griteater Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 HM says..."the AO will be negative this year and I can say that without the SAI." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Ryan Maue just put out this graphic for the last 48 runs of the CFSV2 for snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 HM says..."the AO will be negative this year and I can say that without the SAI." Nino's lend itself to -AO? Sure is a high correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 Nino's lend itself to -AO? Sure is a high correlation.They do but not as much with the big ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Ryan Maue just put out this graphic for the last 48 runs of the CFSV2 for snowfall That's pretty impressive considering the CFS2 is the warmest seasonal model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Winter Outlook from RaysWeather.com out of Boone http://averyweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 JMA seasonal Oct update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Interesting Dec on the JMA is a wintery pattern for the SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 JMA very 83 like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Ryan Maue just put out this graphic for the last 48 runs of the CFSV2 for snowfall That would be awesome. Looks way above average for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Yes, Ryan did post that graphic... but the text with the graphic did not get posted. "CFSv2 *raw* snowfall output--last 48-forecasts (12-days) for Winter 2015-16 avg NOT meaningful for southern states" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 NOAA released their winter outlook. Wetter than average in the Southeast, and below average temps likely in the Southeast. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 NOAA released their winter outlook. Wetter than average in the Southeast, and below average temps likely in the Southeast. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html Lots of cold rains and very little snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Lots of cold rains and very little snow! One Cold Rain on this forum is enough... we don't need lots of cold rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 One Cold Rain on this forum is enough... we don't need lots of cold rains Even Cold Rain would get tired of all the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 NOAA released their winter outlook. Wetter than average in the Southeast, and below average temps likely in the Southeast. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html Discussion from NOAA regarding their outlook... THE GREATEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST A MIDST A STRONG EL NINO. FORECAST TOOLS DIVERGE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. THE CFS INDICATES EL NINO IS BY FAR THE DOMINANT PLAYER WITH A WARM FORECAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. ON THE OTHER HAND, SOME STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS SUCH AS THE CA, CCA AND SMLR HINT AT A COLDER FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PREDICTORS ARE TAPPING INTO CONTINUED WARM NORTH PACIFIC SSTS. STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, AND THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION, HOWEVER, COULD VERY WELL MODIFY THIS STRUCTURE. THE FORECAST IS A BALANCE BETWEEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the year of the WEDGE. there maybe some MEGA highs that drill in the confluence of the jet in NE. That could spell many possible ICING events vs SNOW events. Hell, who knows what will happen, but IMO NOAA needs to atleast up the SE to a much higher % and make it more widespread with the precip. just my 2c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the year of the WEDGE. there maybe some MEGA highs that drill in the confluence of the jet in NE. That could spell many possible ICING events vs SNOW events. Hell, who knows what will happen, but IMO NOAA needs to atleast up the SE to a much higher % and make it more widespread with the precip. just my 2c I agree Chris but they (NOAA) are notoriously conservative and middle of the road in all predictions and have been for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT has a great writeup for this upcoming winter, no predictions yet but his thoughts on where things stand.... https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!268&ithint=file%2cpptx&app=PowerPoint&authkey=!AMQEjYeZvKqIUFI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT has a great writeup for this upcoming winter, no predictions yet but his thoughts on where things stand.... https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!268&ithint=file%2cpptx&app=PowerPoint&authkey=!AMQEjYeZvKqIUFI Getting to the point in the season where we're going to see alot of winter forecasts pop up. After last year, I'm kindly going to take them and file them away with a big "?". That's pretty much where DT seems to be right now too. I honestly don't have any expectations one way or another other than probably wet for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT has a great writeup for this upcoming winter, no predictions yet but his thoughts on where things stand.... https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!268&ithint=file%2cpptx&app=PowerPoint&authkey=!AMQEjYeZvKqIUFI Seems like the big key is when the El Nino starts to go from strong to moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the year of the WEDGE. there maybe some MEGA highs that drill in the confluence of the jet in NE. That could spell many possible ICING events vs SNOW events. Hell, who knows what will happen, but IMO NOAA needs to atleast up the SE to a much higher % and make it more widespread with the precip. just my 2c from a personal standpoint, I hope there's not a lot of wedge events because it rarely does me any good. Of course northeast GA and the Carolinas are a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Interesting looking at how we are going to finish October with how past Nino's looked....October will finish dry for us in what will amount to the last 3 weeks, assuming models are correct but these analogs are very wet for us from November on. These analogs are also very warm for us in Nov but cold for nations mid-section down to TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Another analog that get's thrown around is 40/41...interesting analog as it was the 2nd year of a 3 year nino and was moderate/strong in DJF 41. Not snowy for us as it was dry but was very cold in Jan/Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 One day Siberian snow cover explosion:Yesterday:Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Another analog that get's thrown around is 40/41...interesting analog as it was the 2nd year of a 3 year nino and was moderate/strong in DJF 41. Not snowy for us as it was dry but was very cold in Jan/Feb.... As many on here have stated, give us the cold and we'll take our chances on the precip. Plus it doesn't take much to provide some good winter events. I would guess some of our best winter cold patterns have had below normal precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Do not want cold and dry under any circumstances. That would be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Do not want cold and dry under any circumstances. That would be awful. I remember years back we had a very cold January with very little precip. But, the little bit of precip was 2" of snow. That 2" of snow stayed on the ground for weeks (...at least in the shade). So yes, give us the cold and we'll take our chances from there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Cold and dry is 110% better than hot and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Cold and dry is 110% better than hot and humid.Winner! Just ask Bricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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