NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/notes/1149049311791789/ Thanks! Sounds good. I just hope this winter isn't totally elevation dependant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 What is the main argument for keeping '98 as an analog besides the strength of the nino? 1.2 is very warm like 97/98. This nino is warmer, much warmer further west than 97/98. But, yes, 97/98 isn't high on my list of analogs. But what do I know...:-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Thanks! Sounds good. I just hope this winter isn't totally elevation dependant.I'm an hour away from Asheville ! I will drive to the snow if I have to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 What is the main argument for keeping '98 as an analog besides the strength of the nino?I think the PDO or ocean temps are alot different. He keeps saying " warm oceans, cold continents " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Thanks! Sounds good. I just hope this winter isn't totally elevation dependant. No problem! If things don't change drastically between now and winter I would expect some nice snow for many. No way to know for sure but the signs are good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 1.2 is very warm like 97/98. This nino is warmer, much warmer further west than 97/98. But, yes, 97/98 isn't high on my list of analogs. But what do I know...:-) The quote below from Robert pretty much sums up why he doesn't think we see a '98 repeat. I'm hoping for the best this winter but after last winter who knows what we get. "I lean against a Warm Nation as a whole like 1997/98 simply because the oceans argue for a cold continent. Remember, warm oceans, cold continent. The Pacific turned much cooler south of Alaska in 97 by now, which led to west to east , zonal flow, keeping the cold air bottled well north and into eastern Canada. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I'm an hour away from Asheville ! I will drive to the snow if I have to! You know what, I'm about 45 minutes away from a 3200' mountain, 2000' higher than me. I've done it before, I'll do it again, but it's always that much better to witness it right in your own backyard. Oh well. You gotta do what you gotta do sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I think the PDO or ocean temps are alot different. He keeps saying " warm oceans, cold continents " Yep. Also, he did mention the early ulls that have been going far south are also a good sign. Hoping those bowling ball systems keep rolling in when the cold air is around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 No problem! If things don't change drastically between now and winter I would expect some nice snow for many. No way to know for sure but the signs are good so far. Yeah, I've read nothing so far that would suggest a bad winter for us. We will have the moisture (plenty of it), which is a necessity. We just need the cold; but as long as we have the moisture, we're game. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Any help from the Atlantic at all would trump last winter. I would take a neutral NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I actually think we could have a dominant -NAO and possibly a -AO and -PDO. I feel more comfortable saying looking at the seasonal stuff (even the CFS) showing the potential for a really nice -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I concur. We've had many 3-4 inchers in the past but something of the magnitude of a foot down here is worthy of talk for generations. I'd probably die before it even happened if it were forecasted for my area again. Just doesn't happen down here. Honestly, in person, I'm not even sure I'd know what to do with myself if I witnessed such an event. It is quite an awesome sight to see. Seen a few of them here in the Upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 It is quite an awesome sight to see. Seen a few of them here in the Upstate of SC. I wonder why the upstate sees more of them than North GA. Perhaps deeper into CAD or just the fact you're farther north or maybe both? Cause it seems like it's pulling teeth just to get my area to get close to HALF a foot, much less a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I wonder why the upstate sees more of them than North GA. Perhaps deeper into CAD or just the fact you're farther north or maybe both? Cause it seems like it's pulling teeth just to get my area to get close to HALF a foot, much less a foot. I think it could be a combination of both. I've noticed a lot of times how Atlanta gets slighted and we cash in. I remember in early January 1988, I think y'all had a big sleet storm while Greenville got up to 17 inches of solid snow in parts of the county. Seems the favored path sets up along or just north of Atlanta and then swings to the northeast through our area. Anyway I hope we all see some good ones this winter. I noticed Robert mentioned 1973 as one of the years similar to whats shaping this winter. We could only hope that we would get a snowstorm like the February '73 storm. Every once in a while I still go and read about that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Strong+ ENSO's are great for our area, of the 11 since 1950 only 2 were clunkers, 98 and 92. You toss 92 due to Pinatubo and you have 9/10 of strong+ ENSO's that were cold/snowy, 5 of the 9 snowy ones were above 11" for RDU, the other 4 averaged around 7-8". That's fairly strong correlation but it's not 100% like anything. Those are great odds. Problem is it seems lately we have been going against the odds when having supposedly good setups for snow. Sure, we have had average winters, but nothing really above average for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I think it could be a combination of both. I've noticed a lot of times how Atlanta gets slighted and we cash in. I remember in early January 1988, I think y'all had a big sleet storm while Greenville got up to 17 inches of solid snow in parts of the county. Seems the favored path sets up along or just north of Atlanta and then swings to the northeast through our area. Anyway I hope we all see some good ones this winter. I noticed Robert mentioned 1973 as one of the years similar to whats shaping this winter. We could only hope that we would get a snowstorm like the February '73 storm. Every once in a while I still go and read about that storm. I wonder what my area got in '88. Was there CAD with that storm? I was only 3. I'm like 