Winter 15-16 Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Here is how we did in previous strong+ nino's...but we are on a quite a rough patch the past 30 years, until that changes I am pessimistic.  I keep thinking our luck has to change but really it doesn't.  It's like in roulette where red keeps hitting so you bet black thinking it has to change, it really doesn't.

 

I do expect our mountains to be in good shape and the usual suspects (MA to the NE) will always do well.  I think we have a much better chance at sub 3" winter than we do a 8"+ winter.

 

1958 - 7.9"

1966 - 12.3"

1973 - 11.3"

1983 - 11.8"

1998 - 2.6"

 

Agree.

 

I think that's just being pessimistic. Of course it could end up that way, but from what everyone has been saying, that would really go against the odds.

 

The odds?  Most of the winter forecasts I've read have quite a few caveats in them, even though they sound bullish.  The so called "odds" favored a blockbuster winter here last year.  It wasn't.  Most of the winter forecasts I read each year somehow manage a cold and snowy east.  But for whatever reason, we seem to avoid the snowy part, even though temps the past couple of years have been below average.  This winter is pretty unprecedented in terms of analogs, meaning the cold and snowy forecasts that are coming out, while seemingly based on physical phenomena that would yield cold and snow, have an elevated risk of being wrong.

[packbacker]

I think that's just being pessimistic. Of course it could end up that way, but from what everyone has been saying, that would really go against the odds.

Pessimistic or realistic....odds are that we have a average to below average snowfall winter. Thats been the trend over the past 30 years whether it's cyclical or something else.

[packbacker]

Agree.

 

 

The odds?  Most of the winter forecasts I've read have quite a few caveats in them, even though they sound bullish.  The so called "odds" favored a blockbuster winter here last year.  It wasn't.  Most of the winter forecasts I read each year somehow manage a cold and snowy east.  But for whatever reason, we seem to avoid the snowy part, even though temps the past couple of years have been below average.  This winter is pretty unprecedented in terms of analogs, meaning the cold and snowy forecasts that are coming out, while seemingly based on physical phenomena that would yield cold and snow, have an elevated risk of being wrong.

Agree, if you want to see a snowy setup you can and if you want to see a non-snowy winter you can.

[Southern Track]

Agree.

The odds? Most of the winter forecasts I've read have quite a few caveats in them, even though they sound bullish. The so called "odds" favored a blockbuster winter here last year. It wasn't. Most of the winter forecasts I read each year somehow manage a cold and snowy east. But for whatever reason, we seem to avoid the snowy part, even though temps the past couple of years have been below average. This winter is pretty unprecedented in terms of analogs, meaning the cold and snowy forecasts that are coming out, while seemingly based on physical phenomena that would yield cold and snow, have an elevated risk of being wrong.

I believe it all depends on whether we get a -NAO this year. That was the curveball last winter. Everyone was calling for it and we never had it, so it was cold then moderation the rain.

[FallsLake]

The main thing I'm looking at is the overall pattern at the end of October going into the first half of November. We joke about the "October storm", but really it's the established pattern. The theory (..I know Wooly worm territory) infers that strong "trougheness" over the eastern US, during this time period, would signal at least a warm start to winter.  

 

Halloween storm - Now usually if we have a strong eastern trough, there will be a strong storm or two. Also if there is not a strong eastern trough we can still get a storm; but just less likely.

 

 

      

 

 

[NCSNOW]

This signal here will tell you whether your gonna roll 777 this winter or come out with empty pockets.

 

 

Positive PNA

The positive phase consists of above normal geopotential heights over the western U.S. and below normal geopotential heights over the eastern U.S. This correlates to ridging over the western U.S., and deep troughing over the east. The net result of the height field pattern in this phase is that it forces cold air residing in Canada to plunge southeastward, which results in below normal temperatures over the eastern U.S. and above normal temperatures over the western U.S.

• Research at the SCO indicates that a positive PNA, especially during an El Niño year, produces an above average number of winter weather events in NC

500mb Height Anomalies During a Positive PNA
Surface Temperature Anomalies During a Positive PNA

In the positive phase, above average geopotential heights are seen over the western U.S., and below average geopotential heights are seen across the eastern U.S. This results in warm air moving much farther north than normal over the western U.S., while cold, Canadian air is forced southward over the eastern U.S. resulting in below normal temperatures.

 

Negative PNA

The negative phase features troughing and below normal geopotential heights over the western U.S. and ridging with above normal geopotential heights over the eastern U.S. The result is below average temperatures for the western U.S., and above average temperatures over the eastern U.S.

• Research at the SCO indicates that a negative PNA typically results in a reduced potential for winter
  weather in NC

500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative PNA
Surface Temperature Anomalies During a Negative PNA

The negative phase of the PNA pattern features below average geopotential heights over the western U.S., and above average geopotential heights across the eastern U.S. This results in deep troughing over the western U.S., which allows cold air from western Canada to drain southward into this region. In the eastern U.S., warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean is able to travel northward, often resulting in above normal temperatures and more humid conditions.

