famartin Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I have two family members taking flights today, and I was wondering what you think about their departure times. One is going out of Baltimore @ 2:30, pretty sure that is going to be fine. The other is my younger sister, flying for the first time alone, and she is going out of B-More at 4:40. Should we have to worry about her flight getting delayed? There are already 40% delays. Though, most don't seem very long. http://www.flightview.com/airport/BWI-Baltimore-MD/delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Based off the radar it looks like we will clear out around 12-1pm. That leaves us a few hours of possible sunshine and added instability before the storms roll through around 5-6. Cold breeze here now but we'll have to wait and see how far north that warm front makes it.I don't know. Looks like a lot of rain developing in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 26s26 seconds ago 10% ...there's going to be a fine line between just heavy rain/elevated crap and sups. For the moment, I think I'm on the "elevated crap" side. Steady NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Dr. Greg Forbes gives Maryland, east va and DC a 4 on the torcon scale.Highest of the year I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 Radar not looking the most favorable for a successful chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Rain just doesn't want to move out, was hoping some clearing would be working in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 We sure need the warm front to shift mm=north or we'll just have elevated convection, might get us heavy rain but we need to get in the warm sector or be right along the front to have much chance at severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I'm on the verge of being out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 i think we still have time to get some sun later this afternoon, but it's still kinda nice to have an all day rainer in summer every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Enhanced risk remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 i think we still have time to get some sun later this afternoon, but it's still kinda nice to have an all day rainer in summer every now and then. Unless, of course, you already have 10" of rain for the month. We don't need a rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 People seem ready to bail too early, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 10 percent tor remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 People seem ready to bail too early, no? I don't give up until I run out of beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I don't give up until I run out of beer! I need to make a beer run. I am out (of beer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Give me clouds and steady rain any day. So far, today is 10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Made it up to 77 before the sun went back in. Few small storms starting to pop in E WV and SW VA. Gonna try and get over to Lynchburg this afternoon and try out my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 10 percent tor remains Thought that might be moved a tad further south, or dropped to 5% everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I don't give up until I run out of beer! Haha same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The HRRR is obscene with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The HRRR is obscene with precip. Yeah....we'd have problems for sure if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Not to be a negative nelly, but it's 1pm and the precip. keeps back building west of DC. Hoping for some clearing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Well you all know what this rain all day means for Mrs. J... I am baking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Well you all know what this rain all day means for Mrs. J... I am baking! Awesome! Can I put in a request????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Red Box likely....80% CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 271656Z - 271930ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF SERN VA BY18-19Z WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLSAND A FEW TORNADOES.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER PARTS OFERN VA AND ESPECIALLY NC WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS INPLACE. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE DESTABILIZATION VIATHETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND FARTHER N INTO MD LATE THISAFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE W...LOW-LEVEL FLOW ISEXPECTED TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER...WHICH WILL MAINTAINFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FOR SUPERCELLSAND TORNADOES GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILLBE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEEXISTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILST HAVING INFLOW ROOTED IN THEHIGHER-CAPE AIR MASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Both the HRRR and NCEPs WRF ARW have 10"+ contours near DC for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 HRRR has 8" of rain in Columbia and drizzle at DCA. Lets see if that verifies, we need that line of storms to stall soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That's almost as good as a TOR in my book. 10" of rain does a lot more damage and is a lot deadlier than your average tornado. Probably need an EF3+ to to even compete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That's almost as good as a TOR in my book. This. Let's have this stall for weeks and accumulate 100" of rain. I enjoy extreme weather, after reading about all that rain coming in I'm looking out the window like a snowstorm is approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I'll take the 10" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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