Winter 15-16 Discussion

[packbacker]

That's why there are so many busted snow forecasts here just hours before the event is supposed to start, and it busts both ways. We always seem to be right on the line for some reason. 

 

If want to get off the line start doing your -NAO dance.

[Brick Tamland]

If want to get off the line start doing your -NAO dance.

 

Does that dance also give us a +PNA?

[packbacker]

Does that dance also give us a +PNA?

If we get a -NAO not to concerned about a +PNA.

[Brick Tamland]

If we get a -NAO not to concerned about a +PNA.

 

I have read others say the same for a -NAO if we get a +PNA. Sounds like we need at least one of those to have a shot.

[Cold Rain]

Cold Rain's Winter Forecast:

 

I'm forecasting a blockbuster winter for the south, mid-south, and especially the southeast this winter, hearkening back to the infamous harsh winters of yesteryear.  Obviously, a very strong, basin-wide El Nino event is well underway and will imprint itself solidly onto the weather pattern as we work through the fall and into the winter.

 

Overall, I expect this winter to be front-loaded, with major cold and snow during the middle part, and a strong cold and snowy finish.  After a slight intermission toward the end of January, winter will return with a vengeance as the calendar flips to February.

 

Temps should end up above normal generally across the norther tier of the country, with below, to much below, to much, much below over the southeast, especially focused in a small corridor through central/eastern NC.  Blocking should be robust and heavily favored, influenced by such strong SAI, SCE, and solar signals.

 

Precipitation should be lacking across the north and abundant across the south, given such a potent Nino.

 

Regarding storm tracks, a true southern stream storm track will be favored, due to an extremely enhanced subtropical jet.  The primary track should be generally west to east and out to sea.  Plenty of available cold should provide numerous opportunities for snow and ice across the south, mid-south and upper-SE, particularly focused across the southern half of Wake Co., NC.  The secondary track should originate off the SE coastline and move northward, due to strong and frequent blocking near Greenland.  This track should enhance snow and ice chances across coastal and piedmont sections and on up the coast, favoring again the general southern Wake Co. area for the greatest impacts.  The least common storm track, probably only occurring 5 or 6 times, will originate in the Gulf, progress northeast off the SE coast, stalling as strong phasing with abundant northern stream energy occurs, and then continuing NNE up the coastline.  This Big Dog track should deliver copious snowfall to the coastal plain, piedmont, and mountains, especially enhanced in the southern Wake Co. area.

 

In summary, many will look back upon this year as a truly historic producer of harsh wintry weather, not rivaled since the legendary winters of yore.  Here are the maps:

 

 

 

 

 

[griteater]

That was good Cold Rain.  You can't lose.  If it doesn't happen, you can say you were only kidding. If it happens, you will be the king prognosticator of weather boards of all time...and more importantly, it will have been an awesome winter   

[packbacker]

Cold Rain's Winter Forecast:

 

I'm forecasting a blockbuster winter for the south, mid-south, and especially the southeast this winter, hearkening back to the infamous harsh winters of yesteryear.  Obviously, a very strong, basin-wide El Nino event is well underway and will imprint itself solidly onto the weather pattern as we work through the fall and into the winter.

 

...

 

So your going 1936 on us...I concur, although your shorting us a couple hundred percent.

[MichaelJ]

Cold Rain's Winter Forecast:

 

I'm forecasting a blockbuster winter for the south, mid-south, and especially the southeast this winter, hearkening back to the infamous harsh winters of yesteryear.  Obviously, a very strong, basin-wide El Nino event is well underway and will imprint itself solidly onto the weather pattern as we work through the fall and into the winter.

 

Overall, I expect this winter to be front-loaded, with major cold and snow during the middle part, and a strong cold and snowy finish.  After a slight intermission toward the end of January, winter will return with a vengeance as the calendar flips to February.

 

Temps should end up above normal generally across the norther tier of the country, with below, to much below, to much, much below over the southeast, especially focused in a small corridor through central/eastern NC.  Blocking should be robust and heavily favored, influenced by such strong SAI, SCE, and solar signals.

 

Precipitation should be lacking across the north and abundant across the south, given such a potent Nino.

 

Regarding storm tracks, a true southern stream storm track will be favored, due to an extremely enhanced subtropical jet.  The primary track should be generally west to east and out to sea.  Plenty of available cold should provide numerous opportunities for snow and ice across the south, mid-south and upper-SE, particularly focused across the southern half of Wake Co., NC.  The secondary track should originate off the SE coastline and move northward, due to strong and frequent blocking near Greenland.  This track should enhance snow and ice chances across coastal and piedmont sections and on up the coast, favoring again the general southern Wake Co. area for the greatest impacts.  The least common storm track, probably only occurring 5 or 6 times, will originate in the Gulf, progress northeast off the SE coast, stalling as strong phasing with abundant northern stream energy occurs, and then continuing NNE up the coastline.  This Big Dog track should deliver copious snowfall to the coastal plain, piedmont, and mountains, especially enhanced in the southern Wake Co. area.

