packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Interesting changes the past couple of weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf Allen's winter forecast.. I would love that. Not only does he have 150% to 200% of normal snowfall for most of the southeast, he also thinks the arctic outbreaks will be less this winter than the last two, and it won't be an extremely cold winter. A lot of snow, but without the extreme cold would be the best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Interesting changes the past couple of weeks... I wonder if the hurricane could have affected the area that far south (off SA coast). edit: You can see where the hurricane was by the two small below normal spots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I wonder if the hurricane could have affected the area that far south (off SA coast). edit: You can see where the hurricane was by the two small below normal spots.. I agree, I am sure it did. It's interesting see the shift west of the warm pool in nino areas. Shows up better when you watch the loop... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I like what I am seeing with the ocean temps. If the trend continues into November, with the warm pool in the north Pacific, it could be a rock and roll winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Cold Rain... 1958-1988 we had a -NAO in a winter month (DJF) 50% of the time. RDU averaged around 9" per season during this time. 1989-2015 we had a -NAO in a winter month (DJF) 29% of the time. RDU averaged around 5" per season since 89/90. Umm....can someone put a call in for a -NAO this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I like what I am seeing with the ocean temps. If the trend continues into November, with the warm pool in the north Pacific, it could be a rock and roll winter. It would be nice if the el nino would wane sooner, just as Pack shows above; but (as we discussed) is this just a temporary drop because of the hurricanes influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Cold Rain... 1958-1988 we had a -NAO in a winter month (DJF) 50% of the time. RDU averaged around 9" per season during this time. 1989-2015 we had a -NAO in a winter month (DJF) 29% of the time. RDU averaged around 5" per season since 89/90. Umm....can someone put a call in for a -NAO this winter. Dial it up man. It would definitely help this year! If we don't get blocking this winter, I have a feeling we'll be a little toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Dial it up man. It would definitely help this year! If we don't get blocking this winter, I have a feeling we'll be a little toasty. 2nd year nino snowfall for 58/59...thanks to JoMo for posting the link to this. #2ndYrNino It's fun plotting these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Look at this nino, talk about suppression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Look at this nino, talk about suppression... Wow. Bet there was good blocking that year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 ^ That's pretty awesome. I'll take 400%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 2nd year nino snowfall for 58/59...thanks to JoMo for posting the link to this. #2ndYrNino It's fun plotting these. I know, I was kind of addicted to plotting them for awhile. My new obsession seems to be jumping in my time machine and checking out past big snowy weather events using the old paper maps they digitized. (DjVu plugin required) http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I know, I was kind of addicted to plotting them for awhile. My new obsession seems to be jumping in my time machine and checking out past big snowy weather events using the old paper maps they digitized. (DjVu plugin required) http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Thanks! This will keep me busy the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Wow. Bet there was good blocking that year! I don't even have to check, the period between 58-70 had great blocking and was one of the greatest stretches we have been through. Kind of like what the MA and BOS is going through now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I don't even have to check, the period between 58-70 had great blocking and was one of the greatest stretches we have been through. Kind of like what the MA and BOS is going through now. Yeah Lookout's area was at the end of that chart with 750%. Don't know what the avg. is over in Athens but that is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Look at this nino, talk about suppression... Man, January cratered in Charlotte that year. 2nd coldest January of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 WxSouth has his winter outlook now. Seems like he has most of the above average snow in the mountains. Doesn't sound as bullish for the Triangle as Allan and others are. I was hoping for more of that here. My Winter Outlook...First I'll say I can be very wrong, or right for the wrong reasons, etc. There's no magic bullet to getting a Winter right , and inevitably I'll miss some spots. Nature can --and does--things unpredicted. A lot.All that being said, I do it for fun, and possibly a learning experience. Several things lead me to believe the Winter will be a Wild one, with lots of change-ups. It may become a blockbuster Winter somewhere in the Eastern sections, possibly even the upper Southeast, when all is said and done. Spring may be delayed. The highlights :1) Many storms. Many cold rain events2) Not as cold as last two Winters, but the cold will synch up with moisture, more often3) The shear number of storms tracking through the Gulf statistically means increased chances of one, two or more will bring snow, ice down South, esp. the Apps, and MidAtlantic4) High confidence of above normal snow, ice in western VA, western Carolinas, east TN, north AL, GA because of the drought evolution, and how Nino's tend to follow this evolution5) Sea Surface Temps promote big tall west Ridges again, like last 2 Winters. Warm Oceans, Cold Continent6) Seasonal models show incredible Canada blocking, which argues for Deep South, Eastern Winter Storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I don't even have to check, the period between 58-70 had great blocking and was one of the greatest stretches we have been through. Kind of like what the MA and BOS is going through now. I agree with that. We definitely had something working in our favor during those years. We got snowstorms every winter back then. Might