Current PNA Conditions

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[NCSNOW]

 

[Brick Tamland]

It's important to think positive. 

[JoMo]

It's important to think positive. 

 

Oh great, now you've doomed everyone to a record +AO/+NAO. Way to go.....

[Cold Rain]

I believe it all depends on whether we get a -NAO this year. That was the curveball last winter. Everyone was calling for it and we never had it, so it was cold then moderation the rain.

 

There are several correlations that seem to suggest a +PNA and -AO/NAO state for this winter.  However, the Aleutian low is going to play a big role, as to where it sets up.  A flood into North America of mild air will render the NAO less impactful.  There are some encouraging signs and some other areas that we need to watch with a side eye.  But we'll definitely keep our fingers crossed for the elusive wintertime -NAO, because it is important to us, as you said.

[packbacker]

There are several correlations that seem to suggest a +PNA and -AO/NAO state for this winter. However, the Aleutian low is going to play a big role, as to where it sets up. A flood into North America of mild air will render the NAO less impactful. There are some encouraging signs and some other areas that we need to watch with a side eye. But we'll definitely keep our fingers crossed for the elusive wintertime -NAO, because it is important to us, as you said.

What's a -NAO? Is it that weather thing that gives the MA 100" winters?

[Southern Track]

There are several correlations that seem to suggest a +PNA and -AO/NAO state for this winter. However, the Aleutian low is going to play a big role, as to where it sets up. A flood into North America of mild air will render the NAO less impactful. There are some encouraging signs and some other areas that we need to watch with a side eye. But we'll definitely keep our fingers crossed for the elusive wintertime -NAO, because it is important to us, as you said.

Completely agree. I was just saying that if we had ev n a neutral to slightly NAO last year with the Pacific cooperating like it was it could have been pretty special like they were forecasting.

[Cold Rain]

What's a -NAO? Is it that weather thing that gives the MA 100" winters?

 

I don't know.  Do we get those anymore?

 

Completely agree. I was just saying that if we had ev n a neutral to slightly NAO last year with the Pacific cooperating like it was it could have been pretty special like they were forecasting.

 

Yeah, you're right.  Would have been nice to see that set up.  If we get a big -NAO this year, along with a cooperative Pacific, it could be a really special year.  If If If If.....

[jburns]

It's important to think positive. 

 

Really?  What effect does that have?

[NRVwxfan.]

What's a -NAO? Is it that weather thing that gives the MA 100" winters?

Its something that Pepperidge Farms remembers.

[Brick Tamland]

Really?  What effect does that have?

 

Well, a positive PNA usually has a good effect for snow. That's why it's important to think positive. It was a pun. 

[franklin NCwx]

Really? What effect does that have?

lol..

[pcbjr]

If we get a big -NAO this year, along with a cooperative Pacific, it could be a really special year.  If If If If.....

 

does that mean I could get snow way down here in north Florida  ?

 

 

just kidding, of course

[mackerel_sky]

Snow is coming

Snow is coming snow is coming

Snow is coming

Snow is coming

Snow is coming

Snow is coming

Snow is coming

Snow is coming...

I'll let y'all know how the positive thoughts/ vibes work come April!

[Cold Rain]

Not liking the rumors of warming in Siberia to end the month or the later peak in El Nino.  Maybe we can add a heavy increase in solar activity soon.

[packbacker]

Not liking the rumors of warming in Siberia to end the month or the later peak in El Nino. Maybe we can add a heavy increase in solar activity soon.

LOL, all the years had little dips. If Cohen isn't worried neither should we, if this stupid thing doesn't produce a -AO this winter then it should be put to bed. This is assuming it's keeps progressing. It's tracking right along 12/13 and ahead of 09/10.

Solar should help us this winter, last year had a ill timed peak, this fall solar is falling sharply (knock on wood).

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

[Cold Rain]

LOL, all the years had little dips. If Cohen isn't worried neither should we, if this stupid thing doesn't produce a -AO this winter then it should be put to bed. This is assuming it's keeps progressing. It's tracking right along 12/13 and ahead of 09/10.

Solar should help us this winter, last year had a ill timed peak, this fall solar is falling sharply (knock on wood).

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

 

Hope you're right sir!

[griteater]

Not liking the rumors of warming in Siberia to end the month or the later peak in El Nino.  Maybe we can add a heavy increase in solar activity soon.

LOL, all the years had little dips. If Cohen isn't worried neither should we, if this stupid thing doesn't produce a -AO this winter then it should be put to bed. This is assuming it's keeps progressing. It's tracking right along 12/13 and ahead of 09/10.

Solar should help us this winter, last year had a ill timed peak, this fall solar is falling sharply (knock on wood).