 

In summary, many will look back upon this year as a truly historic producer of harsh wintry weather, not rivaled since the legendary winters of yore.  Here are the maps:

 

 

Temps 2015-2016.jpg

 

Storm Tracks 2015-2016.jpg

 

2015-2016 Snowfall.jpg

Ok, who are you and what have you done with Cold Rain 

[Cold Rain]

That was good Cold Rain.  You can't lose.  If it doesn't happen, you can say you were only kidding. If it happens, you will be the king prognosticator of weather boards of all time...and more importantly, it will have been an awesome winter   

 

Haha Exactly.

 

So your going 1936 on us...I concur, although your shortening us a couple hundred percent.

 

And also exactly...although I'm giving PCBJRCJDCJRPCJ down in Gainesville, FL a bit more than that analog.

[BullCityWx]

I'm interested in buying one of your 1935-1936 models. Can we make this happen?

[BullCityWx]

I have a gut feeling some of our normal suspects would still be bitching after a 35-36 repeat. 

[Brick Tamland]

So your going 1936 on us...I concur, although your shorting us a couple hundred percent.

 

 

Hey, we're due. 

[FallsLake]

Cold Rain's Winter Forecast:

 

I'm forecasting a blockbuster winter for the south, mid-south, and especially the southeast this winter, hearkening back to the infamous harsh winters of yesteryear.  Obviously, a very strong, basin-wide El Nino event is well underway and will imprint itself solidly onto the weather pattern as we work through the fall and into the winter.

 

Overall, I expect this winter to be front-loaded, with major cold and snow during the middle part, and a strong cold and snowy finish.  After a slight intermission toward the end of January, winter will return with a vengeance as the calendar flips to February.

 

Temps should end up above normal generally across the norther tier of the country, with below, to much below, to much, much below over the southeast, especially focused in a small corridor through central/eastern NC.  Blocking should be robust and heavily favored, influenced by such strong SAI, SCE, and solar signals.

 

Precipitation should be lacking across the north and abundant across the south, given such a potent Nino.

 

Regarding storm tracks, a true southern stream storm track will be favored, due to an extremely enhanced subtropical jet.  The primary track should be generally west to east and out to sea.  Plenty of available cold should provide numerous opportunities for snow and ice across the south, mid-south and upper-SE, particularly focused across the southern half of Wake Co., NC.  The secondary track should originate off the SE coastline and move northward, due to strong and frequent blocking near Greenland.  This track should enhance snow and ice chances across coastal and piedmont sections and on up the coast, favoring again the general southern Wake Co. area for the greatest impacts.  The least common storm track, probably only occurring 5 or 6 times, will originate in the Gulf, progress northeast off the SE coast, stalling as strong phasing with abundant northern stream energy occurs, and then continuing NNE up the coastline.  This Big Dog track should deliver copious snowfall to the coastal plain, piedmont, and mountains, especially enhanced in the southern Wake Co. area.

 

In summary, many will look back upon this year as a truly historic producer of harsh wintry weather, not rivaled since the legendary winters of yore.  Here are the maps:

 

 

Temps 2015-2016.jpg

 

Storm Tracks 2015-2016.jpg

 

2015-2016 Snowfall.jpg

You can't lose; we're getting our warm November...

[mackerel_sky]

Ok, who are you and what have you done with Cold Rain

I think I'm in the 200-400% area, just based off of those high resolution graphics !

[JoshM]

You know these rainfall maps lately sure look a lot like that 1935-1936 snowfall map

[Cold Rain]

I'm interested in buying one of your 1935-1936 models. Can we make this happen?

 

Yeah man.  Got a paypal account?  We can get this done!

[SnowNiner]

Haha Exactly.

 

 

And also exactly...although I'm giving PCBJRCJDCJRPCJ down in Gainesville, FL a bit more than that analog.

 

lol, that's about as much a chance of being right as any other winter forecast. 

 

My favorite was the part about the primary track, secondary track, and "big dog track with phasing and stalling". 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

If want to get off the line start doing your -NAO dance.

literally the only place in the entire southeast less than 100% of normal is near my area. You can't make this stuff up. I guess this map proves that I really do have bad luck and its not just my imagination.

[Isopycnic]

Robert wxsouth says ice ice baby!

