mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Good deal. Thanks man! I wonder where the OPI guys went?I'm down with OPI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'm down with OPI! Yeah you know I! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just looked a the graphs for Sept min Arctic ice extent and Oct Eurasian snow cover anomalies. Could be a total coincidence but it's hard to ignore the period from 1997 onward. Ice extent began is relatively quick and steady decline at the same time there has been a pretty large streak of substantial + eurasian snow cover anoms with only a a couple small neg years. Total coincidence? I know monthly extent and SAI are not the same thing but you still gotta wonder... Sept ice mins: Oct eurasian anomlaies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just looked a the graphs for Sept min Arctic ice extent and Oct Eurasian snow cover anomalies. Could be a total coincidence but it's hard to ignore the period from 1997 onward. Ice extent began is relatively quick and steady decline at the same time there has been a pretty large streak of substantial + eurasian snow cover anoms with only a a couple small neg years. Total coincidence? I know monthly extent and SAI are not the same thing but you still gotta wonder... Sept ice mins: icemin.JPG Oct eurasian anomlaies: eurasian oct anoms.JPG Maybe more open water allows more moisture in the air that can be rung out when the land mass temps start to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 ^ BobChill, you need to read less, and post more in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 ^ BobChill, you need to read less, and post more in here LOL...agreed and thanks Bob! It's funny we don't want a steaming Nino as we worry about pac air flooding us and we don't want a Nina which is perceived to be dry warmth. Shouldn't be that hard to get a moderate Nino but ...or maybe this is the super Nino that delivers copious amounts of snow, not likely :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 ^ BobChill, you need to read less, and post more in here LOL...agreed and thanks Bob! It's funny we don't want a steaming Nino as we worry about pac air flooding us and we don't want a Nina which is perceived to be dry warmth. Shouldn't be that hard to get a moderate Nino but ...or maybe this is the super Nino that delivers copious amounts of snow, not likely :-( Thanks guys. You know I root for the SE. We both live south of 40N. One ingredient we both need more often than not is simple pure luck. It almost NEVER comes easy except for those rare years when the stars align. We're most likely going to have something in common this year...we'll either celebrate together at the end of the season or do a bunch of shots in March in an effort to forget the entire thing. I kinda doubt the SE and MA will have a big disparity compared to climo. And to be completely honest, if you guys kick ass and we scrape by so-so I'll still be stoked for you folks. It's definitely a year worth being optimistic for until it's obvious that things have gone awry. IMO- that time won't come until late Jan at the earliest if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I do this every year and get slammed, so chest guard, face mask and shin guards are on, and catcher's mitt is well oiled -- We (SE) seem to get 8 -12 weeks of "winter" in a "normal" year; that "winter" might be cool, cold, very cold or above average, rainy or snowy or dry, but the span between fall weather and spring weather is largely ("normally") 2 - 3 months give or take a couple of weeks. If you start "winter" in November, however it shakes out (cool, cold, very cold or above average), by February flowers are starting to pop. If winter starts say in early December, you can pretty well count on rolling it to the end of Feb; if "winter" is not starting until just about Christmas, it's usually March (when the real neat stuff happens) when winter really ends. Oh yes - there are years that differ in both directions, but if I were laying $$ on blind winter bet and wanted a cold and snowy X-Mas till March, I'd hope for fall to last into mid-December. No science - just observation over a lifetime ... th-1.jpg Based on my memory and always having been a weather fanatic, and especially a winter weather fanatic, I would pretty much totally agree with you. In the 60's and 70's, and we had colder and snowier winters back then, I remember it seems that our winters never got going till around Christmas or New Years. I recall our first cold snaps many years occurring on or shortly after Christmas Day, and seems we always had winter through March, or till March. One of the biggest snowstorms I can remember came on March 25th 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 We are getting Nov off to a toasty start, this should be fun...but like pcbjr said, better to have a warm Nov. That's a nice ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 We are getting Nov off to a toasty start, this should be fun...but like pcbjr said, better to have a warm Nov. That's a nice ridge. 6z GFS continues to show the warmer pattern for the start of November. It will be hard for many to handel the "Indian Summer" type weather. But you guys know my stance, bring it on! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151024+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Absolutely. We need about 6 -7 weeks of toast, then flip. Below normal before Dec 15 or after Mar 1 typically doesn't cut it. I'd gladly take 5-10 below avg and some El Niño moisture from 12/20 to 1/30 and call it a win. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 We are getting Nov off to a toasty start, this should be fun...but like pcbjr said, better to have a warm Nov. That's a nice ridge. The ridge in the GoA is new, which I found interesting. It certainly diverges from the weeklies and other earlier guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 6z GFS continues to show the warmer pattern for the start of November. It will be hard for many to handel the "Indian Summer" type weather. But you guys know my stance, bring it on! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151024+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model You ought to be doing cartwheels man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 You ought to be doing cartwheels man! Yes sir! I think this is a great setup. Warm early/mid November with a switch to cold at the end of the month; which hopfully would signify the prodominate pattern for our winter. **now if we get the warm November and then our winter sucks; I'll have to slink away for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 6z GFS continues to show the warmer pattern for the start of November. It will be hard for many to handel the "Indian Summer" type weather. But you guys know my stance, bring it on! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151024+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Start it warm, end it cold. That's a good sign for what the overall winter pattern may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 6z GFS continues to show the warmer pattern for the start of November. It will be hard for many to handel the "Indian Summer" type weather. But you guys know my stance, bring it on! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151024+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model It also is hard to keep looking for that cold pattern at the end of the GFS run, you look up and it's February , and it's still just a fantasy! Let's hope that doesn't happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Start it warm, end it cold. That's a good sign for what the overall winter pattern may bring. Warm staying in the near term and cold staying in the long range. Yep, sounds about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Couple of new winter predictions are out #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Couple of new winter predictions are out #1 I saw a couple of other similar ones, all were very JB'ish. Interesting seeing the drop in 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 #2 Cool! Those would mean about 3" for ATL , about 9-10" for me! I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Can you just blend all the strong+ Nino's for a forecast...hmmm, not bad for Oct. - ridge in SW Canada - trough in east - low sw of aleutians - +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The warm November sounds great to me. Have that rubber band snap back just in time for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The warm November sounds great to me. Have that rubber band snap back just in time for winter.The rubber band will snap, in April! 2011/12 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I will take my 10.2 inches being predicted and cash out right now. It should be a fun winter to track this year with a -NAO and if we get the -AO and the MJO starts moving into phase 7-8 in late December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 If you believe in the warm November = cold winter theory; or not: It does look like we will be in a warm pattern at least for the first part of the month. NAO, AO, and PNA all point to warm pattern: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml GFS shows the same thing: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=240ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151026+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 If you believe in the warm November = cold winter theory; or not: It does look like we will be in a warm pattern at least for the first part of the month. NAO, AO, and PNA all point to warm pattern: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml GFS shows the same thing: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=240ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151026+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Since 1950 we (RDU) have had 3 moderate+ nino's that were clunkers (1964, 1992, 1998) and all had very cold Novembers. Pre-1950 we had 5 moderate+ nino's that were clunkers and all were cold for Nov (one was actually neutral in RDU but conus was a torch). So since 1870 we have had roughly 21 moderate+ nino's and there hasn't been a single one that had a warm Nov where we finished below our 100 year running average (7.3"). Now, the sample size is very small for moderate+ nino's with warm Nov's which is actually interesting that's it small (7 total). I guess you could explain the small sample size due to mod Nino's are active and we typically would be average to below due to rain/could cover, This Nov/temp correlation probably means nothing but is interesting and I am sure I just jinxed it for us, LOL. But I will be rooting for a warm Nov. We may torch the first 10 days of Nov and bottom may drop out last half of month. Plus, if we stay active that may mute our warm ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I don't mind a warm November but I definitely don't want a warm December. If there's any month I want cold and snow its December. It just makes the Christmas season that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I don't mind a warm November but I definitely don't want a warm December. If there's any month I want cold and snow its December. It just makes the Christmas season that much better. Well, for our area it's roughly a coin flip. Half the moderate+ nino's were cold for Dec. But, if you restrict it to strong+ nino's then only 1 out 6 was cold (2009). High odds of a warm Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Since 1950 we (RDU) have had 3 moderate+ nino's that were clunkers (1964, 1992, 1998) and all had very cold Novembers. Pre-1950 we had 5 moderate+ nino's that were clunkers and all were cold for Nov (one was actually neutral in RDU but conus was a torch). So since 1870 we have had roughly 21 moderate+ nino's and there hasn't been a single one that had a warm Nov where we finished below our 100 year running average (7.3"). Now, the sample size is very small for moderate+ nino's with warm Nov's which is actually interesting that's it small (7 total). I guess you could explain the small sample size due to mod Nino's are active and we typically would be average to below due to rain/could cover, This Nov/temp correlation probably means nothing but is interesting and I am sure I just jinxed it for us, LOL. But I will be rooting for a warm Nov. We may torch the first 10 days of Nov and bottom may drop out last half of month. Plus, if we stay active that may mute our warm ups. Thanks Pack! That adds a little bit of stats to this theory. So now lets test it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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