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_ea_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

 

No big solar spikes so far - http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

CR - personally, I don't really see that much has changed with the timing of the Nino peak...just a little noise in the crowd.  Also, I don't think it matters much.  97-98 wasn't a late peak for example (peaked in late Nov), but had a warm outcome.  91-92 and 86-87 both peaked later, but 91-92 was warm, while 86-87 was cool.

 

Pack - regarding the '09 to '15 comparison on Eurasia snow, the slope of the '09 curve is greater than this year (snow started out low, then increased rapidly), so a higher snow advance rate in '09 even though the snow extent is higher than '09 right now.  Unless the snow extent / snow advance is exceptionally large or exceptionally anemic, it's hard to put too much into it's predictive capacity...and obviously, it failed last year with the high numbers...seems to me like we will be more middle of the road this year (maybe greater than normal on extent though).

[FallsLake]

The GFS really doesn't show much warming for Siberia going into the 1st week of November; at least looking at 850 temps:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_polar_276_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_ht&fhr=276&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151022+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Cold Rain]

No big solar spikes so far - http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

CR - personally, I don't really see that much has changed with the timing of the Nino peak...just a little noise in the crowd.  Also, I don't think it matters much.  97-98 wasn't a late peak for example (peaked in late Nov), but had a warm outcome.  91-92 and 86-87 both peaked later, but 91-92 was warm, while 86-87 was cool.

 

Pack - regarding the '09 to '15 comparison on Eurasia snow, the slope of the '09 curve is greater than this year (snow started out low, then increased rapidly), so a higher snow advance rate in '09 even though the snow extent is higher than '09 right now.  Unless the snow extent / snow advance is exceptionally large or exceptionally anemic, it's hard to put too much into it's predictive capacity...and obviously, it failed last year with the high numbers...seems to me like we will be more middle of the road this year (maybe greater than normal on extent though).

 

I hope we can get a favorable Pacific wrt the Aleutian low and at least some periodic blocking.  That seems like a lot to ask for, but who knows.

[SnowNiner]

No big solar spikes so far - http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

CR - personally, I don't really see that much has changed with the timing of the Nino peak...just a little noise in the crowd.  Also, I don't think it matters much.  97-98 wasn't a late peak for example (peaked in late Nov), but had a warm outcome.  91-92 and 86-87 both peaked later, but 91-92 was warm, while 86-87 was cool.

 

Pack - regarding the '09 to '15 comparison on Eurasia snow, the slope of the '09 curve is greater than this year (snow started out low, then increased rapidly), so a higher snow advance rate in '09 even though the snow extent is higher than '09 right now.  Unless the snow extent / snow advance is exceptionally large or exceptionally anemic, it's hard to put too much into it's predictive capacity...and obviously, it failed last year with the high numbers...seems to me like we will be more middle of the road this year (maybe greater than normal on extent though).

 

Yeah, put me in the camp where I think the whole eurasian snow cover is a bit overrated.  I'm not really following that at all, especially after last year's debacle.  I'm more interested in the Aleutian Low position and if we can get a +PNA/-EPO for the winter, giving us general "troughiness" in the east.  If we do I think we'll do ok, especially in a moist Nino.  I think because of the unique +PDO and the SSTs, there's a good chance of a nice pacific, even with the nino.  I'm hopefull.  Give us a -AO/-NAO and that'll be icing on the cake...literally! Could go from ok, to a great winter if that happens.  We'll see. 

 

Also count me in as wanting a nice warm November....no early snows!

[Daniel Boone]

The odds used to be a cold November favoured a cold winter. Something like 60-40%.

[Cold Rain]

The odds used to be a cold November favoured a cold winter. Something like 60-40%.

 

I think the correlation changes every year, depending on how November is shaping up!

[pcbjr]

I think the correlation changes every year, depending on how November is shaping up!

 

 

I do this every year and get slammed, so chest guard, face mask and shin guards are on, and catcher's mitt is well oiled --

 

We (SE) seem to get 8 -12 weeks of "winter" in a "normal" year; that "winter" might be cool, cold, very cold or above average, rainy or snowy or dry, but the span between fall weather and spring weather is largely ("normally") 2 - 3 months give or take a couple of weeks. If you start "winter" in November, however it shakes out (cool, cold, very cold or above average), by February flowers are starting to pop. If winter starts say in early December, you can pretty well count on rolling it to the end of Feb; if "winter" is not starting until just about Christmas, it's usually March (when the real neat stuff happens) when winter really ends.

 

Oh yes - there are years that differ in both directions, but if I were laying $$ on blind winter bet and wanted a cold and snowy X-Mas till March, I'd hope for fall to last into mid-December.

 

No science - just observation over a lifetime ...

 

                          

[packbacker]

I think the correlation changes every year, depending on how November is shaping up!

LOL...one thing I was thinking about...it's going to be a long wait if we have to wait until end mid/end Jan to have a wintery pattern.