Cold rain says massive amounts of chewy ice over brick's back yard.

[NCummingWx93]

WxSouth's map follows the stats that Grit put out...ATL up GSP to CLT and west towards the mountains.   The mountains will do well, very well this winter, unless we get some freakish dry nino.

I'm 45 minutes away from 3200'. I envision myself having to drive up there this winter a few times. Will probably be quite a few mid 30 rains at my location 1200' but the North GA Mnts, especially up at 3000'+ will probably score. Probably double digits.

[NCummingWx93]

That's why there are so many busted snow forecasts here just hours before the event is supposed to start, and it busts both ways. We always seem to be right on the line for some reason. 

That is very true here in North Georgia as well. It's like every mile gain northward and you fair better. Every mile counts. Except in wedges where sometimes the higher elevations warm faster than the lower during peak of WAA. Feb 25th was a great example of a highly bustable temp/snow forecast. From Cedartown to Cumming to Clarksville, every mile north of that line, you gradually had higher amounts and south, you were screwed.

[packbacker]

Weeklies sure are ugly for the month of Nov, but that goes along with it's seasonal which had a evolving winter pattern in Dec and great Jan/Feb.  Going to be a long 6-8 weeks.

[calculus1]

CR, you should have started your own winter forecast thread.  Now, I won't be able to find this all important forecast when we later hearken back to this year of lore.

[pcbjr]

Haha Exactly.

 

 

And also exactly...although I'm giving PCBJRCJDCJRPCJ down in Gainesville, FL a bit more than that analog.

 Don't know who the rest of those folks are, but I do appreciate the good wishes!

 

pcbjr

[pcbjr]

You can't lose; we're getting our warm November...

which is exactly what the doctor ordered ...

[deltadog03]

I just finished my temp maps...Nothing earth shattering from what many have seen so far.  I honestly don't prefer to do these, but they are kind of fun.  Precip ones coming, and it may surprise some.  

[packbacker]

I just finished my temp maps...Nothing earth shattering from what many have seen so far.  I honestly don't prefer to do these, but they are kind of fun.  Precip ones coming, and it may surprise some.

Looking forward to it!

[Cold Rain]

You can't lose; we're getting our warm November...

 

I knew you'd be happy about that!

 

lol, that's about as much a chance of being right as any other winter forecast. 

 

My favorite was the part about the primary track, secondary track, and "big dog track with phasing and stalling". 

 

I'm predicting at least one big dog for real for the southeast this year.

 

Robert wxsouth says ice ice baby!

Cold rain says massive amounts of chewy ice over brick's back yard.

 

I would have drawn the snow minimum over Wake Forest, but the map was too small.  Maybe I'll do a zoomed in view later.

 

CR, you should have started your own winter forecast thread.  Now, I won't be able to find this all important forecast when we later hearken back to this year of lore.

 

Ha, I didn't want to undermine the other people who took actual real time and made real forecasts.  From a general standpoint, the cold/warn anomalies and snowfall anomalies are near where I think they will wind up, though it would probably make sense to shift the cores a bit west, though.  Obviously, the degree of anomalies is exaggerated.  But hey, we can hope!

 

 Don't know who the rest of those folks are, but I do appreciate the good wishes!

 

pcbjr

 

I think you will see a flake or two this year good sir!

[JoMo]

You guys are gonna love this forecast.

 

http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook

[Cold Rain]

Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out and breaks down like this:

 

November:  Temps at or slightly below normal for the deep south and southeast.  Precip is below normal across the deep south and above for the southeast coast from FL to VA and north.

 

December:  Temps are slightly above normal for the deep south and southeast.  Precip is above normal across the deep south and southeast.  Precip is slightly below normal across western sections of TN and northern MS.

 

January:  Temps are much below normal across the entire southeast and much of the central and eastern parts of the country (slightly below normal is shown along the Gulf coast).  Precip is at or above normal across most of the deep south and southeast.

 

February:  Temps are far below across much of the southeast (outside of immediate coastal sections), with much below temps shown across most of the central and eastern US.  Precip is below normal for the mountains and west and across much of the deep south.  The Piedmont sections and east toward the coastal plain maintain normal to above normal precip.

 

March:  Temps are much below across the south-central US and slightly below across generally most  of the US, save the northern tier, including the deep south and southeast.  Precip is shown as normal across most of the SE with above normal across western sections of the deep south and south-central US.

 

Looks pretty good.  The summary of the text suggest that after a mild start, January should quickly turn cold with blocking more abundant as we work through the end of the month, culminating with a Frigid February.  Given the active STJ, there should be more than a couple opportunities for snow and ice across the deep south and southeast.