost all Nino's weaken as you move through winter. Mid-late fall peak is most common as well. He's kinda insulated from making that statement. Odds strongly favor a consistent decline through winter so the only real question is how much and whether it's unusual or typical. At the end of the day I don't think it matters much. Feb is the absolute safest month to call for cold and/or snow. Basically standard Nino climo. If we roast/fail through all of Dec/Jan it's going to be hard to read both of our subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The thing about DT's disco about weakening is that almost all Nino's weaken as you move through winter. Mid-late fall peak is most common as well. He's kinda insulated from making that statement. Odds strongly favor a consistent decline through winter so the only real question is how much and whether it's unusual or typical. At the end of the day I don't think it matters much. Feb is the absolute safest month to call for cold and/or snow. Basically standard Nino climo. If we roast/fail through all of Dec/Jan it's going to be hard to read both of our subforums. The comedy itself will be worth it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Well as long as we are wet, I'll take it both ways. Cold and snowy or warm and stormy. What I do NOT want is cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 The thing about DT's disco about weakening is that almost all Nino's weaken as you move through winter. Mid-late fall peak is most common as well. He's kinda insulated from making that statement. Odds strongly favor a consistent decline through winter so the only real question is how much and whether it's unusual or typical. At the end of the day I don't think it matters much. Feb is the absolute safest month to call for cold and/or snow. Basically standard Nino climo. If we roast/fail through all of Dec/Jan it's going to be hard to read both of our subforums. That's pretty much what I am expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Make no bones about it. There is one big driver sitting behind the wheel for the upcoming winter pattern and that driver is the pac. The nino is a lock mod to strong. All eyes need to be on the ne pacific and what evolves. The pna is negative right now and thankfully it's September and not late Nov early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 While this Nino configuration isn't perfect, I would say this winter has a pretty decent chance at being a good one throughout the SE. Better than any in the last 5 years IMHO. I would be pretty optimistic if I lived south of VA. It's probably safe to say the Atlantic will cooperate more than it has recently. Kinda easy odds there though because it sure has stunk the last 2 years. Can't get much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Can't get much worse Ray posting in the SE forum! We have made it to the big time now! Yeah the past several winters the NAO has been horrendous with absolutely no help at all pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Can't get much worse Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Honestly, it doesn't even matter if the ao/nao end up + on the averages as long as there are multiple flips from + to - and vice versa. Phase flips are the prime windows in both the MA and SE. Another door to door + suckfest won't do any of us any favors this winter. I don't there there is much chance if any that the EPO overwhelms again. Well....at least not a - epo...[runs for cover] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Per WxSouth on Facebook: lots of damming events this winter and likely an 80s throwback kind of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Per WxSouth on Facebook: lots of damming events this winter and likely an 80s throwback kind of winter! If you stack a couple of quarters on the arm, directly over the needle, the record won't skip as badly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Per WxSouth on Facebook: lots of damming events this winter and likely an 80s throwback kind of winter! Ah the bright and shiny smell of optimism in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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