CherokeeGA Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 LOL...one thing I was thinking about...it's going to be a long wait if we have to wait until end mid/end Jan to have a wintery pattern. Many/most will be cliff diving by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 LOL...one thing I was thinking about...it's going to be a long wait if we have to wait until end mid/end Jan to have a wintery pattern. Man when isn't it a long wait?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Many/most will be cliff diving by then. LOL...I will be first in line come Xmas when we are blowtorching. Man when isn't it a long wait?! It's going to be a really long wait when we nino blowtorch this winter away and then next year is a monumental Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I do this every year and get slammed, so chest guard, face mask and shin guards are on, and catcher's mitt is well oiled -- We (SE) seem to get 8 -12 weeks of "winter" in a "normal" year; that "winter" might be cool, cold, very cold or above average, rainy or snowy or dry, but the span between fall weather and spring weather is largely ("normally") 2 - 3 months give or take a couple of weeks. If you start "winter" in November, however it shakes out (cool, cold, very cold or above average), by February flowers are starting to pop. If winter starts say in early December, you can pretty well count on rolling it to the end of Feb; if "winter" is not starting until just about Christmas, it's usually March (when the real neat stuff happens) when winter really ends. Oh yes - there are years that differ in both directions, but if I were laying $$ on blind winter bet and wanted a cold and snowy X-Mas till March, I'd hope for fall to last into mid-December. No science - just observation over a lifetime ... th-1.jpg Haha that sounds just about right. By the way, I think you might get a flake or two this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 It's going to be a really long wait when we nino blowtorch this winter away and then next year is a monumental Nina. Yeah that's what I'm worried about too. All these cold winter forecasts are nice and, but I have this brooding feeling. It's kind of like seeing the black cat twice in the matrix. Everything looks good and all, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yeah that's what I'm worried about too. All these cold winter forecasts are nice and, but I have this brooding feeling. It's kind of like seeing the black cat twice in the matrix. Everything looks good and all, but.... Weeklies are interesting, very nino like weeks 3 and 4...blowtorch northern US and Canada with cool TX and active southern stream. Haven't seen 2m temps or precip anomalies yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Haha that sounds just about right. By the way, I think you might get a flake or two this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yeah that's what I'm worried about too. All these cold winter forecasts are nice and, but I have this brooding feeling. It's kind of like seeing the black cat twice in the matrix. Everything looks good and all, but.... Roger Smith went warm - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46928-ka-winter-outlook-2015-16-mine-also-others-please-post-here/?p=3729009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Roger Smith went warm - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46928-ka-winter-outlook-2015-16-mine-also-others-please-post-here/?p=3729009 Well that's pretty terrible. But it's what I expect too. But I'm cynical on winter, so maybe you should underweight my viewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well that's pretty terrible. But it's what I expect too. But I'm cynical on winter, so maybe you should underweight my viewpoint. What's it going to take to flip the switch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well that's pretty terrible. But it's what I expect too. But I'm cynical on winter, so maybe you should underweight my viewpoint. LOL...that's a brutal forecast, although we got 5" in 1906. We probably get a couple of meager 1-3" events in Feb. Even in 98 we got close to 3". Why I said the other day we have a better chance at sub 3" then 8"+. A torch winter would be funny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 What's it going to take to flip the switch? At least 2 years in a row with 10+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 LOL...I will be first in line come Xmas when we are blowtorching. It's going to be a really long wait when we nino blowtorch this winter away and then next year is a monumental Nina. 1997-98 followed by 1998-99 comes to mind for that. Neither of those were good for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 LOL...that's a brutal forecast, although we got 5" in 1906. We probably get a couple of meager 1-3" events in Feb. Even in 98 we got close to 3". Why I said the other day we have a better chance at sub 3" then 8"+. A torch winter would be funny.... Haha no it would not! You would not be laughing about a torch winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Haha no it would not! You would not be laughing about a torch winter. LOL...I managed to get through 2005-2008 and 2011-12 and 2012-13. Not much worse than 11/12 and 12/13 those were mega torches. Let's just pencil in 15/16 Nino torch and a 16/17 Nina dry torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 LOL...I managed to get through 2005-2008 and 2011-12 and 2012-13. Not much worse than 11/12 and 12/13 those were mega torches. Let's just pencil in 