FallsLake Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out and breaks down like this: November: Temps at or slightly below normal for the deep south and southeast. Precip is below normal across the deep south and above for the southeast coast from FL to VA and north. December: Temps are slightly above normal for the deep south and southeast. Precip is above normal across the deep south and southeast. Precip is slightly below normal across western sections of TN and northern MS. January: Temps are much below normal across the entire southeast and much of the central and eastern parts of the country (slightly below normal is shown along the Gulf coast). Precip is at or above normal across most of the deep south and southeast. February: Temps are far below across much of the southeast (outside of immediate coastal sections), with much below temps shown across most of the central and eastern US. Precip is below normal for the mountains and west and across much of the deep south. The Piedmont sections and east toward the coastal plain maintain normal to above normal precip. March: Temps are much below across the south-central US and slightly below across generally most of the US, save the northern tier, including the deep south and southeast. Precip is shown as normal across most of the SE with above normal across western sections of the deep south and south-central US. Looks pretty good. The summary of the text suggest that after a mild start, January should quickly turn cold with blocking more abundant as we work through the end of the month, culminating with a Frigid February. Given the active STJ, there should be more than a couple opportunities for snow and ice across the deep south and southeast. One thing --> I would say the warm November is looking more real. Then I think we go cold at the first of December; at least for a couple of weeks. Some long range models do show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 One thing --> I would say the warm November is looking more real. Then I think we go cold at the first of December; at least for a couple of weeks. Some long range models do show this. I don't get that either, warm Nov in the east looks like a given but it's a long month. He is going really cold for Jan/Feb, colder than last Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 You guys are gonna love this forecast. http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook Man, he just went for broke didn't he? I liked his intro and breakdown of the difference between this NINO and the 97-98. But not even "above normal" snow. CLT was right on the line of "lots of snow". lol. That's crazy to think it was actually on TV. Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out and breaks down like this: November: Temps at or slightly below normal for the deep south and southeast. Precip is below normal across the deep south and above for the southeast coast from FL to VA and north. December: Temps are slightly above normal for the deep south and southeast. Precip is above normal across the deep south and southeast. Precip is slightly below normal across western sections of TN and northern MS. January: Temps are much below normal across the entire southeast and much of the central and eastern parts of the country (slightly below normal is shown along the Gulf coast). Precip is at or above normal across most of the deep south and southeast. February: Temps are far below across much of the southeast (outside of immediate coastal sections), with much below temps shown across most of the central and eastern US. Precip is below normal for the mountains and west and across much of the deep south. The Piedmont sections and east toward the coastal plain maintain normal to above normal precip. March: Temps are much below across the south-central US and slightly below across generally most of the US, save the northern tier, including the deep south and southeast. Precip is shown as normal across most of the SE with above normal across western sections of the deep south and south-central US. Looks pretty good. The summary of the text suggest that after a mild start, January should quickly turn cold with blocking more abundant as we work through the end of the month, culminating with a Frigid February. Given the active STJ, there should be more than a couple opportunities for snow and ice across the deep south and southeast. That would be perfect. Even knowing how terrible all the forecasts came out last year, having a solid nino gives me more hope this year that we could have a good year, no matter what the forecasts say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I don't get that either, warm Nov in the east looks like a given but it's a long month. He is going really cold for Jan/Feb, colder than last Jan/Feb. You can get alot of insitu wedges to develop in Nov that will damper the effects of the big pig ridge showing up on the 500mb maps. With a active stj thats going to start increasing its influence as we flip the calendar to N,D,J,F all thanks to el-nino. Amazing what clouds will do along with 15 hours of darkness to the avg daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Here's a link to LC's forecast. I don't know if that Nov forecast is going to work out at all if the Euro weeklies are right. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/uvI2m7ygRy4 Looks like he triple weighted 2009, 2014, and double weighted 1997, 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This is starting to have that 2014/15 feel to it! I know things are different, but one can't help but recall all the super cold / snowy forecasts that came out about this time of year and the analogs and the snowcover talk in Eurasia !? Just like Deja-vu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This is starting to have that <insert any winter here> feel to it! I know things are different, but one can't help but recall all the super cold / snowy forecasts that came out about this time of (every) year and the analogs and the snowcover talk in Eurasia !? Just like Deja-vu! FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 ..... I think you will see a flake or two this year good sir! I do hope you're right - it's not at all of unheard of. Thanks for the PM btw, and you got the initials right, and my dog's and my neighbor's ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 1.2 region sure has weakened, wonder if it perks back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 This winter might be warmer than normal but it won't be because it's similar to 97/98, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 1.2 region sure has weakened, wonder if it perks back upMaybe a little, but the big warming is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Maybe a little, but the big warming is doneDon't we want it to leak now and decline towards winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I do hope you're right - it's not at all of unheard of. Thanks for the PM btw, and you got the initials right, and my dog's and my neighbor's ... Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Don't we want it to leak now and decline towards winter?Mac - to me the strength and the base of the Nino are more important than the specifics of when it peaks and fades. For example, 97-98 peaked on the early side but was warm because it it had a strong peak and was strongly east based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Mac - to me the strength and the base of the Nino are more important than the specifics of when it peaks and fades. For example, 97-98 peaked on the early side but was warm because it it had a strong peak and was strongly east basedThis years is not east based, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The CFS has spoken for the month of Nov, predicting +3 to +4K anomalies, which if correct would be very warm for the month. I went back and looked at the past 30 years of any warm enso's that had warmth up and down the east coast for Nov...uh oh... If you restrict it to mod+ nino's the warm Nov's usually bode well for snowy winters though. 1902-03 was the only mod+ nino that had a warm Nov that didn't translate to a snowy winter for us... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20151031.201511.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Good stuff pack. We just need to get through November and into December. I'll trade a very warm thanksgiving for a cold Christmas any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 This years is not east based, correct? My belief is that it will remain basin wide this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 My belief is that it will remain basin wide this year Good deal. Thanks Grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The eastern ENSO regions appear to have peaked and are on the decline per the latest CFS. This ENSO is either going to be basin wide or west based per latest ENSO models. If we can get some good blocking, no reason this winter can't perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Hopefully the euro is correct on the nino plumes. The western areas seem to maintain well into Feb/Mar. This is what we need to lock in a pattern like we saw in 09/10. That dynamic of the warm western ENSO regions set's up the couplet of a strong aleutian low/colder waters north of hawaii/with the warmer waters to the south(image 2). Combine that with -AO and you get the locked in pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 And here's Jan/Feb 2003 and 2010 SLP anomalies. Notice the strength of the aluetian low. It's displaced further east in 2010, but the principle is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 2, 2015 Author Share Posted November 2, 2015 Couple of big AO spikes in Nov....ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Couple of big AO spikes in Nov....ugly htts11.postimg.org/57qeh8nc3/image.png The PV looks to be getting its act together...when should we start seeing Cohen's theory get going with some blows to the PV, Dec? The ++AO already looks daunting and it's only Nov 2nd. Going to suck if we have to wait three months for blocking, if it materializes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The PV looks to be getting its act together...when should we start seeing Cohen's theory get going with some blows to the PV, Dec? The ++AO already looks daunting and it's only Nov 2nd. Going to suck if we have to wait three months for blocking, if it materializes... Yeah pack I think December first of January if it materializes. The one good thing is that these ao and nao spikes have occurred in October and now in November. I'm just glad we are not in December heading into January looking at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Couple of big AO spikes in Nov....ugly Tranquillo Amigo... it's only November. This is will be an incredible winter. The SAI, the PDO, the dropping solar cycle, along with the strong Nino.... I'm all-in. Get the shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Tranquillo Amigo... it's only November. This is will be an incredible winter. The SAI, the PDO, the dropping solar cycle, along with the strong Nino.... I'm all-in. Get the shovels ready. Agreed, I really like what is happining right now. To have a warm November, the indices need to be bad right now(remeber see-saw). Get us closer to December and that's when I hope to see the flip (-AO, +PNA, and who knows even a -NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 winter post is almost here.......ready?? ok, that sounded dumb hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Here is the full post from my facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons https://twitter.com/wxmanchris Thanks for looking, please share and like my pages (if you want) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Best of luck with your forecast, Chris. I really mean that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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