not have been but one but it was usually a big one, and some ice storms thrown in from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 WxSouth has his winter outlook now. Seems like he has most of the above average snow in the mountains. Doesn't sound as bullish for the Triangle as Allan and others are. I was hoping for more of that here. IMO we are going to have temperature problems this winter. Prepare yourself for quite a few 30s and rain events. This winter will be even more altitude dependent than usual as far as snow amounts go. You can see it in several met forecasts already where they are calling for above or much above normal in the mountains, but it quickly goes back to normal and even below as you move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 IMO we are going to have temperature problems this winter. Prepare yourself for quite a few 30s and rain events. This winter will be even more altitude dependent than usual as far as snow amounts go. You can see it in several met forecasts already where they are calling for above or much above normal in the mountains, but it quickly goes back to normal and even below as you move east. I can stomach the 30s and rain as long as we have a few snow events, too. Allan had us at above normal in his outlook, so we'll see. If we are going to have a lot of 30s and rain, I hope we at least get to average snowfall totals to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 IMO we are going to have temperature problems this winter. Prepare yourself for quite a few 30s and rain events. This winter will be even more altitude dependent than usual as far as snow amounts go. You can see it in several met forecasts already where they are calling for above or much above normal in the mountains, but it quickly goes back to normal and even below as you move east. Could be for sure. But I think that's the "el-nino" effect being forecasted where the cold air is getting cut off by the pacific and not getting pushed far enough south. My hope is that like the last two years we get a nice tall +PNA/-EPO where the cold air will be available off and on throughout the winter. Persistance for the win (and SSTs). -NAO or no, that's my hope. IF that happens along with Chris Farley's personna, I think we could have a pretty good year in the piedmont for snow. Add a -NAO to that and we could have a great, wild ride. Lot of ifs, but it all starts with how the N Pacific sets up in late December/early January. Bad spacing of the vortex and it could be a really bad winter for snow. All or nothing!! That's my winter forecast!! Edit: Question, when a met says "western carolinas", does that include Charlotte? Right in the middle I never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I can stomach the 30s and rain as long as we have a few snow events, too. Allan had us at above normal in his outlook, so we'll see. If we are going to have a lot of 30s and rain, I hope we at least get to average snowfall totals to make up for it. WxSouth's map follows the stats that Grit put out...ATL up GSP to CLT and west towards the mountains. The mountains will do well, very well this winter, unless we get some freakish dry nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 We (RDU) had temp problems last Feb on both of our bigger events and that was really cold period. One turned in a big sleet storm, the other was a sloppy rain/snow mix south of 64. We always have temp problems. I think we are going to see a lot of 87 type events, where west of 85 gets snow and east of that is a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 We (RDU) had temp problems last Feb on both of our bigger events and that was really cold period. One turned in a big sleet storm, the other was a sloppy rain/snow mix south of 64. We always have temp problems. I think we are going to see a lot of 87 type events, where west of 85 gets snow and east of that is a cold rain. That's why there are so many busted snow forecasts here just hours before the event is supposed to start, and it busts both ways. We always seem to be right on the line for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Yeah if I had to draw a line I would agree with packbacker that it would run Atlanta through GSP, GSO and up into Charlottesville VA and to the west, less so to the east of that line but still a few events there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 WxSouth has his winter outlook now. Seems like he has most of the above average snow in the mountains. Doesn't sound as bullish for the Triangle as Allan and others are. I was hoping for more of that here. My Winter Outlook... First I'll say I can be very wrong, or right for the wrong reasons, etc. There's no magic bullet to getting a Winter right , and inevitably I'll miss some spots. Nature can --and does--things unpredicted. A lot. All that being said, I do it for fun, and possibly a learning experience. Several things lead me to believe the Winter will be a Wild one, with lots of change-ups. It may become a blockbuster Winter somewhere in the Eastern sections, possibly even the upper Southeast, when all is said and done. Spring may be delayed. The highlights : 1) Many storms. Many cold rain events 2) Not as cold as last two Winters, but the cold will synch up with moisture, more often 3) The shear number of storms tracking through the Gulf statistically means increased chances of one, two or more will bring snow, ice down South, esp. the Apps, and MidAtlantic 4) High confidence of above normal snow, ice in western VA, western Carolinas, east TN, north AL, GA because of the drought evolution, and how Nino's tend to follow this evolution 5) Sea Surface Temps promote big tall west Ridges again, like last 2 Winters. Warm Oceans, Cold Continent 6) Seasonal models show incredible Canada blocking, which argues for Deep South, Eastern Winter Storms. Just the word ICE on his map depicts Miller B type storms. The Triangle is usually "in the game" for many of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Just the word ICE on his map depicts Miller B type storms. The Triangle is usually "in the game" for many of these storms. When is the last time we have had a bad ice storm? Dec 02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 When is the last time we have had a bad ice storm? Dec 02? Two winters back we had ice storm after ice storm going through March. This was one of them covering my peach blooms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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