15/16 Nino torch and a 16/17 Nina dry torch. Ug. Thumbs down, friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Ug. Thumbs down, friend. Should be wet, so we got that going for us. We should buy stock in a mosquito treatment company, going to be a buggy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Roger Smith went warm - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46928-ka-winter-outlook-2015-16-mine-also-others-please-post-here/?p=3729009 And yet he mentioned 1982-83 as an analog for this winter. That winter featured one of Atlanta's greatest snowstorms of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 And yet he mentioned 1982-83 as an analog for this winter. That winter featured one of Atlanta's greatest snowstorms of all time. You can have a overall warm winter and still score a good event. All it takes is one event to put us above average for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 You can have a overall warm winter and still score a good event. All it takes is one event to put us above average for the season. The last week of January 2000 was awesome here. Nothing else the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The last week of January 2000 was awesome here. Nothing else the rest of winter.December 2000 was my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Ug. Thumbs down, friend. This any good? Curious to see how Cohen's theory works out this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 ^ Yeah, that looks pretty good, Pack. Let's just don't lose any over the next two weeks. In fact, let's add some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here's Oct 31, 2014. Based on the GFS forecast that Pack posted, looks like this year has a little more in Mongolia, a good bit less in Kazakhstan, and more on the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here's Oct 31, 2014. Based on the GFS forecast that Pack posted, looks like this year has a little more in Mongolia, a good bit less in Kazakhstan, and more on the western edge. Where would that put us in terms of SAI/OPI, roughly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Where would that put us in terms of SAI/OPI, roughly? OPI website died, lol For the SAI, my guess now based on Pack's map is that this is a pretty good year....better than normal....but not as good as the high end years of 2014 and 2009 (best fit slope line for snow increase is steeper in those years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The GFS continues to show cold holding over Siberia through the end of the month. This would just add to the snow totals. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_polar_216_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151023+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 OPI website died, lol For the SAI, my guess now based on Pack's map is that this is a pretty good year....better than normal....but not as good as the high end years of 2014 and 2009 (best fit slope line for snow increase is steeper in those years). Good deal. Thanks man! I wonder where the OPI guys went? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 OPI website died, lol For the SAI, my guess now based on Pack's map is that this is a pretty good year....better than normal....but not as good as the high end years of 2014 and 2009 (best fit slope line for snow increase is steeper in those years). Hopefully it can keep tracking along 12/13...that "should" be solid enough to put this theory to test again this winter. Although if we get a hugging GOA low it will be a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hopefully it can keep tracking along 12/13...that "should" be solid enough to put this theory to test again this winter. Although if we get a hugging GOA low it will be a waste. 12z gfs looks really solid for eursaia to close out the month. The biggest caveat in my mind is that strong Ninos can overwhelm things so the chances of atypical results for the season no matter what says what leading in are a bigger part of the equation than usual. I'm not nearly as gung ho (like most of us) about the SAI anymore. You can look at years like 12/13 where we had the big -AO but roasted. I'm sure Cohen can spin it and say his index was right with the -AO but the nasty AK vortex just ruined the temp part of the forecast. But the science was sound. Just like he's spinning last year's cold temps saying he nailed the cold east even in the face of the massive -AO bust. Leaves folks like us scratching our heads a bit. I mean, what is it? Is it cold east or -AO? You can't have it both ways. Another thing that has casually crossed my mind is what role is the significantly smaller ice cap playing in all this compared to just a decade or 2 ago? Is the open water near the pole (especially on the Russian side) aiding in affecting the storm track or providing more available moisture for storms in Sept/Oct? Is the seemingly recent increase in NH snowcover in the fall a byproduct of something else and not the same reasons the SAI science is built on? Seems possible to me but nothing more than a guess. One thing that is much more clear is the state of the Dec AO bleeding into Jan and even Feb. At least when it's anomalous. If we have strong +AO in Dec then all bets are off even if the SAI says otherwise. If we have a strong -AO in Dec then it's time to fire up the snowblowers this year...well....as long as there isn't a nasty spinning one eyed beast tucked east in the GOA or Bearing Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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