45 miles N of the airport so usually I get considerably more than them. BTW, If I were alive to witness the '73 snowstorm, I'd either have cried myself to sleep lol or drove 100 miles south. We need something like that along and North of the I-85 corridor this winter! I'd be a very happy camper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I wonder what my area got in '88. Was there CAD with that storm? I was only 3. I'm like 45 miles N of the airport so usually I get considerably more than them. BTW, If I were alive to witness the '73 snowstorm, I'd either have cried myself to sleep lol or drove 100 miles south. We need something like that along and North of the I-85 corridor this winter! I'd be a very happy camper! Yeah I would have been totally PO'd if I had lived in Greenville then because they didn't get very much at all out of it. I lived in Greenwood then and we got at least 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I wonder what my area got in '88. Was there CAD with that storm? I was only 3. I'm like 45 miles N of the airport so usually I get considerably more than them. BTW, If I were alive to witness the '73 snowstorm, I'd either have cried myself to sleep lol or drove 100 miles south. We need something like that along and North of the I-85 corridor this winter! I'd be a very happy camper! I'm not sure about a CAD event during the '88 storm. I know it came in on the heels of an Arctic outbreak. The day before it came in we didn't get above 30 degrees for a high and the next day very heavy snow and temps in the mid to upper teens all day. You don't see that much in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 I wonder what my area got in '88. Was there CAD with that storm? I was only 3. I'm like 45 miles N of the airport so usually I get considerably more than them. BTW, If I were alive to witness the '73 snowstorm, I'd either have cried myself to sleep lol or drove 100 miles south. We need something like that along and North of the I-85 corridor this winter! I'd be a very happy camper! The damming was as good as it gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 I think it could be a combination of both. I've noticed a lot of times how Atlanta gets slighted and we cash in. I remember in early January 1988, I think y'all had a big sleet storm while Greenville got up to 17 inches of solid snow in parts of the county. Seems the favored path sets up along or just north of Atlanta and then swings to the northeast through our area. Anyway I hope we all see some good ones this winter. I noticed Robert mentioned 1973 as one of the years similar to whats shaping this winter. We could only hope that we would get a snowstorm like the February '73 storm. Every once in a while I still go and read about that storm. I will say if there was a repeat of the Feb 1973 storm this winter, the meltdowns on this forum would be a 1 in 1,000 year level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Its a good thing I'm too young to remember that 1988 storm. It looks like my county was the only county in the entire northern half of GA that got under 2 inches. Even areas well southeast of me had more snow. Total screwjob also for I-20 corridor in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The damming was as good as it gets... G.O.A.T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 The damming was as good as it gets... That looks like it was a mouth watering storm, not to mention bitterly cold. CAD at its finest. I wonder why the significant snow gradient between say Alpharetta and Ellijay in Georgia though. Usually it's not that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Its a good thing I'm too young to remember that 1988 storm. It looks like my county was the only county in the entire northern half of GA that got under 2 inches. Even areas well southeast of me had more snow. Total screwjob also for I-20 corridor in AL. Actually, quite honestly that looks almost identical to the storm on 2/25 for the I-20 corridor in AL. Total screw job. I just don't understand the tight snow gradient between about Alpharetta and Ellijay. I assume it's due to WAA allowing for less snow the further south you went. Looking at different obs on wunderground for this event, precip began and ended with temps AOB freezing and in some cases in the more prone CAD areas of NE/EC GA, temps hovered at or just below 20 with strong winds! That just never happens. Talk about a shivering storm. What I wouldn't give to experience that. Almost every storm I can recall I'm always fearing going above freezing. Always right on the line. Speaking of the tight gradients in that storm, how accurate do you guys think that map actually is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Let's keep musings of wive's favorite penis size out of the discussion threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Since we're reminiscing about past storms and the fact that we're still months away from any threats (to keep things interesting in boring times), I think someone should make a thread listing past winter storms going back to say the 70s or 80s with snow accumulation maps for the SE, with commentary if people remember the storms and their recollections. Just an idea. Would be fun I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 G.O.A.TTotal GOAT! In Gastonia , befor the storm ended, it mixed with or changed to sleet and or freezing rain. There was about 1/4 inch of crust, ontop of 14-16" inches of powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Since we're reminiscing about past storms and the fact that we're still months away from any threats (to keep things interesting in boring times), I think someone should make a thread listing past winter storms going back to say the 70s or 80s with snow accumulation maps for the SE, with commentary if people remember the storms and their recollections. Just an idea. Would be fun I think. I like that idea. If the moderators don't mind, I may start a thread about it. (But if someone else wants to start it, I don't care if they beat me to it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 I like that idea. If the moderators don't mind, I may start a thread about it. (But if someone else wants to start it, I don't care if they beat me to it). Fire away...anyways, we are better at modeled snow and ancient history snow than we are at actual flakes flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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