NCSNOW Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Here you go gang: Look at how stretched out this is growing from East to west. backing up into region 4. Looking pretty impressive imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I wish 1.2 would cool more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 Here you go gang: Look at how stretched out this is growing from East to west. backing up into region 4. Looking pretty impressive imo. Several of the seasonal models must be banking on the western warmth & forcing in spite of what will likely be a basin wide to slightly east based super nino. Here's the Oct CA Model....+PNA like the CANSIPS (Oct release) and Euro & UK (Sept release). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 SST CA has had it warm(hot) and basin wide for at least the last 2 months. I think most of the models are going with the forcing being west as the warm waters are expected to move from east to west over time. Feb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 September measurement was the warmest El Niño , in September, in recorded history , per NOAA! Way stronger than the 97/98 super niño readings for that Sept! Lookout snowy winter, it's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 September measurement was the warmest El Niño , in September, in recorded history , per NOAA! Way stronger than the 97/98 super niño readings for that Sept! Lookout snowy winter, it's coming! What parameter is 'way stronger' than 97/98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 What parameter is 'way stronger' than 97/98?Guess the actual sst agains the normal sst? Not sure. Just said this Sept sst were way stronger than the sst in Sept of 97/98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 What parameter is 'way stronger' than 97/98? Amplitude of .5 with Stronger equaling 1 Stronger Way stronger Way, way stronger Way, way, way stronger Strongest since measurements began Holy ****!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Amplitude of .5 with Stronger equaling 1 Stronger Way stronger Way, way stronger Way, way, way stronger Strongest since measurements began Holy ****!! I'd sure love some "Holy ****!!" down here ... But back to dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Guess the actual sst agains the normal sst? Not sure. Just said this Sept sst were way stronger than the sst in Sept of 97/98 It's not a crime to say that this El Nino is way stronger than 97-98 , but it IS scientifically inaccurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Seems like a nice cool shot is coming later this weekend and maybe an even better shot next week. New video is up. Let me know how y'all like them. I am going to be doing them daily again now that I have a laptop again. Here is hoping to a wet cool fall, with a few nice and dry days. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 FWIW... Glenn Burns 1 min · What will our winter be like? This is the question everyone has been asking. So, based on what I know now, here is what I think.By now, everyone knows we have a strong El Nino, which will likely last into the spring. Based on this and my 33 years of experience predicting our weather, I would say we are going to have more cloudy and rainy days than anything else. As far as temperatures go, I would expect temps to be at or slightly above average through December. I would also expect some extreme temperature swings in January, which could mean severe storms and possible tornadoes. I would expect late January into February to be colder, perhaps some snow and an even better chance for ice. Then heading into spring, I would expect a very active severe storm season. Again, this is based on trends I am seeing now. So, bottom line, more clouds and rain, (likely heavy rain events) possibly some snow/ice late winter but a little warmer than average into December. I will of course, have updates as things begin to evolve and more patterns begin to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 FWIW... Glenn Burns 1 min · What will our winter be like? This is the question everyone has been asking. So, based on what I know now, here is what I think. By now, everyone knows we have a strong El Nino, which will likely last into the spring. Based on this and my 33 years of experience predicting our weather, I would say we are going to have more cloudy and rainy days than anything else. As far as temperatures go, I would expect temps to be at or slightly above average through December. I would also expect some extreme temperature swings in January, which could mean severe storms and possible tornadoes. I would expect late January into February to be colder, perhaps some snow and an even better chance for ice. Then heading into spring, I would expect a very active severe storm season. Again, this is based on trends I am seeing now. So, bottom line, more clouds and rain, (likely heavy rain events) possibly some snow/ice late winter but a little warmer than average into December. I will of course, have updates as things begin to evolve and more patterns begin to take shape. Glenn is good with severe weather but not at predicting anything long range for winter. He always goes with the consensus or what the NWS says from what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46705-el-nino-and-early-winter-discussion/?p=3712498 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46705-el-nino-and-early-winter-discussion/?p=3712498I'm totally cool with torch forecasts! That way you don't set yourself up for heartbreak, like many people did last fall/winter! It can't be wall to wall torch, so we can sneak in an ice storm here or there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Everybody should just go on ahead and get your brains wrapped around a mild winter. The CFS is never right except when it's one of the only models predicting a mild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Everybody should just go on ahead and get your brains wrapped around a mild winter. The CFS is never right except when it's one of the only models predicting a mild winter.Don't give up so early Cold Rain. If you compare the latest temp forecast with the earliest one on the CFS2 site (I'm referring to the 3 month forecasts), the latest is cooler. Hopefully, that suggests a shift toward the other seasonal models that are definitely much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Don't give up so early Cold Rain. If you compare the latest temp forecast with the earliest one on the CFS2 site (I'm referring to the 3 month forecasts), the latest is cooler. Hopefully, that suggests a shift toward the other seasonal models that are definitely much colder. Hope you're right, Mitch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Looks stronger than 97. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The severe weather sounds exciting, but really hope this isn't going to be like last winter and we have a lot of rain, and then cold and dry. It finally got good in February. I just thought this winter was going to be better with more snow chances in December and January, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The severe weather sounds exciting, but really hope this isn't going to be like last winter and we have a lot of rain, and then cold and dry. It finally got good in February. I just thought this winter was going to be better with more snow chances in December and January, too. I'm not sure I remember a winter when we had abundant snow chances from December to March. It's certainly not the norm. The norm is rain, followed by cold and dry. What you're hoping for may be a tad unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm not sure I remember a winter when we had abundant snow chances from December to March. It's certainly not the norm. The norm is rain, followed by cold and dry. What you're hoping for may be a tad unrealistic. Oh, I know that's not normal. And I don't expect wall to wall snow in winter. I just thought we'd have more chances in December and January this winter compared to last with all the talk about how good things should be with the El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Oh, I know that's not normal. And I don't expect wall to wall snow in winter. I just thought we'd have more chances in December and January this winter compared to last with all the talk about how good things should be with the El Nino. From what I've been reading it seems the second half of winter may be our best chances for winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Looks stronger than 97. Thoughts? High chance this ends up as a top tier nino. Exactly where it shakes out remains to be seen. It's always a little tricky with those model SST projections because you don't know how they initialize the SSTs before making their forecast...and there are several different SST datasets used...but they give you the general idea of forecasted warming or cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 High chance this ends up as a top tier nino. Exactly where it shakes out remains to be seen. It's always a little tricky with those model SST projections because you don't know how they initialize the SSTs before making their forecast...and there are several different SST datasets used...but they give you the general idea of forecasted warming or cooling. Great discussion yesterday with HM on twitter, I liked the document you linked and the graph you posted showing the difference with previous nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Great discussion yesterday with HM on twitter, I liked the document you linked and the graph you posted showing the difference with previous nino's. Thanks man, I have it posted in here too with other discussion - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45281-2015-enso-super-thread/?p=3712706 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Thanks man, I have it posted in here too with other discussion - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45281-2015-enso-super-thread/?p=3712706 What link do you use to build your SST plots? I can't find the one your using, I like it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 What link do you use to build your SST plots? I can't find the one your using, I like it better. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl I used that one mainly because the NOAA Extended SST data on that site is from the ERSSTv3b dataset to match up with the data I used for the line graph. That site also has the HADISST and COBE SST datasets. You can get ERSSTv4 here (this is what's used for NOAA ONI calculation) - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl I used that one mainly because the NOAA Extended SST data on that site is from the ERSSTv3b dataset to match up with the data I used for the line graph. That site also has the HADISST and COBE SST datasets. You can get ERSSTv4 here (this is what's used for NOAA ONI calculation) - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Thanks! I use the ERSSTv4 one but wanted to check out the one you are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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